5G market anticipation, risky options, where to trim and more
Here’s the transcript from this week’s Live Q&A Chat, including a discussion on options, country music favorites and a visit with a subscriber in Thailand.
Q. Hi Cody, If you wanted to raise your level of cash a bit, where would you trim after this important run in the first months of the year? Where do you see some overextended stock prices where trimming makes sense and help raise some cash?
A. Great time to ask this question, after the market put in a huge rally yesterday and is looking to open up again this morning. I’d look at trimming 10% of some of the stocks you own that look most extended and/or that are lowest rated. Sell the SNE, maybe sell TST. Maybe sell 5% of a few other names.
Q. Your latest positions give a timeframe out 2021 and 2022 for 5G. This timeframe is really helpful and complicated for so many reasons. If you were to invest in PANW with options (calls) what would they be? They are very expensive!!! Yet, I am doing well with VZ and Dell options both Jan 20, 55 call. They are kicking in well. There is VZ, INTC, QCOM, APPL, Campbells soup all dividend paying so to get the dividend own the common!!! Clearly the options on Appl did not work out. What are some of the market conditions that move you to consider call options rather than common…certainly time frame? Thanks. I am relieved your family is all back home this was an intense period of time, as a long term subscriber have not seen such and when it rains it pours, sometimes life is very, very difficult. Thanks for your perseverance! Greetings from Northern Thailand near the Mekon River…another really hot day here now….. I like that the NYSE market trades at night here and so I enjoy doing during the day.
A. I would say please slow down on the call options. Use common. I’ve seen people blow up their portfolios by buying call options in great stocks at the wrong times. I sometimes get more aggressive in buying call options but it’s usually when the market is in crash mode rather than in rally mode like it’s been lately. I love that we have people on TradingWithCody.com every day from all over the world, and now I’m going to have to go Google the Mekon River to learn more about where you are. What city (or village) are you in right now?
Q. Cody, Thanks for your reply about options. They are a very small portion of my investments, yet they move like steroids..watch out! I am in Nong Khai Providence….in a small village Khon Khan….on a rice farm, with chickens, cows, and we fish in the rivers, pick mango from our trees and sleep in the heat of the day….shop in the farmers markets and I do not believe my Thai sweethearts parents have even been to a supermarket…little cash flow and twenty 50lb bags of rice are the families savings.
A. Wow, that is an incredible place to be able to be accessing the US financial markets and worry about call options vs common stock from! I’ll have to stop by when I get to Asia.
Q. Good Morning Cody, Are you still expecting AXGN price to top out about 25 in near future, if I remember you said that in a post awhile back?
A. Don’t read too much into price ranges or price targets. Things are fluid. I like AXGN fine here at $19 and might buy more below $15 if it were to go there.
Q. It’s been a while since you’ve done any videos (whether it be a Cody Willard Show or just a discussion with others in finance). Will you be doing any videos with other industry professionals on specific topics (stock, gold, crypto, real estate, etc) anytime soon? There’s plenty of value in those conversations, in my opinion.
A. I was just thinking I should start doing some interviews again. You can imagine that hasn’t been much of a priority while A was in the hospital in Jan and Feb but now that things are a bit more closer to my family’s version of “normal” I should set some interviews up. I won’t be going back to the fancy production value of “The Cody Willard Show” anytime soon, but maybe a podcast and/or short video of the interviews.
Q. Cody, Any opinion on NIO after its recent pull back and earnings report?
A. I’d reiterate what I wrote back in December when somebody asked me about it: ‘Here’s what Andrew Left and Citron say about NIO: “After years of battling the “Tesla Story” Citron learned to recognize the opportunities created by total industry disruption and to disregard today’s numbers when considering the value of the disruptor. We also learned not to be short a disruptor with a cult-like following and a large outstanding short interest alongside a patient investor base.” I’m wondering if their having “learned to disregard today’s numbers” is a signal that the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market is just about over. I don’t know NIO well enough to make a value estimate for the stock and unless you’ve been to China and attended an NIO conference and/or driven an NIO car, I would suggest sticking to something you can analyze better.’
Q. Cody, would you run GE through your algo and say the result/number please? And what is one of PANW for comparison? Thanks!!
A. I ran GE through my WiNR ratio and WilPOWR Fundamental Analysis Rating recently when it was around $9 a share and it came out at: WilPOWR = 335 and WiNR = 12.9%. Meanwhile, PANW’s ratings come out right now around WilPOWR = 604 and WiNR = 33%.
Q. Cody, Do you think the cryptos will do some sort of a run sometime this year? They’ve been dead for a year and a half.
A. I wouldn’t want to have to bet the house on cryptos making a run this year. But I’d rather be a buyer than a seller of my favorite four cryptos (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Stellar).
Q. Cody, Outside of the 4 TWC cryptos (Bitcoin, Stellar, Ripple, Ethereum), could you name some others out there that you think may have an actual use case and thus have a chance of ultimately surviving The Great Cryptocurrency Crash?
A. I can’t say I’ve been spending much time digging deeper into cryptos right now. Do you have a few in mind that you’d like to share with us please?
Q. Cody, When do you think stocks like QCOM and AAPL will start building premium and running in anticipation of 5G rollout?
A. I think it could take a year before the markets start getting juiced about the upside that will come from 5G. But sometimes the markets see far enough ahead that I’d want to be in early rather than late in these names.
Q. What % of assets do you recommend holding in gold bullion/coins? Thanks!
A. I don’t like to guide to such detail, but I’d say somewhere around 5% I’d suppose.
Q. Kudos Cody on your savvy stock picks! I’ve tried to practice executing your sage advice the past eight years as a subscriber, optimizing your advice the best I can and learning by doing. I bought a few June DELL options, selling half on the two occasions you sent alerts. My faulty tendency is to hold winning options, foolishly attempting to buy the underlying asset which I’ve read is a bad idea. A few times option calls have expired worthless on me. Other times I prematurely panicked and bailed leaving a lot on the table. With time now a wasting factor, closer to expiration, what strategy do you have?
A. The strategy is to be careful, to try to not to beat yourself up whenever you leave money on the table and when you lose money — it happens. Options are risky! So use them sparingly and as for the Dell options specifically, all I can tell you is I’ll keep you guys posted.
Q. I’ve owned some MakerDao (MKR) for a while. I also have a small handful of STORJ (decentralized cloud storage) & LOOM (blockchain-based platform designed for large-scale social apps/gaming). NANO seems intriguing, but I still do not know enough to dip a toe in.
A. Awesome, thanks for this!
Q. I know you’re a rocker, but do you ever listen to country music (old or new)? Any favorites?
A. Waylon Jennings is one of my all-time most-listened to artists. I love Kris Kristofferson’s first album. Clint Black’s voice amazes me. I don’t listen to much modern country. Since you referred me to one of my newest most-listened to artists, Greta Van Fleet, who’s as good as GVF is in rock in country music these days?
Q. Chris Stapleton as you may know is one of those current artists who has that great “old school sound”. I’m also partial to the band Midland, whose songs also have some old school feel, reminding of music I’d hear on country radio in my dad’s garage when I’d “help” him with cars as a kid. And GVF, heck yeah man… rock on!
A. I’ll check out Midland. Stapleton’s pretty good too, I’ll listen to him today.
Disclosure: At the time of publication, the firm in which Mr. Willard is a partner and/or Mr. Willard had positions in some of the positions mentioned above although positions can change at any time and without notice.
