One item I want to mention before I get into it here. I get a lot of questions about how to filter reality and reliable news from propaganda and hype. I have created RevolutioNews.com, a news site totally curated by yours truly, for my readers. You can see my commentary on each news item and then you can click through to the actual article or video or whatever source I’m citing.
We’re in the midst of a decade-long drought here in Lincoln County and throughout most of New Mexico. Most people thought a few years ago that the drought had lasted longer and gotten drier than possible. I thought so last year, after the Little Bear Forest Fire destroyed much of the county’s forests and 30 acres of my own land.
It’s much, much worse this year. We need rain. Badly. I tend to the land daily, I’ve scattered hundreds of pounds of grass seed, I’ve masticated most of the dead trees and cleaned up much of the debris, and I’ve laid a lot of burnt dead trees on their side against the slope of the hills. But no matter what I do, if a huge rain were to come bless this land in a big blast as the weather is wont to do around here when it does rain, the topsoil is at risk of being washed away which would leave the land in very bad shape.
Trader’s thought of the day – Just like the drought, the market’s move higher has been and can continue to last longer and go higher than most people think. There’s a chance of a big forest fire, ie blow-off top, taking the DJIA to the 17,000 level that I’ve talked about before. Then again, just like my land, without some serious tending to and active help, any big rain that might finally come through could wash out my land and leave a moonscape in its place.
As far as our stocks go, Apple is still continuing its now seemingly steady ascent. That will last til it won’t. I figure that near $500 a lot of weakhanded retail shareholders (and some pros too) will start to sell as the stock nears their cost basis. Til then, I’m holding our Apple steady.
And as of this morning, Google is now worth more than Microsoft. Google glass is getting hyped and trashed all at the same time and it’s not even here yet. Meanwhile, Android’s marketplace dominance and Google’s nicely executed moves to mobile ads are contributing to the valuation. And of course, Microsoft is suffering as their tablet/smartphone offerings flounder and the PC business that they dominate shrinks.
Years ago, when Apple was a tiny fraction of the valuation of Microsoft, I predicted it would someday be worth more than Softee. And now Google, a company that just came public less than a decade ago, has done the same. Will Facebook or Amazon or some other “horsemen” tech company be the next to take over Softee’s once seemingly untouchable valuation lead?
And our Ciena and Juniper positions are both rocking today, continuing their moves higher. As long as the markets stay strong and in rally mode, each of those two are likely to see even bigger relative gains.
As far as shorting goes, I think CoinStar and LPS are looking like the two names I will want to add to next, probably using puts. But no trades for me this week yet. Tend to your land (portfolios) and be prepared for both more drought sunshine and, at the same time, be prepared for a big rain as best as you can.