Here is the transcript to this week’s Live Q&A chat. Join me next Wednesday at 2pm EST at https://tradingwithcody.com/chat or send me an email with your question at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Turn up the radio, let’s rock.
Q. Any thoughts on $SWIR and Cody, what year does today’s current market remind you of?
A. With all the penny stock and momentum lovers around these markets, it’s starting to remind me of 2000. It’ll rhyme though, not repeat, to paraphrase Samuel Clemens. Haven’t looked at $SWIR in a while, so no edge for ya there. Never liked the smallish gross margins at $SWIR.
Q. 2000–that’s scary–what type of pullback are you expecting for NASDAQ?
A. I keep saying that I think we’ve got at least another year or so to get through before this bubble blowing bull market pops. But I sure could and wouldn’t mind seeing a 10-15% pullback in the Nasdaq to get some weakhanded traders back out of our stocks.
Q. Anybody on here outright bearish and/or short right now?
A. Not outright, but bearish. And rates-going-up-ish (which i’m playing in a short fashion). Just wish either would happen.
A. Getting very cautious for the overall market Fear gauge @78 others tools show too few bears as well yet money WANTS to be put to work on pullbacks and thus that is why they are so shallow. Even Putin war threat was short lived.
Q. You have freed up $FF, $TQNT and $DDD cash. Is that for a new TWC revotech stock (I think I just made a new ETF name) ?
A. TWCRevoTechStock ETF, trading on the Nasdaq, under the symbol: CODY. Errr, no. Anyway, I didn’t take the profits and sell $DDD or $FF or $TQNT for any other reason that I explained when I did for each respective stock. That is, I was looking simply at each individual stock and decided it was time to move on from each. I had cash ready to put to work before I sold them and now I have a little more cash to put to work next time I do.
Q. $INVN has been roaring 19.5 to 24 this week- anything to do with drones, gyroscopes etc in that $FB acquisition this week of Titan?
A. I hadn’t thought that was a catalyst for this big move in $INVN and I still don’t think that sounds or feels quite right. More likely the stock’s had buyers like me that have driven it higher til it broke out to a new 52-week high and now the momentum-lovers are chasing it higher.
Q. Fantastic call on $INVN– many thanks for that. Wondering how you are looking at it, as a very long term hold? or you’ll take it as it comes?
A. $INVN‘s just been on fire. I can picture holding it for the next five to ten years if drone technology and other flying smart computers take off. Wearables are gonna be huge, but so are flyables. Ooh, I just coined a new term. “Flyable computing.”
Or…. Computable Flying.
Q. So what tech is for flyables as we have wearables covered with $INVN for now?
A. $JDSU and $INVN and what other stocks are going to lead the “Flyable Computing Revolution?” I’m working on it!
We already have “spyable computing.”
A. Flyable spyable computing is coming. Ugh.
iFLY coming soon! 🙂
iFlySpy coming soon. This is fun. Ha.
Q. Since those drones will be solar-powered, maybe you can research who supplies/will supply that component to $FB‘s new adopted company and others.
A. Excellent thoughts and analysis on the trickle down from drones.
Q. Hi, I feel $FB is making the right moves for the future, is it worth buying more stock or calls at this level?
A. If the momo in this market keeps escalating, the $FB break out to new all-time highs today will likely have some more near-term upside. Not a game I’d want to play though. I just hold the $FB common I’ve had for a long time and if you don’t own any $FB I’d start with a 1/5 tranche here.
Q. Hi Cody. 3D printing stocks are all on the skids lately. This just a little indigestion from the bigger run ups over the last year + ? What is the catalyst that gets them jumping again and how soon do you think that might be? I have some underwater March calls on $DDD and $XONE and am trying to determine whether to throw in the towel or whether a short term turn around is even realistic. Thanks.
A. When the momentum lovers flee from one sector and into another, it can take a long time before the fundamentals catch up to where the momentum lovers have taken the valuations. That is, perhaps a lot of that money coming out of the the 3-D printing sector is likely what’s pumping up the fuel-cell and hydrogen-cell stocks that are on fire right now. I’m out of $DDD and am planning on holding on my $XONE and $SSYS for a few more years.
Q. Hi, Cody. $CIEN: feet to fire guess before earnings? I’m ahead in it, and it seems to make sense to do about a 10%-below stop loss, just in case things aren’t received well. See anything wrong with that logic? I don’t believe you’re a fan of stops, correct — ?
A. Can’t you just see $CIEN opening tomorrow down 8%, dropping down 12% on the day and then rallying back to even or up on the day? That’s the problem with stop-losses…they usually get you out at a bottom rather than on the way towards a bottom. Likewise if the stock opens down 20% tomorrow, your stop loss will kick in regardless that you wanted to get it filled if it’d fallen only 10%. Feet to fire, I think they beat and guide higher tomorrow and that the stock will keep in its upward trend over the rest of this year at least. Good luck however you play it.
Rats, and I thought I was so smart. Forget my follow-up $JDSU question, then.
Q. Any thoughts on $SIMO?
A. Robert Marcin over on Scutify is your man for $SIMO. I’ve owned it in the past and if they can drive some topline growth this year and next, that stock will likely double.
Q. Marcin super into $SIMO…You thinking of joining?
A. No, I’ve got plenty of tech and $SIMO-similar (so to speak) stocks in the portfolio already.
Q. I don’t see any questions on $AAPL so I might as well be the one. Are you looking at it here or waiting for a pullback in the market to deploy cash?
A. I’ve just got enough $AAPL to hold me for now. I’d be a buyer near $500 though.
Q. OK — thoughts on $ZNGA (though you probably answered this elsewhere). Trim some gains or just hold? You like the new guy’s plans re overseas cash games?
A. I like the new CEO simply cuz he can’t mess up the company any more than the old CEO did when he drive it into the ground and we were able to sneak in and buy some when it was trading near its cash balance, much of which was created when the company came public at a wildly overvalued price. Anyway, I’m holding my remaining $ZNGA for a long time to come I expect.
Q. Cody, do you follow or have opinion on $SINA?
A. I like $BIDU better than $SINA, but both seem like relatively safe ways to bet on the future of China technology and consumption.
Q. Any new thoughts or direction on $CREE or $FSLR?
A. I like both $CREE and $FSLR and would look at a 1/3 tranche buy of each to get started. Long-term, both are what I want to own.
Q. Cody, Costco is reporting tomorrow before market. Is there an earnings play or any long term play on $COST?
A. No edge for you on an old school retailer like $COST. I will tell you I think the big box concrete suburban retail sales model is doomed over the next twenty years. $TGT, $WMT, $COST, and the others of their ilk likely face $JCP-like and $SHLD-like futures.
Q. Hello MR. Cody, so am just checking about this these recent trades as you said you made a few days ago…I’m buying some $IWM and $SPY puts with strike prices just slightly out of the money, just below where each is currently trading, dated out into April and May. Just some protection as I think complacency and sentiment are too extreme and it’s time to buy some insurance. I do not see them in the portfolio review also; could you be more specific about the strike prices and dates…Koop Kung cup (thank you as I am in Thailand… !
A. We didn’t get my new $IWM and $SPY puts into the Latest Positions because I was buying them while I was finishing up that post, which takes a long time to put together my ratings and weightings of my portfolio as prices move and I make trades. At any rate, to answer your question, I am worried that there’s just not enough worry out there and that I want to have some more protection if the markets do a short-term pullback. It’s been a long time since there was any real pullback in the markets and trying to guess the perfect time of when the next one will happen isn’t what I’m doing. Just hedging some while warfronts and currency wars rage. I bought some $IWM April and May puts with strikes around $110. And I bought some $SPY puts expiring in April and May with around $180 strikes.
Q. Hello Cody ~ Dittos on Sudesh’s comments about being specific on the puts/calls, etc. I wanted to participate in those hedge trades but was hesitant due to that ambiguity. In lieu, Eryba suggested the VXX which came in handy for a quick trade and profit.
A. I should and will be more specific on those options next time.
Q. Hello, did you sell all your $FF? I see it still in your positions…
A. Just started selling the $FF and am almost completely out of it. Will be by the end of today, I expect.
Q. Interesting conspiracy theory forwarded on Putin, which I know you’d love, Cody: that in order to pay back the magnates who he forced (?) to fund the Olympics, he rattled his Ukraine invasion threat, knowing the market would tank, and then backed off — giving them the insider opportunity to get their money back. Would be great if someone could investigate that …
A. Much more likely, I think is that Putin is playing 3-D chess while the corporate masters of the US/EU are playing checkers. Not that Putin has a clue either, of course. Excellent write up from my old friend Vitaliy Katsenelson about what Putin’s plans were and how he’s already done most of what he set out to do: Will Russia Go to War Over Ukraine? Don’t Bet on It
Thanks for that, comrade.
Dah. Ochen harisho.
Easy for you to say.
Oops, it’s spelled “ochen horosho” according to Google. I once lived for several years in Brooklyn with a girl from Russia who had many Russian friends and whose father only spoke Russian. I used to be able to get by a little bit in the conversations.
All rightie, comrades. имейте хороший день imeyte khoroshiy den’ “have a good day” in Russian.