Howdy dowdies. Let’s roll.
Q. Where is DDD going to be December 31st 2014?
A. Wow, talk about a specific but arbitrary date to pick! If the market’s haven’t crashed and are still in bubble mode, $DDD will be at $150 by end of next year. If the markets have pulled back or settled in, it’ll be around $100 by end of next year. And if the markets have crashed, it’ll be at $30 by the end of next year. Feet to fire, I’d guess around $100 at end of next year. It’ll be a long, wild road no matter what $DDD and the markets do over the next 15 months, because I plan on holding my basket of 3-D printing stocks probably for another 5-10 years.
Q. Thank you for your response earlier! Which 3D stocks are in your “basket”? The usual suspects? DDD, SSYS, VJET, XONE? Any thoughts you can share with us regarding ONVO?
A. I’m long $DDD $SSYS and $XONE. Read this for the full analysis on why I bought a basket of 3-D printing stocks earlier this year: Trade Alert Preview of my upcoming “Ten potential 10-Baggers” book.
From Yahoo Finance about ONVO “Organovo Holdings, Inc. develops three-dimensional (3D) bioprinting technology for creating functional human tissues on demand for research and medical applications. The companys 3D NovoGen bioprinting technology works across various tissue and cell types, and allows for the placement of cells in desired pattern. It offers NovoGen MMX Bioprinter, a commercial hardware and software bioprinter platform to create tissues for bioprinting research and development. The company was founded in 2007 and is based in San Diego, California.” I have a tough time getting and keeping an edge on biotech-related plays, so that’s probably not the 3-D stock for me to be advising you on. I know what I know, you know?
Q. Since you are bullish on 3D stocks, do you plan to get involved with VJET or are you happy with what you already have in 3D stocks?
A. Will let it settle down and I will get to know it for a while before making a move on $VJET.
Thanks for answering all my questions Cody!
Thanks for subscribing!
Q. In view of their ER, in your opinion how realistic is it that AAPL will break $600 by early Jan? In other words what do you think is the probability that the iPad and IPhone sales figures will be strong enough? Thanks again!
A. I think $550-$575 by early January is more likely than $600 no matter how well the iPad and iPhone are rumored to be selling.
Q. What happens to Apple and its stock if it doesn’t create any new product categories in the next few years and instead just keeps trying to milk the iphone and ipad?
A. $AAPL would probably get stuck around $450-600 for the next year or 18 months if no new product/category introductions.
Q. Hi Cody, surprised no one has mentioned FB yet. What are your thoughts on its report tonight and the reaction tomorrow?
A. $FB is a battlefield, bragging-rights, cockfight of a stock right now. All the bulls want to be able to give an “I told you so” after they finally bought the stock after last quarter’s huge pop and on into the recent all-time highs. The bears want to be able to say “I told you it was only a matter of time” since they’ve been short the stock for the last 150% move up. Meanwhile, there’s a whole contingent of money managers who have been waiting for a big pullback so they can finally get on the $FB train. So, feet to fire, I’d guess the company beats estimates, talks up mobile and new rich media ad platforms and their new ad buying platforms and the stock rallies back above $50 after the report. But as I’ve said repeatedly lately, “I’ve trimmed down my $FB and sold my $FB calls for 500-2000% gains — remember all that $FB buying I did back in the $20s and teens — and am sitting tight on my remaining $FB for now.”
Q. How would you trade FB going into ER later and with Fed saying economy too weak to start tapering?
A. I’ve been predicting from the beginning of the “TaperTalk” that there would never be a taper any time soon. There still hasn’t been and I don’t expect there will be anytime for the next year or so, but we’ll take that as it comes. Meanwhile, feet to fire, I’d hold onto my $FB common stock into tonight’s earnings report. If you don’t have any FB common stock yet but, like me expect that it’s still got a lot more upside to come in future months and years, I’d buy 1/3 of a full position today before the report and then tomorrow afternoon or later this week, I’d buy another 1/3 of a position after the stock settles in post-earnings. And then again, we’ll take it as it comes from there.
Q. Hi Cody, FSLR ER tomorrow. Historically FSLR has dipped immediately after the last 4 ERs and then gone on to recover over the following month or so. Is it wise for me to sell my calls (up 120%) prior to ER and then look at purchasing some new calls after ER? Thanks.
A. I always suggest trying to have your cake and eat it too by doing a partial of whatever it is you’re considering to trade. Sell 1/5 or 1/3 of your calls and then ride it out if you remain bullish. I’m in FSLR common so there’s no time exposure risk for me.
Thanks for your advice.
Q. Hi Cody, I am up on some TSLA Dec puts – thanks! Do you think it is time to get out. Also I have a short position on IBM where I have lost all of my gains, whilst their revenue looks like it will continue to shrink, they are still paying good dividends so the price seems to have bounced back. Am I better off shorting a different stock in the medium term?
A. Congrats on the TSLA and sorry to hear about the IBM. I like using the $TSLA puts I bought when it was near its highs as a continued hedge against a pullback in the high-beta stocks we are long. I’d probably look to sell some of the $TSLA puts in a tranche if it drops another $10 or down near $150/share or so, just to lock in some of those profits if and when that happens. Otherwise, I’ll just hold these tight for now. I’m also surprised at IBM’s resilience, but you are right that the dividend is probably a cushion. I might have to consider covering it myself. Will work on that for next week.
Q. Hi Cody: After TQNT ER they dropped a bit and you said that you were placing them in the doghouse until the meeting on Thursday. Then yesterday you said you were taking another tranche. Has anything changed since your original doghouse statement? And what are your thoughts on how the starboard proposal will affect things after tomorrow meeting?
A. I got a bunch of analysis from one of my sources on $TQNT and it made me want to get another tranche in earlier rather than later. If nothing’s shocking in a bad way when we talk to management, I’m planning to buy a third and probably final (for the time being at least) tranche of $TQNT.
Q. Cody: Considering the lack of news on $CIEN and its recent (sympathetic) drop from $27 to $23, do you see this as a new buying opportunity or is it to volatile to start adding more?
A. I’m not in any rush to add to $CIEN. Maybe near $20 I’d buy more.
Q. What’s driving you reticence on CIEN?
A. Nothing specific, I’ve got a low cost basis and own what I want to own on $CIEN for now.
Q. Cody, a whole ‘nother world, whole ‘nother subject: Bitcoins. I’m getting re-intrigued, and I know you have a few in your holdings. If I want to go to a reputable area to price and buy, where would that be? I thought at one point you had written something literally on that (the safest, most reliable way, etc.) but I’ve searched TWC on the subject and nothing on bitcoins that I found gives me that specific direction. Did I miss it? Can you direct me? Thoughts today on bitcoins?
A. I’ve been a bit off the BitCoin $BTC Newsflow horse lately so let me catch up on the latest and greatest sites and news, etc. You’re right that I’ve got a few BitCoins. I plan to hold ’em forever.
Q. Thank you. As soon as you can guide me to a safe(ish) Bitcoin path, I’d like to hear about it. I didn’t see a $BTC (is that the “symbol”?) company code on Scutify. Since it’s not a real entity, is there an info flow in the Scutify app?
A. I don’t know if it’s in the Scutify app or not! I’ll have them put it in now for sure though.
BitCoin is already on Scutify.com! www.scutify.com/forex See the last item on the right of the top menu bar on the Scutify Forex page.
Q. Are you out of $FIO I am not seeing it in your holdings?
A. Yes, have been out of $FIO for a long time now. I lost faith in management before they left and the company is a total lottery ticket crap shoot now. Feet to fire, I’d guess the stock is headed much lower over the next couple years as the market passes them by since they’ve squandered their once-formidable lead in enterprise flash storage/server technologies.
Q. A few months back I asked for your opinion on Glencore for an inflation hedge and you kind of lumped it in with GLD and the miners as an option. I bought and watched it walk up slow and steady without the wild ups and downs of GDX. It seems they are a more diversified commodity play as they are buying up all the farmland they can in addition to mining. Since Its up 25% straight line, I was wondering if I could convince you to do a deeper dive on it. I would love your take.
A. I just don’t think I have an edge and would take on too much risk by betting on an individual miner, so I stick an ETF in this case. Another example of knowing what I know, you know?
Q. With your non-expectation on there being any tapering in the near-term future (“next year or so” actually isn’t near term), I guess I need your assurance (again; you’ve stated it before) that you think rates will be higher by (this) year’s end. I’m JUST about even on January ’14 $106 IEF puts (in fact I WAS even until a few minutes ago and the Fed announcement). Should I pull out and bank the cash for other opportunities at this point?
A. We go over this every week in the chat, don’t we? I think you’re too long IEF puts, since it is this often a topic of our discussion. I’ll update you and everyone when my own personal thoughts on higher rates being the short-term and long-term trend changes, ok? 🙂
OK, I’m backing down. At least I got a smiley face.
Q. Hi, when can we get larger print on the Scuttles site?
A. Not sure what you mean
The print is very small. Reading the tweets.
On the app or on the site?
The App for iPhone.
We should have the new and MUCH improved iOS7 iPhone app for Scutify out next week!
Okay folks, that’s a wrapittidoodiggity til nextimity. Peacity.