Be sure to join me today on The IAm Cody Willard App for this week’s Trading With Cody Live Conference Call Q&A. We will be using the incredibly cool interactive live streaming feature to ask and answer questions today. Click here for the iPhone app and click here for the Android app.
I’ll also take questions over the phone on our conference call line. (Dial-in: 641-715-0700 Access Code: 709981), in the Trading With Cody chat room or just email us your question to email@example.com. Lots of ways to communicate, but the most revolutionary method is of course The IAm Interactive Live Stream on the app, so be sure to download The IAm Cody Willard App and swipe over the Broadcasts page, and tune in. It should be a lot of fun, so be sure to join me on the Live Stream on the app if you can. Now onto today’s note…
Want to know the biggest potential catalyst for a major market decline? Number one is probably currency and the currency wars and specifically right now, looking at the US dollar this year, the US dollar index is having its worst year in decades. And we’re only in September.
Recall at the beginning of the year, the dollar was very strong and everybody was bullish on the US dollar. Now it has tanked (not quite collapsed, not crashed), but it is in a very vicious downward cycle. Downward trend I should say.
I think we need to be looking at the US dollar. And one of the things I always go back to when analyzing currencies and Treasuries and bonds (as taught to me by Brian Reynolds, a terrific economist and fixed income analyst): It’s not always the direction of the move that matters, but it’s often the speed with which that move occurs.
What happens is that an outsized quick move in the dollar could leave investment banks or sovereign governments exposed to unforeseen giant losses…that then get the systemic fears on the rise and then you have a potential for a vicious cycle to kick in.
And again, the declining US dollar has been record-setting quick this year which has got it on my radars and I will be making several calls today to Brian Reynolds and other economist traders and hedge fund managers whom I respect. And the topic for all of those discussions will be the US dollar. Not something to freak out about (yet?), but something worth thinking about, exploring and analyzing, that’s for sure.
I’ll have more on this tanking US dollar trend in coming days and weeks.