Here’s the transcript from this week’s Live Q&A Chat.
Q. Cody, do you think market has already priced in some of the slowdown in China?
A. Great question. It all depends on whether China’s downturn here stabilizes and their economy bounces. If China’s downturn is just getting started, there’s probably much more downside here too.
Q. Cody – You think the next leg of 5% pullback in markets you were anticipating starts from current levels in SPX NDX?
A. Not so sure. Remember I’m looking for a big pop on a China Deal and then a bigger pop at some point if the Fed cuts. And then that would be a good time to look for a high probability pullback.
Q. Hi Cody, Should we buy put protection for TWC portfolio?
A. I do think a little bit of put protection is a good idea but I’m not sure I’d rush into any just yet. The set up isn’t quite as bearish as it was back in October when I bought puts last time right before the market crashed 20%.
Q. Cody Thank you for the in the moment beautiful heartfelt loving positive message. Wishing your family and you the best of health. Live long and prosper..peace love and understanding.. I’m having a hard time shorting some of the shorts. Would you recommend buying puts as an alternative?
A. Thanks. I’m also having a hard time shorting because the whole market has been ripping higher. So I’ve been cutting back on my shorts and keeping the losses from them to a minimum. That said, yes, puts can work too, but just be careful and keep it VERY small.
Q. Cody, I have read several articles over the past three days about: the cloud “Boom” coming to an end. Your thoughts on Dell, in part, we based on DELL getting in to the cloud? What is your opinion on the cloud boom coming to an end, just slowing down not coming to an end, etc, etc.
A. I’d guess it’s about the 3rd inning of The Cloud Revolution. Intel and Nvidia indicate that there might be a major slow down in Cloud growth in China, but over the next 5-15 years, Cloud Boom is still on.
Q. What do you think of $NVDA earnings ? CEO’s explanation about overestimating 2 quarters in a row seems to remind me of $FIT earnings.
A. China collapsed. Nvidia’s still positioned to lead several different Revolutions. I might nibble a little more at $125 or so.
Q. Cody – Once cryptos bounce, won’t NVDA bounce along with them?
A. I don’t think cryptos matter enough to NVDA for them to trade in tandem. OSTK will trade with cryptos. NVDA will trade with its fundamentals.
Q. Have your thoughts changed on VZ after earnings? Mixed results and stock down 4.5% pre market.
A. Gosh, no. We own Verizon because it’s set to dominate 5G and and will figure out lots of ways to get new revenue streams from all the services/apps that will run on 5G and will thusly grow faster than Wall Street realizes. 5G isn’t even here yet. It’s at least another year before Verizon’s numbers will start to show 5G growth though. I’ll be buying more Verizon today.
Q. Is this a good day to go into VZ for starter position or would it be better to wait for 50?
A. I think getting started today isn’t the worst idea I’ve heard all day!
Q. Cody, I am still holding some NXPI. When you have the chance, could you run it through your propitiatory algorithm and let me know the score?
A. Yes, will do it today and post the answer in the chat transcript we send out.
Q. Do you think QCOM stock has priced in slowdown in China already? Goldman put out a list of 7 companies that have high concentrated revenue from China NVDA and QCOM topped the list.
A. Qualcomm’s paying a 5% dividend here and has lots of exposure to the 5G Revolution. But it’s also got big China exposure and court cases. I’m leaving room for another tranche or two depending upon how things play out with it from here.
Q. On QCOM, how will the coming court decision affect the business model of QCOM?
A. We’ll just have to see. So many variables.
Q. Talking coinage/tokens/crypto, would it be correct to say that your “pecking order” for possible survivors is as follows? 1-Bitcoin, 2-Stellar, 3-Ripple, 4-Ethereum?
A. Hmm. I’d probably go Stellar, Ripple, Bitcoin, Ethereum. But the first three are very close and Ethereum is a far back fourth place.
Q. Hi Cody. Feet to the fire, thoughts on Apple earnings tonight? Glad to hear Amaris is getting better and will be coming home soon.
A. Thanks. Feet to fire, Apple reports inline with what it just guided to and then guides a bit lower and then tomorrow the stock trades within 2% of where it closes tonight.
Q. God bless beautiful Amaris! And her wonderful dad… How about buying more SEDG?
A. I can think of worse ideas than buying more SEDG.
Q. Cody: Fantastic news about Amaris! A repeat of my Q yesterday…now officially for the Q&A. I know Steve asked you essentially the same question in the Chat Monday. Here you go: Q: Re TWC and the hedge fund, this is where I’m still confused, and I don’t think I’m alone. You are doing a fine job of reviewing what and why you’re buying for the fund. Yet there have been NO comments/alerts on the TWC “portfolio” or individual elements in it (except when asked). Your next Latest Positions on TWC should help that — but for those of us who are not wanting to add to the total size of our investments (and, in fact, are re-trenching into cash a bit per your advice), how do we handle these (almost all) new (and they sound smart!) recommendations for the hedge fund? And are you holding NONE of the TWC portfolio stocks for the fund? Why? How do we balance the two batches of recommendations? What is the difference in buying/keeping philosophies between the two? 10,000 days for each, right? What TWC do we sell to buy within the fund recommendations? Sorry to bring this up again, but there’s still confusion on my and others’ part. (And I know family time must come first.) Thank you.
A. I thought you guys understood I’m doing the best I can. I’ve repeatedly answered this question for the last three weeks this same way: As soon as Amaris gets home and I can get some semblance of normalcy back in my life and can focus on writing — then I’ll get you these answers. Come on guys, please. I’m not sure when you expect me to get everything done you’re looking for when there’s a major family crisis going on while I’m also just launched a new hedge fund. Please understand I’m doing the best I can.
Q. Will there be any update to Cody Willard Android app as it crashes within 5 sec each time?
A. I should probably remove the apps from the stores. I just don’t have the bandwidth/support to get them fixed up again.