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Stock market and economic themes for 2018

January 2, 2018 by Cody Willard

I sat down this weekend to write out some themes that will likely matter in 2018 and I noticed a recurring theme within those themes. I bet you do too:

  • A continuation of Republican Democrat Regime policies that fuel corporate earnings and stock market prices with the latest even more complicated tax code with yet more loopholes and carveouts. The 2008/2009 bailouts under Bush and Obama, Obamacare, the latest tax bill — these were all written by and created to profit giant corporations.
  • Continued strength in the corporate economy, partly if not largely fueled by those aforementioned corporate-focused policies from our government.
  • A continuation of the trend of slow moving, barely higher interest rates with a focus from the Fed on keeping the bull market and easy access to money at below-market rates for giant corporations and banks.
  • Most likely a continued bull market, fueled by these underlying economic/political trends. At least for now, of course, but someday all imbalances come back to create losses as the piper gets paid.
  • Definitely a continued focus on stock picking. I have a couple smaller cap and a couple new larger cap stocks I’m planning on buying into the new year, and I’ll keep on top of all of our stocks.

Some new trends in the stock market to look out for:

  • Marijuana-related stocks coming public. Hopefully some good Revolution Investing opportunities included.
  • Blockchain/bitcoin stocks coming public. Hopefully some good Revolution Investing opportunities included.
  • Yet more more growth in money flowing into start ups from venture capitalists and angel investors.

What will be the most likely catalyst to disrupt all these continued trends that we predicted seven or eight years ago and have been profiting from ever since? Here are some potential downside, even “Black Swan”-type, catalysts to watch for in 2018:

  • A crash or two in the currently spiking emerging markets. Most emerging markets have been on a big tear for the last year or two and it’s likely at least some of those emerging markets crash this year, no matter what happens in the US and China stock markets/economies.
  • Spike (or a crash, though I think a crash in the US dollar very unlikely) in the US dollar. If the Euro suddenly reverses and drops hard from the highest level its been at in three years, as it is currently, the endless currency wars from our planet’s developed nations could escalate in a hurry. (Would that be good for bitcoin? Probably.)
  • A spike or a crash in US-based interest rates. It’s not necessarily the direction that the interest rates move that matters, it’s the speed with which the move happens. There are banks playing games with interest rate derivatives that could exposure them to billions in losses if interest rates get funky.
  • War. China/Japan, US/North Korea, Middle East tensions — these could lead to war, war leads to fog, fog makes for bad policy and economics, and all of that can lead to lower stock markets.
  • A consumer recession. The US consumer has been hanging tough and keeps spending, India/China consumer class grows, and that’s been a boon for the global economy and multinational corporations. Is the US consumer exhausted?
  • Who knows what? We know we don’t know what might cause the next stock market collapse. So always be prepared.

Let’s be vigilant, free-thinking and as objective as possible when it comes to our analysis and our money. It’s always steady as she goes until it’s not. Let’s not ride anything off a cliff but let’s not jump from the train while it’s still rolling. Too much with the metaphors, but you get my point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Related posts:

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Trade Alert: Selling remainder JRJC puts, Markets commentary and my first two months trading
Trade Alert - Adding some broker puts as tension builds
Everything You Need to Know About Investing in Gold and Silver
Tolerance for corporate lawbreakers?, Dumb gold miners, Tesla, TheStreet and more
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Filed Under: Free Trading and Investing Articles by Cody

Disclosure: At the time of publication, the firm in which Willard is a partner and/or Mr. Willard had positions in some of the stocks mentioned above although positions can change at any time and without notice.

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This does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation of any security or cryptocurrency or token any other product or service by Cody Willard or any other third party. Furthermore, nothing in this is intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice and nothing in this should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security or cryptocurrency or token or to engage in any investment strategy or transaction. You are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, investment strategy, security or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. You should consult your business advisor, attorney, or tax and accounting advisor regarding your specific business, legal or tax situation.

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