Let’s do this. Ask me anything.
Q. What are your thoughts on the overall market…with China stimulus, Brexit, US shutdown, and China tarriff stuff….? Earnings start next week.
A. The stock markets are overextended too. But I’m not sure there’s another 10-20% pullback waiting. Feet to fire, I’d expect that the stock markets rally another 2-3% near-term and then pullback 5-10% and maybe even drop below the December 24 lows at some point this spring, if only because DJ Mr. Markey Mark wants to keep the bulls and bears on their toes dancing.
Q. Good morning Cody, currently you had some nice picks for your Fund like short M,PIR or APRN.Can you give more details about those trades?
A. I certainly will be giving more details. Guys, I’ve just had all the emotions I can handle lately. Writing the kind of analysis I typically do, takes a lot of focus and needs some creative juices to flow. But with Amaris in critical condition, I can’t find the required oomph, focus and emotional energy to write up all the analysis. I’ll write much more this week if Amaris will continue to improve. And when we get her back home, I’ll obviously really get back to the usual Trading With Cody content flow.
Q. Cody, nice call on Blue Apron. What made you pull the trigger on that one?
A. Well, when the stock was at 80-90 cents, the stock was down 90% plus from its IPO and the company had just signed a new deal with Weight Watchers. So I dug into the financials and fundamentals and it looked to me like the company could turn “cash flow” positive at least and since it was trading at a discount to 1x sales, etc.
Q. Hi Cody — I’m also interested in any background (even a couple of sentences) on your short picks. I’d like to go short on a couple of stocks to even out my portfolio but would like to understand your thinking before jumping in on a short (and I prefer puts).
A. Yes, I apologize again, but I will get back putting more analysis in the Trade Alerts. Maybe today or tomorrow.
Q. The gold miners are consolidating with Newmont Mining (NEM) buying Goldcorp (GG). What are your thoughts on GG and gold prices short term and long term?
A. I’m not a big fan of investing in miners. As for gold itself, I expect it’s a little overextended near-term and might pull back 2-3% or so before the summer. But I’m bullish about gold for the year and for the long-term especially.
Q. Cody – why do you like gold long term ? is it because fiat currencies will blow up over period of time?
A. Yes. Read this for full details. https://tradingwithcody.com/ebooks/everything-you-need-to-know-about-investing-in-gold-and-silver/
Q. Platinum near multi-year lows around $800. Any interest in the physical bullion along with gold and silver?
A. Yes, I imagine that platinum is a good buy here around $800 and have been looking around at some of the best ways to play it actually. That said, I always prefer gold to other precious metals because people will accept gold for food (to make an extreme example) during a solar flare crisis whereas I don’t know if they would take platinum.
Q. Cody – what’s your end of year target for gold and 10 yr target for gold?
A. I hate giving price targets, but okay — my year-end target for gold would be around $1450 and my 10 year-target would be around $3500.
Q. Regarding platinum — since you look kindly upon it, is there an ETF equivalent to, say, SLV is for the real stuff. . . and would you recommend that as a possible alternative to actual platinum?
A. PPLT is probably the “best” one. Not that I’ve done enough to work on it to condone it yet though. Here are others: https://etfdb.com/etfs/commodity/platinum/
Q. We understand the reason for not giving the details behind your hedge fund trades. We will pray for Amaris to be back home healthy soon. Is there any reason why you are not providing exact strike prices and date for your options ? Is there any legal restrictions ?
A. It’s more of a matter of trying to find enough time to send these alerts out to you while managing the hedge fund while my family is in crisis mode.
Q. I signed up about 6 months ago to watch Cody’s trades. Most of you ( at some point), did too. Recently you have had a window into watching him navigate life as a man and a father with deepest integrity. I have no doubt that the value in your “subscription” is more. This is a special privilege that will inform you more about what is truly important than specific stock picks. But it will affect them. When I watch the video of Cody playing with Amaris, I know that I am getting much more than that.
A. Thanks so much for the kind words. I don’t know what else to write about that.
Q. NFLX: Raising U.S. Sub Fees by 13%-18% – It has been widely reported that Netflix is increasing its monthly fees to its U.S. subscribers by 13-18%. Its single-stream, non-HD Basic Plan will increase from $7.99 to $8.99 (12%), its two-stream HD Standard Plan will increase from $10.99 to $12.99 (18%), and its four-stream Ultra HD Premium Plan will increase from $13.99 to $15.99. The new prices will go into effect immediately for new subs and to existing customers over the next 3 mo. NFLX: Your thoughts on price increases? Thanks
A. Amazing that this is a company that can get hundreds of millions of people to pay a monthly recurring bill for their services. And they can get these same people to pay more too (probably). The stock itself is going nuts both up and down when it goes nuts up and down which is so often its nuts, so I’m just not about to chase it here.
Q. NFLX: I agree with your answer. It does seem that NFLX’s competition is still pretty far behind vs the amount of content NFLX is offering. I personally wonder if NFLX has reached a very large enough economies of scale….that no competitor can catch them. ?
A. Yes, that’s correct — not just size, but also positioning (think about how every smart TV sold in the last five years has a huge NETFLIX button on it).
Q. Hi Cody, glad to hear Amaris is stable. Prayers for her speedy recovery and your family. Any thoughts on PG&E stock, looks like they are going to file BK and the stock has been hit hard. I remember they had similar troubles in 2001 or so and the stock recovered. Know this is no revolutionary company, it is a monopoly though. Thank you. Ray
A. I’d stay away from PGE. Not so sure the equity has any chance of surviving but I wouldn’t want to bet that it will go to $0 any time soon too.
Q. Off-subject here, but in a good way: thank you and your wife for that wonderful Facebook page on Amaris. I get so inspired every time I check in. What an absolutely wonderful child and wonderful, supportive family!
A. That’s all my wife’s doing on Facebook. But yes, Amaris is a WONDERFUL child and we’ve got the best supportive family around her we can.
Q. AXGN appears interesting at this level under 17. It seems to have stabilized after better than 70% drop from highs. For someone without a position, do you consider this a pretty compelling opportunity?
A. I can think of worse ideas than buying AXGN below $17, but it might take some patience.
Q. Prayers for beautiful Amaris and your family. Two companies to ask about, CGC and SSYS. Different, I know, but are they similar in being poised for growth? Blessings to you.
A. It seems like everybody I know who wants to talk stock picks with me these days end up telling me about the great cannabis opportunities they are invested in. CGC, TLRY and the other bigger cap cannabis stocks are often cited as their favorites. I’m thinking there’s probably more downside in most cannabis stocks before the bottom gets put in. SSYS is a 3D printing company that’s been trading around $20 a share for four or five years now. It’s barely got any topline growth and it’s trading at 35x next year’s earnings estimates. Not a good looking buy or sell in my book.
Q. What are your thoughts on AMZN with earnings coming up and the divorce noise between Bezos and his wife…?
A. I have to admit that when I finally got around to reading some of the sexting and personal stuff that Bezos was sending to his lover….well, it made me sad and disappointed. But I’m not sure it’s relevant to Amazon the stock. People will be people and kingdoms have been lost over stranger things than love/sex.
Q. Hi Cody, Do you still think Bitcoin/Stellar to go down or we may have reached the bottom for those two? Thanks and wish you very best!
A. I’m not so sure we’ve hit bottom, but I do think that Bitcoin and Stellar are better buys than sells at this point.
Q. One more question, on two crazy-lately companies: with the craziness of Sears Holding hovering over bankruptcy and a “save'” (?) — see a yoes-I=knw-risky play in there for us? And how about Macy’s (M) — didn’t get in when you recommended it for fund. Make sense now?
A. I’ve got on interest trying to game whatever Eddie Lambert is doing to try to get value for his hedge fund investors out of the equity and debt of Sears that he owns in various ways. I still own some M’s puts dated out a few more quarters and am holding them steady for now.
That’s a wrap. Thank you all.