Howdy hoo everyboo. Ask me anything, let’s rock this weekly Live Q&A.
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Q. Now that we are through $BABA and the Fed statements what do you see as the biggest risks for the market at the moment?
A. War headlines escalating and/or war escalating itself is probably the biggest risk once the $BABA and FED statements are pretty much digested. Let’s not assume the $BABA impact on the markets is over yet…remember how $FB’s crashed stock after it came public impacted the broader Nasdaq? $BABA’s potential impact on the market both bullish or bearish is even bigger than $FB’s was.
Q. Lately we’ve been avoiding the broken record discussion on Gold/Miners…You any closer to interest there or have any updated thoughts on Gold…specifically through the end of the year and next?
A. Gold’s got no momo. The dollar’s strength as the least-worst currency in the world is driving the gold price action these days. Not sure when gold will get back in bull market phase — it might be a few months before another non-dollar-driven catalyst comes along.
Q. I’ve been starting adding some stocks based on your portfolio. Is this a good entry point for $LNN? How about $INTC?
A. Slowly starting in $LNN and $INTC is how I would suggest getting started. I like both stocks right here right now. Look at the highest-rated and/or my largest positions to get an idea of how I’m looking at the individual stocks right now. https://tradingwithcody.com/2014/08/19/trade-alert-portfolio-maintenance-and-a-complete-run-down-of-codys-latest-positions/
Q. Hi Cody, read you’re adding to $SNE but with their outlook and div. cut why own it, seems like dead money for now.
A. I think much of the bad fundamentals and certainly the Sony Smartphone failure is already baked into the $SNE stock at a $20BB market cap. Their assets are worth more than $20BB alone. Watch for the ship to righten over the next year or two and if it does, the stock won’t have waited around at below $20.
Q. Cody, I have read where by 2017 the smart television market could be selling 250 million units as we venture to more digital age and interactivity becomes mainstream. So, does any of this factor into your Sony optimistic outlook?
A. I don’t think the TV business is worth very much at $SNE but if they are able to start displacing Samsung in wearables they’ll also capture market share in TV sales. That would be gravy and would actually really drive $SNE much higher if there are hundreds of millions of new TV sets driving growth in that market too. Good point, thanks.
Q. Hi Cody, did you build up $SNE into a full position by taking the opportunity of pullback?
A. Yes, I bought more $SNE this morning. I published an article here on TradingWithCody.com https://tradingwithcody.com/2014/09/17/trade-alert-scaling-into-more-sony/ and sent out an email blast with that article to all our subscribers, so if you aren’t getting the emails, please make sure you let email@example.com know.
Q. When does the iPhone 6 get opened up ? ie $INVN receives a report card and others too ! What thoughts more do you have Mr. Willard ? Gracias
A. Some analyst will finally get his/her hands on the iPhone 6 in the next week or two and then we’ll see a flurry of headlines and news and stocks move off the answer to “Who’s in the iPhone 6?” question.
Q. Hi Cody, It was great meeting you in person last week. On Tuesday you made some comments regarding near term prospects for $INVN when it becomes known if their chips are in the iPhone 6. Any idea when this will be known? When will the phone be available for someone to dissect; how long does that take? Is there a play on short dated out of the money options?
A. You could buy slightly out-of-the-money call and put options on $INVN, going out to October and if the stock gets hit at least 10% or pops at least 10% on the iPhone 6 suppliers list, you’d probably make more money on the winning options than you lose on the losing options. Not sure it’s a sustainable, smart kind of trade though, so I’m not on it.
Q. From what I understand there are teams ready to tear the iPhone 6 down on its release on Friday…
A. Is that when the public will start getting the iPhone 6? I thought it was a few weeks away still. Whatever, we’ll take the iPhone 6 Supplier headlines as they come.
Q. What is your latest thinking on $BBRY – back to $11. Any thoughts about what level you might consider shorting/buying puts?
A. I’m looking at the $BBRY puts/short ideas right now. But for now I think the momentum could take it into the teens, so I’m waiting. It’s not smart to be too aggressive in the shorts in a bubble-blowing bull market.
Q. Cody, whats a good entry point on $FB??
A. As always, I’d start to build a position in $FB slowly and add to it on weakness. I think $FB will be a high-beta version of the broader Nasdaq for the next few weeks until we get another earnings report.
Q. Cody, is $amba a very risky long??
A. All growth stocks are “risky” right now, as valuations are up along with the bubble-blowing bull market. $AMBA’s got potential for huge revenue growth in coming years though, and if they deliver on that growth, the stock will be much higher than current levels.
Q. Cody: $AMZN july and Aug numbers are good and the stock is tanking for now. Please see the below links and numbers. Me thinks it will be a great play into $AMZN earnings next month or so and ofcourse also long term. What do you think about it into the earnings next month? http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/2491185?source=iphoneportfolioapp_message http://etfdailynews.com/2014/09/12/amazon-com-inc-amzn-sales-growth-a-good-sign/
A. Bezos is a terrific stock-handler and if $AMZN is still trending down into next earnings report, I’d rather be long for a trade than short as I do think the fundamentals and the growth are good at Amazon right now.
Q. Do you feel the managements mishandling of the Ciena conference call is a chronic condition…and are the underlying fundamentals still positive..it would be a sizable loss if i bailed out of Ciena Now…little more of what your thinking is !
A. Ugh, I’m sorry you’re down on the $CIEN. I can’t fix what management at Ciena has been doing as the try to manage their business and have failed their shareholders, including me, as they lose our confidence. The industry of selling optical equipment is seeing strong demand right now, but the Chinese and other competitors are apparently winning more than Ciena is. Mea culpa for having stuck around in Ciena too long.
Q. Seems like those $JRJC puts should have skyrocketed…don’t get me wrong, 45% is nice but dropping from $11 to under $7 would have brought much bigger gains…still a nice call, Cody!
A. Some of the puts are up more than 45%, nearly doubling from when I first started buying them when $JRJC was at $11. I was just happy to get the chance to buy some puts for the soft pitch down the center in a crappy hyped tech stock like this. So many others like the $DGLY didn’t have any puts available and I couldn’t borrow enough to make a short trade on it either. More of these to come, I think.
Q. Cody – how have things been going with Scutify’s Tradier partnership? Have users been trading via Scutify?
A. Yes, we’ve gotten some good traction from offering the Tradier trading platform on Scutify. Kheang is currently implementing some design and integration enhancements that will make it ever easier/cooler to trade directly on Scutify using the Tradier platform without ever leaving our site.
Q. Talk of an Apple TV coming out in about a month with another big event. You have any interest in $AAPL calls with all of this momentum and pent up demand for the iPhone 6 and watch and TV and … ?? Seems like some long dated $AAPL calls would be a relatively safe bet, no?
A. I think just riding my $AAPL common as one of my biggest positions is the right move for now. We had a great time with the last time we did some $AAPL calls, but I distinctly remember the pain of losing money on AAPL calls a while back. Easy does it. Let the pitches tell us how to swing.
Q. Cody: the sector of $CIEN is very interesting, this market is in up trend, you know. I have been in $INFN since long time, why not to consider just change $CIEN for $INFN and keep expoouse in this sector?
A. Good idea on the $INFN, I’ll take a look at it. Haven’t worked on that name lately.
Comment: For me, $INFN has the best tech in this sector. The stock is doing very nice in up trend lately and I really think they are executing very well, new clients and they are going to launch its metro solution in the next couple of months.
Q. Are you still building up on $AMBA and $HIMX?
A. I’ve already built up my $AMBA and $HIMX where I want them to be for now. You can read all the latest analysis from me here: https://tradingwithcody.com/?s=amba and https://tradingwithcody.com/?s=himx
Q. Any opinion on $AMAT??
A. I’m disappointed that I didn’t have any exposure to the semicaps like $AMAT during this part of the cycle. I’ve missed so much of the moves there that I’ve been a bit jaded. Emotions are the enemy, so I’ll go in and do some research and fresh analysis on $AMAT and $KLAC etc with a clean slate.
Okay folks, that’s a wrap. Gracias!