Facebook traded flat in the pre-market and then opened up about 2% above last night’s close and hasn’t looked back. There stock is up 12% in the closing hour.
Nearly a billion shares have hit the market today, meaning that nearly $20 billion of equity hit which of course could have swamped the buyers out there, which is what everybody has been looking at with Facebook for the last few months. Not a week has gone by on the TradingWithCody.com Weekly Live Q&A for the last month that didn’t include at least one question about the Facebook lock up expiration. And for months before it was the first thing anybody would say when they’d talk about Facebook.
At least that event is behind us. It doesn’t mean that we can now sound the all-clear on FB. It does mean that the fundamentals will start to matter more over the next few months and that if Facebook can show continued monetization on the mobile front, that the stock will likely continue today’s big rally. The analysts probably won’t have much insight into the mobile monetization trend until the next quarterly report, which means for the next two months that Facebook could end up being a high-beta version of the broader markets, much like I expect Apple will be unless the xMas iPad/iPhone iSeason booms. In that scenario, of course, the analysts have much more clarity on selling trends for Apple than they do for Facebook, so Apple can rally into year-end off raised numbers.
That said, analyst upgrades and buzz will also be a factor for Facebook into year-end. I’m not selling any of my FB common or calls despite today’s big pop and continued rally all day.
I’m also going ahead and buying another tranche of Apple calls dated out into April with $660 strikes and above.
Meanwhile, our recent cash-raising and our LPS, Apollo and other shorts and puts continue to help hedge the portfolio into this decline. Don’t get crazy on the buy side, but don’t panic out of the revolutionary longs.