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Not so random thoughts on the markets, ebola, IXYS and ugliness

October 1, 2014 by Cody Willard

Don’t forget to join me for this week’s Live Q&A Chat at 2pm EST at https://tradingwithcody.com/chat.

STOCK MARKETS ANALYSIS

Small caps and the Russell 2000 are officially in correction territory, down 10%. Path of least resistance for the market is still mostly sideways, but the TA in me says the recent 1% daily moves in the markets are starting to wear out the bulls. Who’s more scared right now, the bulls or the bears?

For what it’s worth, if I didn’t own any or “enough” stocks or didn’t own a particular stock I’ve been waiting to buy, as I know some of you have been, I’d use today’s panicky action to scale into a tranche, maybe 1/4 or 1/3 of a full position’s worth. Don’t expect a sudden payoff, but starting to scale in now would probably work out in the mid- to longer-term.

EBOLA OUTBREAK A BLACK SWAN?

Is the Ebola outbreak on any of your radars out on in Scutifyland? It’s in the Markets headlines as partly to blame for today’s sell-off, but I don’t hear traders (pro or retail) talking much about it. I wrote months ago: “This is already probably a factor in the current market downtrend and has the potential to become a bigger factor if not contained.”  http://blogs.marketwatch.com/c…

Prayers to all affected by the ebola outbreak, and I hope this thing gets contained asap globally and in the US. I hate to have to think about the market/economic implications of this ebola outbreak, but it should be on our radar as a possible Black Swan.

UPDATE ON IXYS

$IXYS is my smallest position, and I’ve not added to it recently, my cost-basis is just above these $10.30ish levels. I’d like to see a couple quarters of improved financial and fundamental performance from the company & we’ll just have to see how the quarterly earnings reports play out. For now I keep a toe-hold position in it. I’d probably add a small tranche if it got a 9-handle before the next report if all else remains the same.

I asked Robert Marcin, the best value investor I know, to update me on his own IXYS analysis and he’s pretty much on the same page as me:

RobertMarcin – My thoughts re $ixys are that its a very cheap company with decent assets, but poor management. as i have written before, i am very disappointed in Co’s execution past 12 months and had expected much more growth and profit margin improvement. the company is worth $25 per share in an auction today, but the ceo and president run this w/o regard to public shareholders. the stock has been $10 for 20 years and mgt doesnt care. they just keep adding to their ownership via options. very disappointing.

UGLIER THE BETTER?

I’m not personally making any trades today, but I might start scaling into a few of my smaller long positions or add a new options trade here later today or tomorrow, depending on just how ugly the action gets. The uglier, the more likely I’ll do a buy or two.

POST SCRIPT

Click here to listen to Latest Cody Underground podcast on SoundCloud. Or click here to listen to it and subscribe to my podcasts on iTunes.

PPS. Did I mention that you don’t ever have to leave the Scutify platform to buy or sell a stock or option.It’s awesome. Learn more –http://www.scutify.com/trade.html

 

 

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Filed Under: Trading

Disclosure: At the time of publication, the firm in which Willard is a partner and/or Mr. Willard had positions in some of the stocks mentioned above although positions can change at any time and without notice.

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This does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation of any security or cryptocurrency or token any other product or service by Cody Willard or any other third party. Furthermore, nothing in this is intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice and nothing in this should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security or cryptocurrency or token or to engage in any investment strategy or transaction. You are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, investment strategy, security or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. You should consult your business advisor, attorney, or tax and accounting advisor regarding your specific business, legal or tax situation.

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