Here’s the transcript from this week’s Live Q&A Chat including discussion on the Market melt-up, where to trim and AI.
Q. Feet to fire prediction for next 3 months.
A. F2F guess for next 3mos is: Market falls 3.2% this week and next, consolidates quickly and rallies back towards the recent all-time highs we set earlier this week. Then, the market stops 0.9% short of those highs, falls 2.1%, bounces around those levels within a 0.2% band for three days and then…wait what? I don’t know, dude. LOL. I’m a bit worried because the market feels toppy and highflying tech names are getting hit hard this week and look toppy too but the fundamentals remain pretty good but valuations aren’t great. Did I mention I like TSLA here below $240? LOL.
Q. Melt up? Or sell off? So far looking like the latter. How far does it go?
A. See prior answer, but consider that it could do exactly opposite what I wrote. Haha.
Q. Cody – Now that May has arrived….do you think markets pull back a bit? Thanks.
A. Please see my prior answers for my exact prediction and the flipside of my exact prediction for the markets for the near-term. And then consider that we might all be living in a simulation and the people playing this game in which we are the characters could simply sit on their heads and everything would be opposite. Buy sell, buy sell!
Q. I think we should short transportation/logistics sector. Amazon is trying to do Uber-like revolution there. Cody- your thoughts? How do we play this?
A. I 100% agree with your thesis and would add Uber itself along with Tesla as trying to completely disrupt the transportation/logistics sector. I don’t know that sector well enough but I have been researching some companies in it to do exactly that. Gene Munster turned me onto the idea when I asked him what sectors were about to get killed by technology. Anybody reading this that would like to throw out some names from the trans/log sector to short?
Q. Thanks to you, my portfolio (knock on wood that this would not jinx me) is near it’s high again. I didn’t lose the farm on TSLA but I didn’t win much on QCOM either, staying cool and being cautious all the time only lose me minimum amount of sleep. I still believe TSLA would not go bankrupt and it would eventually either learn the auto manufacturing art organically or from joint venture, and shoot for the moon. I also believe there is a floor in TSLA before AAPL or another corp buys it. I am in these for the long term. 5G will come, EV will rule. Autonomous will be the future. It is a matter of “when” not “if”; just like AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, rise with the internet revolution.
A. You wrote this question before the company just filed to raise another $2 billion in cash, but the answer is that I agree with you, I didn’t think TSLA would go bankrupt and now I really don’t. And you know I think the best way to big outperformance in the markets is in Revolutions like we’ve been doing for 20 years!
Q. Cody – whats your take on analyst predicting 4k target on TSLA https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/29/apple-earnings-preview-and-the-fund-manager-with-4000-tesla-target.html? I recall about 10 years or so another superstar Cody Willard put a 1 trillion market cap target on AAPL which came to fruition.
A. I sorta’ hate seeing someone that bullish about Tesla, if only because I like to be a complete loner in my long-term upside predictions. I do think Tesla could someday, maybe in 10 or 30 years, be a multi-trillion dollar company, so there!
Q. As a (sort of retired) computer scientist, I have to tell you that the AI types are famous for hype within the research community. I suspect that fully autonomous cars will not happen until we have a new computer architecture-something that replaces the cpu-memory architecture that has been around since von Neumann. I can see partial autonomy with help from smart roads (i.e. sensors in highways to help direct traffic). Also remember that unlimited 5G means that big brother could hypothetically see everything you do.
A. I think you’re underestimating where we are in the exponential curve of AI and specifically in neural network architecture.
Q. Send your RoboTaxi to pick me up and drive me around.
A. The neural networks and technologies that drive the Tesla Model 3 aren’t fully RoboTaxi ready yet and neither are the local cities. But this time next year, there will be a city or ten in the US that you can let your RoboTaxi pick up a friend.
Q. Would love to hear what Cody thinks about $BA right now, especially with analysts calling for 50% rise potential for the stock. Is now the time to double-down, or should we wait?
A. I’m waiting, sitting tight on a starter BA position.
Q. Also – $LYFT down a lot, $PINS and $ZM doing well – any merit to buying any of these recent IPOs?
A. I’m not a buyer of any of them. Looked at all of them after they came public and/or into their IPOs, but they’re not screaming buys in my opinion.
Q. Our position in TST is 70% reduced, what is your take on the payout and shall we ‘buy back in’? Thanks.
A. Not sure what to do, might reach out to Cramer since I don’t know the CEO there any more.
Q. Did sell some AAPL and PANW and still thinking about some long dated TSLA calls.
A. Yes, I trimmed a little AAPL in the hedge fund, not in the personal account. Haven’t sold any PANW. TSLA calls are expensive.
Q. Hi Cody, Are you still buying SNAP?
A. I’m a trimmer of SNAP, this week, both in the personal account and in the hedge fund. Consider this the Trade Alert.
Q. TWLO entry point please?
A. Probably much lower than current levels, at least for me for now. It’s on my radar.
Q. SQ, time to nibble? Thank you!
A. Nah, holding steady for now for me at least. The growth is very strong, but the valuation still gives me hesitancy.
Q. What is your take on DRAM/HDD/SSD cycle? Time to revisit MU/WDC?
A. My concern about that very cycle keeps me from buying MU or WDC.
Q. Since majority of our holdings reported already, can you please provide positions update with “ investment score” and rough position size (1/3, 2/3,3/3), also playbook in general? Thank you!
A. Can I also build full-size smart versions of the pyramids by next week too? Man, I’m on fire here today with this comedy, aren’t I? Hello, is this thing working? Sigh. yes, I’ll get on it.
Q. Cody: How about CCI for a 5G play?
A. I’ve just never been a believer of the REIT architecture. Been wrong for not owning it for years though.
Q. Cody thoughts on GOOGL?
A. The quarterly report was fine, but not exactly good. It’s a core holding. Would likely buy more if it drops another 5-10% from here.
Q. Hey Cody, Hope all is well with the family. I have a lot of INTC I have not trimmed and wondering what you suggest going forward? Thank you. Best.
A. I might still consider trimming some INTC, frankly. It’s a great company, but no reason to have it as “big position for your family” as you seem to have it right now if you’re worried about it.
Q. Cody – You buying more GLD? Gold seems to have hit a lull for some reason.
A. Yes, nibbled a little GLD for the hedge fund this week.
Q. How is your daughter?
A. Daughter is doing great! Thanks for asking. On mornings like this one, where I had/took a little extra time to spend with them before work, well, my two daughters and my wife just about fill my heart with joy.