Market Sentiment, FSLR update, marijuana apps and bitcoin bad guys
It’s a bubble-blowing bull market but there sure is getting to be a strong sentiment leaning to the bullish side of things again. Extreme sentiment readings can be a good indicator of the near-term next market move — when the bulls are cocky and bears are MIA, it’s often a toppish indicator. So I ask you guys, is anybody out there who subscribes to TradingWithCody bearish and/or short right now? Hmm.
Well, $FSLR is right back where it was just about eight trading days ago. The report is no shock, and neither is the stock reaction. Since I turned from outright short to long on the solar industry about 15 months ago, we’ve done very well as has the industry. $FSLR profits were strong, the pipeline is what it is supposed to be if not stronger, and while we have successfully navigated these swings a couple times over the past year, I’m planning on holding my $FSLR steady for now.
So not much of a new opportunity here for me, and I’m not adding to it, but maybe a 1/4 or a 1/5 tranche, I guess would make sense. If you have no position in $FSLR and are looking to start one, I always suggest starting small with a toe in the water and then scaling into more over time.
I’ve written a couple of articles that caught a lot of traction and both topics need a bit of updating.
A couple weeks ago I wrote an article called, “You’d have to be a dope to buy marijuana stocks” and boy did it ever hit a nerve. So far, that column has generated more than 250 comments, 100s twitter responses and dozens of Scuttles on Scutify, almost all of them angry, spiteful and/or full of ad hominems.
You guys don’t realize it, but I love all these confidently angry shoot-the-messenger kind of comments in here. Except I sure hope that for everyone of you bashing me that somebody out there is choosing not buy into these things and therefore not setting themselves up for huge losses by betting on penny/reverse-merger/roll-up/hype machine Wall Street insider selling marijuana stocks.
The angrier you Penny Marijuana Stock pushers get at me for telling you penny stocks are a scam, the bearish-er I get on ’em.
It reminds me of other times I was sounding the alarm on other badly hyped horrible places to put your money. What about that one Raystream company I wrote about a few years ago that used to trade above a $1 on hype that it was going to create a new way to compress data to send over the Internet — it trades for below a penny these days. Or remember my article called “Facebook isn’t in a bubble — yet“, in which I ripped into $SPEX, which is down 80% since I wrote this about it: “I’ve seen this playbook where you hype a play with press releases and ridiculous ‘analyst’ articles reinforcing the story while the insiders and hypsters of the stock unload. Stay far away from buying any stock like this. And know that when stocks like this are popping so easily off hype like this that we’re much closer to a top than a bottom in the markets.”
I literally saw a press release from a pot penny stock today that was hyping their coming “marijuana app!” Do you think I’m wrong that these penny pot stocks like $PHOT $CBIS $HEMP $MJNA are the same? Comment below or come join the discussion on this stuff over on my Scutify page.
Likewise, after my article from last week called, “Bitcoin isn’t just for momentum junkies,” I want to let you guys know that the Mt Gox exchange problems have not changed my stance on bitcoin one iota. To the contrary, getting rid of a bad player is a very good thing for the good players who remain. There will be other companies, exchanges and bitcoin scams if/as bitcoin continues to grow in acceptance as an exchange of value.
Which leads me give you today’s Trader’s Deep Thought of the Day then — Do you think those who had $BTC bitcoins at MtGox will get a bigger % of their deposits back than:
- Farmers who had millions plundered from their custodial accounts at MFGlobal?
- Savings and checking account holders at the Cyprus Banks last year?
- People who hold one of the 150 promised paper claims per each physical ounce of gold at the Comex when the music stops playing there someday?
Answer: If you are not holding your asset in hand — stock certificate, bitcoin (good article on this topic – To keep your bitcoins safe, just print them out — really), gold, or dollar, your money’s at risk. Just sayin’.
