Q. Thanks for your update. I’m 80% cash, nibbling slowly on your names. Question: Does part of you wonder if this might become 2001 again where high fliers like WORK fall 50% – 70%? I’ve been nibbling your recommendations steadily, but they keep putting in lower lows – and we haven’t had a real breakdown yet? Why would the market rally now? Tariffs, impeachment, recession worries? Is it possible this is 2001 all over again?
A. Yes, I’m always worried that there could be another impending crash. But we have to be guided by our analysis, which continues to point bullish for now for names like Slack WORK. By the way, do you realize that WORK did fall almost 50% from its highs a few weeks ago to its lows a few days ago. It could drop another 50% in a bear market tho.
Q. Don’t get me wrong – I’m not gloom and doom. Try to stay calm and cool. But we haven’t had a crazy sell-off in years. Not far-fetched (is it?) that WORK could be $10, Twitter $20 (or whatever) before this is over?
A. It’s not impossible, but “far-fetched” is a strange term to define. I doubt it happens in the next few months, but it could.
Q. Cody, on SLACK , are you leaving more room to buy more if it goes down more?
A. Yes.
Q. @Cody Q&A: can you please comment on news about possible stock delisting of Chinese companies? Thank you!
A. The SEC should do a better job of vetting the deals from China that come to our markets anyway. I doubt there’s a delisting the major Chinese stocks.
Q. For tomorrow’s chat – thoughts on prosy?
A. What’s Prosy? pros·y /ˈprōzē/ Learn to pronounce adjective (especially of speech or writing) showing no imagination; commonplace or dull. “he junked most of the prosy script his handlers had written for him”
Q. TWC chats are anything but prosy.
A. Haha, well done.
Q. PROSY is symbol for PROSUS N V/ADR. They have 31% stake in tencent and invests in statrtups from developing countries. They are the largest tech stock now in europe.
A. I don’t know it well (obviously! LOL), it’s not listed here in the US. Sorry.
Q. With this morning’s news of Schwab eliminating US stock, ETF & options commissions, do you believe that this is a trend that will continue to spread to most of the other brokers? If so, how fast do you see it happening? Also, $AMTD & $ETFC are getting smoked on the news… anything to look at there?
A. Yes, it will likely spread and within the next few weeks/by year-end. AMTD looks interesting at $36ish.
Q. Cody you mention in your space revolution email that you don’t like business model of AJRD and IPO as much as private space companies. Do you still expect they will perform great over the years? Any targets on these you thinking?
A. No targets per se. If there’s a Space Stock Bubble in the next few years as I expect, they should participate.
Q. Cody – with the upcoming revolution in Space companies, do you see them performing well on speculation even if the overall stock market falters?
A. Maybe, but that’s a lot variables to work with in trying to predict what Space Stocks will do in a bear market, if/when a bear market happens.
Q. Cody, please give your current view of $JD. I haven’t heard anything in media outlets about it since its positive quarterly report. Thanks.
A. I’m still bullish on JD, it’s a great company and a good play on China’s middle class growth. The valuation here is fairish, but long-term, I just plan to keep holding.
Q. Would you be able to send your analysis for WORK in numbers – sort of similar you once did with FB? Thank you!
A. Great idea! Thank you backatcha.
Q. At what price would you buy SHOP?
A. I’m not a fan anywhere near these levels…maybe back near 7-8x sales, which would be closer to below $150 than here.
Q. Based on recent news TSM has hard time to fulfill orders (too many!). At the same time MU guidance was soft as I understand and other companies (again my understanding from what I read in the news) are also mentioning trading wars affecting sales. I’d appreciate your analysis on these seem to be contradictory news.
A. TSM makes chips, including the smallest and fastest and most advanced chips for Apple and Qualcomm, etc. Micron mostly makes memory chips, which are commoditized. Very different markets though both markets are “chips.”
Q. Cody – are you adding more GLD on this weakness?
A. Maybe closer to $135ish. Sitting tight for now.
Q. With Bitcoin hitting sub 8k last week (now ~8300), any interest in Stellar here at ~.06 …. or still just the head honcho (BTC)?
A. Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin, I suppose is my answer.
Q. Hi Cody – latest thoughts on UBER?
A. Other than “ouch”… I think UBER’s being partly tainted by the Softbank/WeWork debacle and the IPO-ugly-market. I’m likely to do another tranche of UBER here. In fact, consider this a Trade Alert — I’m nibbling a small tranche of UBER near $29 here.
Q. Right now Uber is a tough hold. Are you still as bullish on the name as you were when you started the position?
A. I don’t know if “as bullish” is the right term, but I’m still quite bullish on UBER and just nibbled some more today below $29 here.
Q. Thoughts on this manufacturing data lowest in 10 years?
A. The tariffs and Trade War are impacting manufacturing. Not sure that manufacturing is important enough to the US stock market to derail the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market, but it’s not a good thing to see it fading.
Q. Cody, what is your view of Guardant Health $GH. It seems to have good science and a similar future to $EXAS
A. I mentioned a couple weeks ago in regards to this stock — another cancer company outside of my wheelhouse. Looks interesting, but it’s far from profitable and trading at a rich valuation of more than 30x next year’s sales estimates.
Q. What do you make of all of the recent repo operations by the Fed? Tens of billions of dollars to cover funding shortages certainly doesn’t seem bullish, but from recent overall market commentary it sounds like you’re not too concerned… (yet?)
A. The banking system is so dang convoluted, controlled and corrupted by the Fed/government/banks that I don’t think we can extrapolate too much meaning out of the repo purchases by the Fed right now.
Q. Keanu Reeves is alive (and so is a 4th Matrix movie), but is $NIO doomed?
A. Pick your blue or red pill…doesn’t matter which reality you live in, NIO, the so-called Chinese Tesla-killer, is doomed.
Q. Cody – Do you expect TSLA continue to march higher ? So far its in a 200-250 range. Do you a break out of this range one way or the other soon?
A. Honestly farokha, these near-term movements/predictions are just guesses when I try to answer your questions like these. If Tesla sells a million cars in the next 18 months, the stock will likely be much higher than these levels. Near-term, it depends of the shorts/longs push/pull.
Q. Just your best guess, which 3 names do you feel have potential for biggest rally over the next 6-12 months?
A. SQ, WORK, TWTR, UBER…I like more than 3….SPLK, NFLX, etc.
Q. Ha, forget my last question I guess. But curious if you see anything in particular poised to rally in relative near term.
A. Haha, it’s okay. Your question had fewer parameters and inputs for me to deal with.
Q. What % short hedges to you put on? Range … 5% – 20% or whatever??
A. It depends on the time, the market set up, etc. That’s about the right range for the last year though.
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