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Trade Alert: Betting on brilliance (and EV)

March 29, 2019 by Cody Willard Leave a Comment

I’m reaching a limit on how many stocks I want to have in the hedge fund and in my personal portfolio, but I have one more name I am adding to the portfolio — and it’s another one that might shock you. After all, the CEO personally blocked me on Twitter years ago.

How many times have you heard me say that we should always bet on brilliance? When I bought Apple at a $1 per share back in 2003, it was a bet on their valuation and on the vision of Steve Jobs. Those who invested in Amazon in 2001 might have liked the idea of an online bookstore, but the brilliance of Jeff Bezos is, that like Steve Jobs or Mark Zuckerberg, that he was envisioning so much more — AWS Coud, Amazon Shipping, AI, Voice Revolution, etc.

Which leads me to Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla.

Here’s a fun tidbit. Back in early 2009 when I was anchoring my show on Fox Business, I actually got to drive one of the first Tesla cars ever produced. In fact, we shut down Central Park and I got to drive the 2008 Tesla Roadster full speed and took it from 0-65 in like 2.8 seconds or something. It was sweet. But I’ve been very skeptical of all the tax credits and corporate welfare and government assistance that Tesla and their customers have built their business upon, so I’ve been mostly bearish on Tesla.

Regardless, as I step back and try to find the most Revolutionary companies led by the most brilliant people in the world, I have decided to build a position in Tesla TSLA. Here’s my bullish notes:

  1. The adoption curve of electric vehicles (EV) is about to happen faster than most people realize. 10 years from now, EV market share will likely be double what most analysts are expecting.
  2. Tesla’s lead (moat) in EV technology, and perhaps more importantly, in production of battery/EV technologies, is substantial.
  3. Tesla plans to ultimately build between 10 and 12 Gigafactories, according to Musk, (they have almost 2 so far), and that capacity is another moat-ish factor.
  4. Tesla’s investments in autonomous vehicles (AV) will also help in creating a network of Lyft/Uber-like ride sharing Tesla cars.
  5. Tesla trucks, semi’s, buses, etc are coming in future years too.
  6. My concerns about financing and funding all this growth have abated as the company seemingly has access to as much capital as they’d need and is generating cash payments to help this.
  7. There are shorts everywhere in this stock and they are active, vocal and aggressive. Go look at the TSLA articles on Seeking Alpha and you’ll see most of them are about how Tesla might be going bankrupt or how much risk there is because Elon Musk is a loose cannon.
  8. The stock is down big this year, giving us a good opportunity to start building a long-term investment in it.
  9. Yes, Elon Musk is a loose cannon and he’s actively blocked me from being able to follow or see his tweets on Twitter. But who cares? The guy’s proved his brilliance over and over: Paypal, Tesla, SpaceX, The Boring Company. I mean, let’s bet on his brilliance.

So, I’ve started building a position in Tesla, about 1/2 as much as I want to own so far, but I’ll probably nibble some more on this one often for a few days or weeks here to build it up to a full position soon.

 

 

 

 

Related posts:

Trade Alert: PANW, DY Plus chatting about Balance, Price targets for arbitrary timeframes and more
Trade Alert - There's gold in them hills, but there's a catch
Economist Preachers, Bonds Be Bad, US Vs Canada Fiat, Ranch Golf, Bitcoin, Stocks, Etc
Trade Alert: SEDG's up 500%, Reloading puts, A little trimming
Trade Alert - Buying silver bars on sale (and watch my bitcoin interview)
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Filed Under: Trade Alert

Disclosure: At the time of publication, the firm in which Willard is a partner and/or Mr. Willard had positions in some of the stocks mentioned above although positions can change at any time and without notice.

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This does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation of any security or cryptocurrency or token any other product or service by Cody Willard or any other third party. Furthermore, nothing in this is intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice and nothing in this should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security or cryptocurrency or token or to engage in any investment strategy or transaction. You are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, investment strategy, security or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. You should consult your business advisor, attorney, or tax and accounting advisor regarding your specific business, legal or tax situation.

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