Trader Deep Thoughts of the Day are all Ukrainian Proverbs: A hungry wolf is stronger than a satisfied dog. He who licks knives will soon cut his tongue. Black souls wear white shirts.
The markets apparently are blowing off the Crimea referendum to join Russia and the escalating war of words between the leaders of the US and Kremlin. It’s been so long since we’ve had a major panicky sell-off of more than 2-3% in a very long time. Remember when the markets were panicked over Greece and Cypress? Prices of stocks were much, much lower back then and the risk/reward more favorable for being aggressive on those pullbacks from back just a couple or so years ago. Over the last couple years since buying those panics aggressively, I’ve continually trimmed my positions and have slowly added more short exposure to reduce my overall exposure to the markets right here at this level right now. I mention a few of my recent trades in today’s must-reads commentary below.
Having a long-term plan and a playbook to get there is key no matter your time horizon. So let’s jump into today’s must-reads for every trader and investor as the new week kicks off.
Bank of America Will Make Dividend Announcement on March 26 – It’s ridiculous that $BAC would be able to raise its dividend back to record high levels while the Fed claims we still “need emergency bank help” and QE, ZIRP, etc. That said, we’ve certainly learned that the Fed only cares about banking and corporate profits and dividends, so I expect to see $BAC‘s dividend probably almost doubled. The market’s expecting more than just a double of the $BAC dividend I do believe, and I might put a$BAC short on before the March 26 announcement.
Old school retailers doomed – “As for retail, seismic shift towards internet obsoletes much retailing real estate requiring significant downsizing, durable goods sales peaking, higher taxes, fewer benefits and lack of disposable income growth all present problems. As does the jump in health care costs from Obamacare. Regarding high-end retail, Chinese demand plunging for high end from bear markets there.” I added $XRT and other puts last week near the highs. I amitting tight on that new and other insurance for now. I’m with Mr. Marcin in “short” so to speak. Hoohah.
3D Printing Stocks Continue to Sink – There’s certainly a lot of hot momentum-oriented money and traders running from the 3-D stocks, and without a new catalyst to spike ’em in general, $XONE might very well be dead money for the near-term. Earnings are next Wednesday, and I’d rather be long than short into the report with that as a catalyst for this particular stock.
Here’s Why Facebook Is Better Than Twitter – I’ve long said that Facebook’s the better stock pick of the two. Traction matters. As another example of Twitter’s biggest problem, is that I have 11k followers on Twitter and get about 50 clicks per tweet when I post a link. I have 8k followers on Scutify.com and get about 150 clicks per Scuttle. Do the math. Facebook’s ad models are still evolving and doing so quickly. In the meantime, Twitter’s got a traction and innovation problem that’s not about to go away.
IPO for ‘Candy Crush’ could hit $7.6 billion – Did somebody a few years ago say we were headed into an “App Bubble?” Oh yeah, I did. And headline today – Future IPOs are always hard to call ahead of time, because valuations, pricings, shares offered, etc, all change as do general market/economic conditions.
Steve Jobs Didn’t Want an Apple (AAPL) TV Set: Report – $AAPL looks ready to head higher as a safe haven stock if the momentum money flees the highflyers and is likely got upside along with a continued broader stock market rally. I’m picturing Apple turning Apple TV into an iOS-iPad-like platform that runs the same apps as your iPad does, but on your TV. That and a bigger iPhone and a bigger iPad are all likely this year. I’ve been long $AAPL common for more than a decade and recently bought some $AAPL calls.