My littlest daughter, Amaris, is a princess warrior who probably smiles more than any two year-old on the planet despite her trach tube, gastro tube and a Trisomy 13 diagnosis. My oldest daughter, Lyncoln, is perhaps the kindest older sister who makes sure she includes Amaris whenever she can and always reminds her parents to get Amaris a toy if Lyncoln gets a toy. Amaris got back home from the hospital in Albuquerque on Friday and it’s good to have the family back together!
Oh, and the markets? Still teflon, I guess, huh? You guys know I’m surprised by the swiftness that the markets’ recent 10% correction has reversed upon itself and taken the markets right back up near their all-time highs less than a month after said correction started. Meanwhile, interest rates, both Treasury rates and mortgage rates have been making sustained moves higher. Recall that the correction was supposedly kicked off by the big recent spike in rates. Stocks and bonds telling different stories right now? Not necessarily. Remember that a slow move higher in rates isn’t likely to be the catalyst to take stocks lower — though I am starting to hear some horror stories in the real estate world as refinances and purchases are slowing as mortgage rates have risen.
My feet to fire expectations for the stock market, for the near-term, is that we’re probably near the top of a range that the markets might bounce around at for a few weeks, if not months. After all, stocks don’t have to go up month to month and quarter to quarter just because the corporate economy is strong. Over time, yes, stocks always reflect earnings, meaning that when Apple earns a dollar per share, as it did twelve years ago, the stock might trade at a 5 P/E or a 100 P/E, so the stock might trade any where from $5 to $100 in that scenario. But if Apple earns $20 per share, the stock might trade at 5 P/E or a 100 P/E so the stock might be at $100 or $2000 in that scenario — but it wouldn’t trade at $5 or at $20, because the company is earning that much every year. So the stock price does reflect earnings, though that reflection can swing wildly over time as the P/E multiple moves.
Anyways, I’m obviously not trying to game the near-term swings in the market and I obviously continue to hold onto and buy new Revolution Investing-type names that are creating their own trillion dollar economies.
I might nibble a few more puts this week, just to help hedge the portfolio a little bit more. But overall — and this will surprise no one — I remain steady as she goes for now.
And finally, here’s your last reminder to sign up for Trading With Cody Lifetime Subscription to save big money and talk to me about your portfolio, retirement, business and life. As part of the new Lifetime Subscription to Trading With Cody, I spend 30 minutes on the phone with each person who signs up as a lifetimer. Most of the lifetime subscribers choose to send me a brief write-up about their financial situation which I read right before I call them so there’s some background for our talk.
This will be just about the last time I’m going to mention the new “Trading With Cody For Life” subscription level for the first 100 existing subscribers who sign up at TradingWithCody.com/twc4life. There’s just a few slots left so if you want to take advantage of this lifetime subscription offer, I’d suggest doing it asap. Here’s some of the feedback I’ve gotten from the new lifetime subscribers whom I’ve spoken with so far:
Lifetime Subscriber: Cody, I wanted to thank you for speaking with me a Thursday. I appreciate your service/financial analysis and am glad to now be a lifetime member. I love your analysis and commentary. I appreciate your deep dive into my financial situation and giving me some straight up advice on some of my riskier stocks. I also like the advice of how I need to put more into my business to make it work. It resonated with me and now I need to take action. Thank you again and I am rooting for you with all your business ventures. I have to imagine with the money you have made just from investments you are set for life. I respect that you are still pushing to do more with your other business’s. Enjoy your time home with your beautiful family and I look forward to doing the random acts of kindness (giving little surprises to make some people’s day). I do that every now and then, but you reminded me that I should do it much more. Rock on!
Cody: I enjoyed the talk too and you just reminded me I need to do more random acts of kindness too. Virtuous cycle!
Lifetime Subscriber: Cody, thanks again for the call today. Hearing your high level thoughts on my retirement options as I head into retirement were very insightful and gave me practical ideas to talk over with my wife and my advisor.
Cody: Sometimes my job is to ask the right questions, I suppose. Thank you.
Lifetime Subscriber: Cody, I can’t thank you enough for the discussion about whether I should take a lump sum one time payout or stick with my pension/medical. The insights from our phone call was more than worth the one time lifetime payment!
Cody: No easy answers, but sometimes there are obvious “safer” answers.
Cody back in real-time again. This is just about your last chance to sign up for “Trading With Cody For Life” to get a lifetime of access to all of Trading With Cody plus a decade of annual 30 minute 1-on-1 conversations with me to talk about your portfolio or any other topics you choose.
At just $5995, you could save thousands of dollars on your Trading With Cody subscription over the decade. You also get to talk to Cody personally every year for the next ten years for 30 minutes at a pop.
It bets even better — if you’re an annual subscriber, we’ll refund your most recent annual payment when you sign up for “Trading With Cody For Life.” If you’re a monthly subscriber, we’ll refund up to your last six months’ worth of payments.
Again, this offer is limited so if you want Trading With Cody for life, sign up today before we turn the offer off:
https://tradingwithcody.com/twc4life