• Skip to main content
  • Skip to secondary menu
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Trading With Cody

Long-term Revolution Investments and Real-time Trades from Cody Willard


  • Twitter

  • YouTube

  • iTunes Podcasts

  • SoundCloud
  • Trade Alerts
  • Latest Positions
  • All Archives
  • Chat Room
  • Books
  • About/FAQ/More Info
    • Testimonials
    • FAQ
    • Contact
    • Privacy Policy
    • Support
    • Money management services
    • Public Speaking
    • Cancellation Policy
    • Login

End of quarter rhyming? And some facts on Central Bank gold buying

March 27, 2013 by Cody Willard Leave a Comment

Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick
I’m sweeter and thicker than a chico stick
Here’s an ice cream cone honey take a lick
I go to Bay Plaza and catch a flick
Wore my Timberland boots so I can stomp ticks – Nice & Smooth

Remember when I wrote this about how the markets were likely to pop and rally hard right on the first of the year this year?

“My feet-to-fire near-term market analysis isn’t nearly so bearish. You often see me use sentiment as my primary near-term markets driver and when sentiment gets extremely bullish or extremely bearish in one direction or the other, I’ll try to take the other side. At other times, especially in today’s markets, it’s politics and propaganda that often drive the near-term and the sentiment that they drive can often further feed on the direction of the markets.

My point is this — do you guys remember the worries that everybody had last year about taxes rising? Do you realize that despite the incessant pounding of the panic drum by the mainstream media over this year’s fiscal-cliff negotiations that we went through the same damn thing last year?

And do you remember how despite the mainstream media’s obsession over the same issues peaking at about the same time last year, do you remember how the markets traded to kick off the year?

Last year’s big rally literally started on December 28, 2012, as the forces of panicky headlines and tax-avoidance selling were theoretically the primary near-term drivers of the markets.

That means, we probably need to already stop with the near-term bearishness I wrote about at the top of the markets last week and start to get ready for a potential, if obvious, pop in the new year. This sure ain’t scientific and that’s why I call it a “Feet-to-fire” analysis, but as Mark Twain told us, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”

Wouldn’t shock if me the end of the quarter or just a day or two off there, this market puts in a short-term top. That would mean this Friday or thereabouts would be the near-term top, if the rhyming continues.

Nice & Smooth – Sometimes I Rhyme Slow

Here’s something to think about that fits into my thesis of buying gold coins and bullion in the meantime:

The following table lists the countries that have added to their gold reserves this year, while the second one tallies those that have been selling. You’ll see how recently each country has reported, along with its percentage increase.

Changes in Central Bank Gold Reserves in 2012 (Million Troy Ounces)
 
Year-End 2011
YTD 2012
Last Reported
Net Change
Percent Change
Countries Increasing Reserves        
Turkey
6.28
11.56
Dec
5.283
84.1%
Russia
28.39
30.79
Dec
2.405
8.5%
Bank for International Settlements
15.6
16.71
Dec
1.114
7.1%
Brazil
1.08
2.16
Dec
1.08
100.0%
Philippines
5.12
6.2
Nov
1.079
21.1%
Kazakhstan
2.64
3.71
Dec
1.07
40.5%
South Korea
1.75
2.71
Nov
0.965
54.9%
Iraq
0.19
0.96
Nov
0.773
405.3%
México
3.41
4
Dec
0.596
17.3%
Paraguay
0.021
0.263
Sept
0.242
1152.4%
Ukraine
0.9
1.14
Dec
0.239
26.7%
Belarus
1.21
1.37
Dec
0.164
13.2%
Tajikistan
0.15
0.2
Dec
0.05
33.3%
Brunei
0.06
0.09
Oct
0.031
50.0%
Mozambique
0.08
0.11
Oct
0.025
37.5%
Serbia
0.46
0.48
Nov
0.022
4.3%
Jordan
0.41
0.43
May
0.02
4.9%
Kyrgyz Republic
0.08
0.1
Dec
0.014
25.0%
Greece
3.59
3.6
Dec
0.008
0.3%
Mongolia
0.11
0.12
Nov
0.004
9.1%
Suriname
0.071
0.074
Dec
0.003
4.2%
South Africa
4.02
4.02
Nov
0.003
0.0%
Moldova
0
0.002
Dec
0.002
 
Bulgaria
1.28
1.28
Dec
0.001
0.0%
Pakistan
2.071
2.072
Dec
0.001
0.0%
           
Subtotal Gross Increases  
15.2
 
Changes in Central Bank Gold Reserves in 2012 (Million Troy Ounces)
 
Year-End 2011
YTD 2012
Last Reported
Net Change
Percent Change
Countries Decreasing Reserves        
Sri Lanka
0.32
0.12
Sept
-0.204
-62.5%
Germany
109.19
109.04
Dec
-0.159
-0.1%
Czech Republic
0.4
0.37
Dec
-0.028
-7.5%
Macedonia
0.22
0.22
Dec
-0.001
0.0%
France
78.3
78.3
Dec
-0.001
0.0%
Malta
0.01
0.01
Dec
-0.001
0.0%
           
Subtotal Gross Decreases  
-0.39
 
       
 
 
Total Net Change      
14.8
 
Sources: IMF, CPM Group. Data as of 1-31-13.

Based on current data, the net increase in central bank gold buying for 2012 was 14.8 million troy ounces – and that’s before the final 2012 figures are in for all countries.

 

 

Related posts:

Thoughts on RIMM before its earnings report tonight...
China/US Conflict Potential, AI Hype, James Dean, And Much More
Cody Kiss & Tell: post-FOMC, starter positions, revolution stocks & more
Trend Trading, Government "Help," Bannon vs Bailouts, Buying Bitcoin & More
Latest positions and a trim...
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • iTunes Podcasts
  • SoundCloud

Filed Under: Free Trading and Investing Articles by Cody, Trading

Disclosure: At the time of publication, the firm in which Willard is a partner and/or Mr. Willard had positions in some of the stocks mentioned above although positions can change at any time and without notice.

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Primary Sidebar

Must Read Articles (Free)

How To Invest In Business Models From Outer Space
Everything You Need To Know About Cryptocurrencies

You are not currently logged in.








» Register
» Lost your Password?

Subscribe now. You can cancel at anytime.

Buy with Crypto

Footer

This does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation of any security or cryptocurrency or token any other product or service by Cody Willard or any other third party. Furthermore, nothing in this is intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice and nothing in this should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security or cryptocurrency or token or to engage in any investment strategy or transaction. You are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, investment strategy, security or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. You should consult your business advisor, attorney, or tax and accounting advisor regarding your specific business, legal or tax situation.

Copyright © 2023 · Magazine Pro on Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in