Howdy folks, let’s do this chat! What’s up?
Q. What inning of the Nasdaq bull market are we in??
A. Hmm, great question. I should do a full article updating us on “Where we are in this economic and market cycle” next week. Short answer- we’re in the 5th inning of this, the greatest bubble-blowing bull market of all time and one that will end in tears in the 9th inning (barring going into extra innings of course, which could happen!)
Q. Cody, been buying silver and will start gold soon. On the silver I never buy unless .60-.80 over spot. Is that a good point? When and what to pay. thanks
A. If you’re finding silver that’s available in physical form for less than 5% over what passes for “Spot Prices” today, you’re getting a good buy. Just make sure you have faith in your dealer and that they are of course real silver.
Q. Hi Cody, do you think bears capitulated? I’ve heard a few bears simply gave up. Be contrarian, that might not be a good thing.
A. Your analysis/question that most of the bears are dead and squeezed out is probably pretty accurate. Your analysis that to be contrarian to that you’d want do take the other side is very accurate. Not sure I’d want to bet against all that money from savers, retirees and so on that is still being forced into riskier assets like stocks along with the endless Fed/RepublicanDemocrat bailing out of any downturn in the markets or economy.
Comment: Thanks Cody. Looking forward to seeing you here in SF in August.
Cody: Thanks, Hai Chen. I’m actually going to be involved in three events there on the first day of the Money Show Expo in SF. Additionally, the Scutify CEO, Kheang Ly and Lucy Bottrell, the Editor-in-Chief of Scutify and I will all be manning our Scutify booth that we’ll have set up at the Expo. See you there!
Q. My 60 yo dad, who is on his first iPhone (which he still hardly knows how to work) that is several models old, has heard enough rumors of the iPhone 6 to wait till its release to upgrade even though he has needed one for a while. Is this the most anticipated upgrade cycle for the iPhone yet? What does this mean for the stock and is it possible that some of that pent-up upgrade demand isn’t fully built into the current stock price? The fact that he, in particular, has been waiting on the 6 for a few months now seems like a pretty good personal indicator for me.
A. Given these stats: ” $AAPL did $37BB in sales last quarter with a 2+ year old phone growing in units to 35MM sold and a new iphone 6 coming with people like me and your dad who are waiting to upgrade for the iPhone 6…good potential upside to all the analyst estimates for $AAPL’s next two quarters.
Q. Any thoughts on “well priced” call/put options at the moment? Any of the chip manufacturers (Intel?)? Sensor manufacturers for the up-coming iphone release? I assume that everything is priced into $AAPL…
A. Actually, I still like the idea of $AAPL call options since the premium on them is down now after this earnings report. Other stocks I like near-term but am not buying options on include $AMBA, maybe $GPRO puts, maybe $HLF puts. Not seeing great options trading set-ups right now for me though.
Q. Cody I’m sitting about 1/2 cash. Any suggestions on which of your specific stock picks I should start to scale into? I’ve got at least 1/3 tranche of most of your more recent picks like $INVN, $AMBA, $JDSU, $IXYS, etc., but none of your earlier calls like $SNDK, $AAPL, $GOOG, etc.
A. I always suggest starting with the highest rated stocks in the latest portfolio review I published and/or in some of the names in there that compel to you the most. I do think $SNDK is a good first tranche buy candidate after the big hit it took post earnings last week. I like both $AAPL and $GOOG long-term and think that starting a small position in either or both of them and slowly accumulating more over the next few weeks and months is also a compelling strategy.
Q. Cody any thoughts on $JNPR and $XLNX, both are pulling back from disappointing earnings yesterday.
A. Yday, I saw a lot of love on $JNPR’s Scutify page in tweets and in my inbox from sellside analysts. I had the same thought that all that love might set $JNPR up for a sell-off if the earnings report last night wasn’t a huge blow out. It wasn’t. I’d recently sold my small $JNPR position to clear out the portfolio for new names, so I had no money on the line anyway, but it was a relief to have sold when I saw it down 8% today. #Sentiment can be a great short-term contrarian indicator. No interest in buying it back for me right now.
Q. Hi, Cody: Since you think $AAPL calls might have some play in them: what strike and how far out? Thanks.
A. HIGH RISK on this $AAPL call options trade, but I’d look at $105s or so dated out into early next year.
Comment: Thanks, Cody on that $AAPL call recommendation. I.m curious, though — other than the high riska;ways associated with option, is this one higher for any reason?
Cody: Always tough to just say “This is riskier than that” when you’re talking about a very risky asset in the first place.
Q. Hi Cody, Do you think there are going to be any big corrections coming in the near future? It seems like bad news does not have much effect anymore. Even the multiple news events from last week did not have a lasting effect on the markets–there was a small correction for a day, then back to the bull/bear stalemate.
A. I thought we were about to go into a 5-10% correction starting a couple weeks ago. Didn’t come to pass. Now I frankly need to get away from the markets and the flow and the chats and everything else for a few days and come back with some fresh thoughts and fresh analysis.
Comment: Cody, energize those batteries, ALWAYS a good idea!!!
Q. Hi Cody, Do you have any say on $CRUS? They have been suppliers to $AAPL for sometime.
A. Haven’t done any work on $CRUS in a few months, sorry. If I were fresher and not about to walk out the door for vaca, I’d dig into it for you right now, but again, I don’t think I’m on my A Game for trading and new analysis today. Will be next week for sure though, with batteries charged!
Comment: Cody Thanks. As for the baseball analogy, until my starter gets hit (not just looks like he is losing his heater) I am sticking with the bulls. They might be mis-guided, but the bears can’t hit the curve or the heater. 8th inning….Cody 8th inning is when I will start to actively go to cash. 7th inning is for the shorts.
Cody: Slowly go to cash as we go from 6-8th innings, and be ready to get short and/or be all cash if we get a 9th inning blowout. But don’t overanticipate anything. Baseball games and markets are crazy. http://youtu.be/18caPNisP2U
Cody: Just one more question for this Chat, if that’s okay. I’m fading already. I’ve been pushing nonstop on all cylinders and the new baby takes a lot of momma’s and my time and energy and I’m not complaining…but I feel like I’m a puppy that slid into a wall and need a recharge.
Comment: Cody I have 3 daughters. You are now getting the idea. You need to make sure that you preserve your energy. Can’t bull your way through it for very long….
Q. I’m sitting on a large number (for me) of deep in the money $APPL calls with Oct. expirations. I intend to sit on them until we get the serious iPhone 6 run-up between announcement and release. Other than Black Swam, should I have different thoughts?
A. I might consider trimming 1/3 of that batch of AAPL call options to lock in some of those big profits and then take a tiny bit of that capital and buy the same number of cheaper, higher strike priced call options to reduce the risk of losing all the gains you’ve got. Always thinking in tranche and trim.
Comment: Thanks! Have a great time away. Bon Voyage!