I know that some of you guys acted on my “Bet Against BKS” idea yesterday and are already up huge on the trade. I was perhaps too cautious in my actions yesterday and missed the first $4 of so of the move down in BKS since I nailed the analysis yesterday:
“I think we’ll see BKS top out somewhere here in the mid $20s and that it’s likely a single digit stock by the end of next year.”
The stock was at $24 when I wrote that. It just fell through $20. I’m looking to add a tiny bit of puts in BKS now, buying puts dated out into January of 2013 with strike prices from $17.50 to $20. If I pay $5 for the $20 January 2013 put, then the stock has stock has to fall below $15 before then (or fall fast from here after I buy it) for me to make money. I’m also looking to borrow a few BKS shares to sell short too. I’m worried that this thing can pop back into the $20s in the near-term though, so as always, I’m using a tranche approach and leaving myself some room to build the position over time.