Take the other side! A Recent History of Hype and the Markets

Hype is a funny thing.

Remember when Greece’s many sovereign and bank debt crises kept tanking the stock market around here?

• The Europe crisis jumps the shark Feb. 13, 2012 | By Cody Willard
• Revolution Investing links: Greece collapse is bullish, Dick Cheney on twitter and more Sept. 12, 2011 | By Cody Willard
• Size matters: Greece vs Apple April 5, 2011 | By Cody Willard
• Revolution Investing Video: Don’t Panic over Greece  May 25, 2010 | MarketWatch.com

Remember when Italy’s elections were front page news on every financial paper and the market would freak out?

• Check your emotions: Italy is what they want you to focus on next April 17, 2012 | By Cody Willard
• The current theater of Italy, Spain, EU turmoil Dec. 6, 2011 | By Cody Willard
• Looking past the many current crises Aug. 9, 2011 | By Cody Willard
• Revolution Investing: Why you should be buying into this panic RIGHT NOW May 25, 2010 | By Cody Willard

Remember when everybody was saying Apple, Amazon and Google were in a bubble…back when they were less than half today’s price?

• The best tech investor I know is buying these stocks right now Sept. 15, 2011 | By Cody Willard
• Tech investors need a wake up Jan. 3, 2011 | By Cody Willard
• How to invest in the coming app bubble Sept. 29, 2010 | By Cody Willard
• Buy Google and Apple to bet big on the biggest market in history: apps Aug. 17, 2010 | By Cody Willard

Remember when everybody was saying that the subprime crisis would be contained back in 2006 and 2007?

• Get Set for Coming Mark-to-Market Pain Aug. 31, 2007 | By Cody Willard
• Hard Ending for Easy-Money Cycle June 25, 2007 | By Cody Willard
• RealMoney – Commentary
• Complacency Emerges From Subprime Ugliness March 13, 2007 | By Cody Willard
• Get Real About Real Estate – Apr. 10, 2007 | By Cody Willard

Notice the one common trading theme with all of the above examples? Taking the other side of each eventually turned out to be the right side of the trade.

On the other hand, I have learned the hard way many times over the years that forcing trades and chasing performance / momentum is a recipe for mistakes.

As for the current portfolio and set-up, we still have lots of longs in the best, most revolutionary companies on the planet which will continue to long-term outperform the broader stock markets for as long as the bull run continues.

We’ve caught lots of huge gains when we’ve bought those previous panics over the last few years. And long before that, in 2007, by closing out our stock portfolio entire before the big crash in 2008. And long before that, by having launched a hedge fund at the bottom in October 2002.

I’ve also made mistakes along the way, of course, but my career arc and returns along with those of most of my long-time investors and subscribers have been very well rewarded with this strategy of riding the economic and stock market cycles with contrarianism, patience, homework, discipline, vigilance, and continual education.

As the forces of the forced risk trade and momentum-chasing at new all-time highs vs. the extended nature of this year’s steady rally action play themselves out, I’m not going to be forcing anything here myself. Be patient, as there are many great pitches coming our way. We want to be at limber, loose, liquid and up at bat when those pitches come.