Ain’t nobody scared! Here’s why you should be.
Ain’t nobody scared! Here’s why you should be.
Yesterday I asked Trading With Cody subscribers and Facebook friends to answer the following three questions:
First question: When was the last time you lost sleep about your stock portfolio?
Second question: Have you been trimming/selling or buying more stocks in the last month?
Third question: Remembering that I’m not a Republican or a Democrat, here’s a question for you. Putting aside any political leanings you have, is the fact that the FBI just booked the guy who was in charge of getting the current leader of the free world elected a big deal? Can it be a potential Black Swan event? Or just noise?
Perhaps the most enlightening feedback came from people who follow me on Facebook. Since I used to be an anchor on Fox, it’s highly like that the majority of my thousands of Facebook friends are probably Trump fans and/or serious Republicans and/or Fox News fans.
Here are some of their answers:
1. Not since 2008
2. Trimming
3. Manafort “could be” a black swan event if the charges they brought him in on were related to Trump’s campaign. They are not. The charges are for money laundering, and tax evasion for many years before he worked for Trump (years he worked with the Ukrainian government and even the Podesta group). No black swan event over fake Russia Trump collusion conspiracy.
1. Never
2. Rotating but getting more aggressive –
the market is in a sweet spot rightg
now http://www.lakeviewasset.com/technology/just-the-faqs/
3. You need to get the facts straight – Manafort got indicted for work he did as part of the Podesta Group – a Democratic Organization, not as part of the Trump election.. The market shrugged off the indictments as it should.
1. Never
2. Buying
3. Noise
1. Never
2. Buying selectively
3. Noise, noise, noise. Media types need a reason for everything!
1. Occassionally lose sleep over investments. I think the last time it was on a stock i knew I didn’t want but let an advisor talk m into it because of great dividends. Then I thought of selling it because they cancelled the dividends. And I didn’t sell but the stock sank from $32 to about .32!
2. Both
3. No idea what a black swan means in this context. I want to ask you Cody about bitcoin– I have been watching this bitcoin news for years. Didn’t make sense at first — in fact sounded super shady. A decade or so later, looks like digital currency is here to stay. Should I buy some? Which ones?
1. Never
2. Rotating but getting more aggressive –
the market is in a sweet spot right
3. You need to get the facts straight – Manafort got indicted for work he did as part of the Podesta Group – a Democratic Organization, not as part of the Trump election.. The market shrugged off the indictments as it should.
1. I’m just a small time investor but don’t lose sleep over it.
2. Took some profits last week and adjusted some to floating rates and scaling in to another prospect.
3. I study everything you report….I have no idea! LOL
1) Not since #Trump elected.
2) Holding mostly, very minor buying
3) 6-7 year old tax issues that have nothing to do with Russia. Just something to distract from the noose tightening around #Hillary over the real Russian Collusion regarding UraniumOne and FusionGPS.
1. Only in 2008-2009.
2. Holding steady but regretting decisions made related to #1.
3. Total noise and a waste of taxpayer money.
1. long ago.
2. discipline requires sales into strength.
3. it can be whatever it turns into.
1. It’s been too long since I’ve lost sleep about my stock portfolio. Not a good sign.
2. Trimming some, adding to others. Overall adding.
3. Noise.
1.) 2008
2.) Buying : Qualcomm, IBM hand over fist … (Impending multi billion dollar government cyber contracts) .
3.) He wasn’t totally responsible; HRC was a terrible person and that’s what got him elected. No black swan event. Black Swan is coming via Awan Brothers trial in a month. Go watch George Webb videos on YouTube.
1-At least a year.
2-Yes.
3-Noise.
Cody back now. There’s definitely some Republican-leaning partisan bias in most of those comments trying to explain away or even correct me about the facts I stated in the question. Meanwhile, interesting, isn’t it, that nobody amongst my Facebook fans said they are losing sleep about the stock market right now? Isn’t it also interesting how many of them noted that the last time they lost sleep was back in 2008-2009? And how about that bitcoin question, underscoring the bubblicious nature of the bitcoin market right now, thrown in for good measure!
Trading With Cody subscribers were a bit more balanced in their answers:
1. Never
2. Trimming
3. Noise
1. I dont lose sleep. I go to bed wondering when I am going to wake up to limit down futures.
2. I’ve been more trimming lately then buying especially since I nibbled at the most recent “pullback?”
3. I do see a strong possibility that Trump will not be able to get tax cuts across… I do not think EITHER party wants any success for him… I recall markets that “cared” about Cyprus, flinched at Greece and even freaked about Brexit….. but as Steve points out…. nukes in NK is a yawner…. better to be fearful when others are greedy…. doesn’t mean sell everything but definitely smart to trim some tranches while you can.
(1) 2012, when $AAPL fell hard, was the last time I had significant stress about my portfolio, as opposed to the usual stress. I rarely lose sleep over this stuff.
(2) I’ve been doing what you’ve been doing, which feels like more buying than trimming.
(3) There are a lot of black swan suspects these days. Trump is one of them, but so is North Korea. Seems like we are on the edge of numerous things that could cause problems for us. But Wall Street does not seem to care lately…Meanwhile, my portfolio is at an all-time high (I am sure the same with pretty much everyone else here), and I am wondering whether it is time to consolidate my gains, and how best to do so.
#1 I’m usually to tired at night to loose sleep.
#2 Been pretty much equal weight in my buys and sells. Taking profits and some tax losses (however starting to run out of these) and putting the $$ to work in other ideas
#3 Noise, noise noise. I think the Manafort stuff really shows what a shit head he was, Not sure there is much to pin on Trump at this point except it undermines his decision making process and who he surrounds himself with. In the end, as you call it, Corporate welfare is what will keep the market moving
1) I never lose sleep over stocks, it’s not worth it, it’s just money.
2) I have trimmed and also bought stocks in the last month.
3) The Mueller investigation was supposed to uncover the Russian collusion between Putin and Trump and all they came up with is that Manafort lied and cheated on taxas from his dealing overseases in Ukraine!? all of that pre-dated the Trump campaign! and Manafort was at Trump campaign for just 3 months before he was let go. This is a typical white collar tax cheating that did not need a special counsel, a normal federal investigator could have found this. The democRATs are quick to judge and make it sounds like Trump just got indicted. Muller was under pressure to come up with something after spending months digging and all he found was a white collar typical tax evasion!
1. The last time I lost sleep/felt real pain was in Jan/Feb ’15 when I first started investing w/ you. Was building up my positions as the market was selling off almost every day. Felt pretty nauseating at the time but ended up being a fortunate gift.
2. Have been a net seller/trimmer/hedger over the last month.
3. I don’t believe the Republican-controlled Congress will move to impeach Trump no matter who gets busted – the market may have momentary sell offs here and there based on some indictments/news but I don’t expect any of this to become a full blown black swan event.
Cody back again. I want to jump up and down and make everybody remember how painful the stock market can be! I want to point out that when NOBODY is scared about the stock market, we might call the current climate a bit “complacent.” You know?!
I want all of our Trading With Cody subscribers reading this to step back and make sure that you aren’t over-invested. Don’t just give it lip service, make sure that you’ve trimmed some stocks, locked in some profits and maybe even spent some of that money on something you and your family have long wanted.
I mean even today, dear Trading With Cody subscribers, we once again have another one of our stocks that’s up huge in the last two years popping another 15% today, this time, Sony $SNE.
Let’s listen to our own advice and keep trimming into the strength. With many of our stocks up 30% or more in the last month or two and so many of them at or near their all-time/multi-year highs, let’s be fearful while others are being greedy!
I’m going to sell 15% of my Sony into this pop this morning, which is up nearly triple from our average cost basis when were were scaling in and building this position up just over three years ago.
Be patient with your money. Be scared that you’ll soon be as scared Ichabod Crane again some day. And, no — no Halloween pun-kin intended.
