Look around — the stock markets and the…
Look around — the stock markets and the corporate economies they reflect are doing great (exactly what we’ve been positioning our portfolios for), but there are always crises in this world and there are always new crises coming along. The trick is to tell which crises actually matter and when they will matter.
So which headlines, if any, matter and how do we tell the difference between meaningless hype and impactful developments? If only it were so easy to answer such questions. The world’s economies are in a constant state of change, despite the static long-term trends that we’ve profited from over the years, Let’s break down some numbers so that you guys can see why I think some headlines are more important than others.
- Total spent on Iraq — $1 trillion +
- Total spent on Afghanistan — $1.2 trillion +
- Total spent on Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and other social welfare services annually — $1 trillion
- Total spent on bank bailouts, guarantees and other new bank welfare programs since 2008 — $14 trillion +
- Total spent so far on Libya bombings since March 2010 — $10 billion
- Total spent on foreign aid to Egypt annually — $1 billion +
- Total size of EU bank bailouts since 2008 — $1 trillion +
- Total size of PIIGS bailouts since 2009 — $400 billion +
- Total size of Ireland’s economy annually — $230 billion
- Total size of Spain’s economy annually — $1.5 trillion
- Total size of China’s economy in 2010 — $5 trillion
- Total size of Japan’s economy annually — $5 trillion
- Total size of US economy annually $14 trillion
Now remember, it takes 1,000 millions to make up just one billion and it takes another 1,000 billions to make up just one trillion.
So let’s review: We spent 10 times more in the last few weeks bombing Libya than we sent to Egypt’s corrupt regime every year for the last couple decades. The EU spent 40 times more bailing out the bondholders of the banking system in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain than we spent bombing Libya. Since 2004, we spent more than twice as much on the wars in Iraq and Afganistan than the entire size of the EU bank bailout. And finally, we spent some 14 times more on saving the banking system in the last two and a half years than we spend on the entire social welfare system for the elderly and poor in this country.
Simply looking at the relative size of these numbers you can see why I continue to harp on the Federal Reserve and the Republican/Democrat regime that’s continued to accelerate these bailouts and corporate welfare programs despite their huge sizes already. And it’s why I continue to think that we have a set up in which we will see new asset bubbles created that will make the dot-com and housing bubbles of the past decade seem like child’s play. You can almost think of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) , Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and other tech stocks as competing currencies against the dollar that the R/D regime and its Federal Reserve are devaluing by the sheer size of their bailouts and bank welfare programs.
And you can also see that the entire size of Japan’s economy is about a third of the size of the bank bailout/welfare programs created by the Republican/Democrat regime in the last three years. In other words, even if Japan’s entire economy were to collapse and end entirely, it could be argued that it’s impact on our markets, the broader economy, and our currency would be less than the impact we are already feeling from the last three year’s of bank bailouts and welfare programs.
Okay, let’s hit some headlines for our stocks before we move on: Any guesses on who booked the disastrous and hugely money-losing Charlie Sheen Torpedo Tour? From my favorite music analyst, Bob Lefsetz:
“Your failures sustain. Live Nation (NYSE:LYV) booked this tour. People know it and will not forget it. This is a rip-off. And it hurts not only Live Nation, but every concert promoter. Who is seen now as someone just interested in a money grab. Would Bill Graham have promoted this show? Where was the emcee? Where was the crowd control? Where was the person giving refunds? Where was the person trying to make a bad situation good? Nowhere to be found. An independent promoter would have to repair its relationship with its constituency. Live Nation is a carpetbagger which booked the income and then ran. It’s not only the record labels who are uninterested in careers, it turns out Live Nation doesn’t care either.”
And guess who’s running into ever more trouble for mortgage fraud/robosigning/foreclosure fraud? From my favorite banking sector analyst, Yves Smith:
“Lender Processing Services (NYSE:LPS) has played a singularly destructive role in the mortgage servicing industry. The firm not only offered document fabrication services through DocX, a company it acquired and was forced to shut down after the Department of Justice started sniffing about, but is being revealed to be involved in more abuses as far as borrower records and legal process are concerned. Readers may recall that it is also the target of two national class action suits on illegal legal fee sharing which if successful will produce multi-billion-dollar damages. This abuses matter due to the role that LPS has come to play. It is the biggest player in default services, meaning it acts as the de facto selector and supervisor of foreclosure mills via its system, LPS Desktop, which manages and oversees the work of local law firms on behalf of its bank servicer clients. It also provides the servicing platform for more than half of the servicing industry. And as our two latest examples show, the company clearly places its profits over integrity of records and due process.”
Sure looks like LYV and LPS are digging their own graves deeper in real time. I am sticking with the bets against these two. Until tomorrow, get some rest. Earnings season is coming!