Alien Technology, Market Predictions, Bitcoin Party, Etc

Here’s the transcript from this week’s Live Q&A Chat, which was light on questions. The Q&A is not like this when stocks are crushed and set up as a good buying opportunity. Another contrarian data point about the stock markets.

Q. Cody: what’s your opinion on extraterrestrials and sequestered technology? Seems to be becoming a hot topic lately now that we are focusing more on space than ever before. Some believe the technology has been there a while and is slowly being released, or still kept from, the public.

A. Statistically speaking, and looking at all the new data about the seeds of life on every asteroid and planet that we explore… I am sure there are extraterrestrial life forms out there. And probably some intelligent life forms at that. I do not however believe that the US government is competent enough to keep the fact that they have alien technology a secret.

Q. Are you signed up for a Virgin Galactic flight?

A. No. I’ll wait a few years for the price to come down (and for the technology to prove itself since I’m a dad).

Q. Cody, Are you in any of the S.P.A.C, besides FVAC?

A. SPCE is a SPAC too. Before it was cool!

Q. Cody, can you give us a summary of how you think the markets will play out in the next couple months? We have the elections, the aftermath, possible vaccine release or lack of, maybe the start of a recovery in the spring? I have a lot of cash and am trying to understand when/if I should put it in the market or elsewhere. & 2) what’s your outlook for the real estate market over the next 12 months.

A. I’ll write up another analysis of the markets outlook in coming days. You know I’m mostly cautious for now. Let’s do a feet-to-fire analysis of the market set up real quickly though. 1) Markets likely pullback 3-5% before the election. 2) Markets likely stabilize and have some up 2% and then down 2% days around and right after the election. 3) Markets have a slow grind lower for a few months after the election. Real Estate) Over the next 12 months estate in big cities will likely go down in price and a good opportunity to invest while real estate in suburbs and rural areas will be bubbled up and preparing to come down for years.

Q. Being somewhat new it seems all your recent trade suggestions have skyrocketed. I was looking to jump into TSLA and FB and SEDG and evening bitcoin and I feel late to the party and don’t want to buy in along with the entire market at these highs… my question is where are you looking to put new money into play.

A. Thanks for joining the Trading With Cody community. You are correct that most of our picks have been on fire and it’s probably not a bad idea to be a bit patient. That said, I always suggest to people that they start nibbling maybe 1/5 or 1/3 as much as they want to own of a particular stock and then give yourself room to add more over time. I’ll do a Latest Positions Update next week where I’ll rank all the stocks on a scale of 1 to 10 and maybe there will be a couple higher rated numbers in there when I do it. But for now, maybe just nibble a few of the names and bitcoin that you mentioned and be patient.

Q. Cody, F2F, when would bitcoin goes back to 20k?

A. Ooh, that’s a tough one. I’ll Feet to Fire guess that Bitcoin hits $20,000 sometime early next year. Maybe rallies to $25,000 and then stalls and settles just under $20,000 for a few months after that.

Q. Was interested to hear your take on the TrueShares Technology, AI & Deep Learning (LRNZ) exchange traded fund, either in part (by examining some of it’s individual holdings), or invested in as a whole? With Big Tech under some regulatory and Anti-Trust fire of late, might some of the smaller, innovative tech found here be Revolutionary-status worthy?

A. I don’t like to buy ETFs, as I prefer to do the homework and find the best companies in the ETFs rather than owning all the companies in the ETF. I do like some of the largest holdings that LRNZ has, including NVDA, AMD, AMZN and GOOG, all of which I have owned for years. I like several other holdings in the LRNZ, including GH and DDOG, but am patiently waiting for better risk/reward entry levels.

Q. Cody, any new short candidate?

A. I liked the short candidates at the top a couple weeks ago. Probably not looking to push on shorts much right now either. But always looking.

Q. $TSLA. I believe Elon just tweeted that FSD’s price will go up by $2k on Monday. That would be $10k per FSD. Cody, who do you think would be the frontrunners for autonomous? I saw Cruise 1 hour drive in San Francisco and i was impressed. Waymo is starting autonomous taxi services. Baidu is been pushed by China. AMZN is betting on zook. This could be a crowded race.

A. Lots of reasons these companies are plowing into autonomous vehicles, mostly economic in reason. TSLA is without a doubt the leader in real-world self-driving technologies though others like Waymo are probably front-runners of some sort too.

Q. Hi Cody and thanks for the work you do. I wanted to know how you feel about contactless payments and the likelihood that merchants will spend some time/money upgrading their readers. Who might stand to gain if this happens? Would Square or PayPal be the best bet? Cloverfield?

A. I think SQ is prime positioned to benefit from contactless payments, but so are V, MA, AAPL and GOOG too.

Q. Thank you for the dvax trade I sold a portion when you told us too.!! With the way the stock has pulled back, almost to the $4 level where you would nibble more does this still have a great risk/reward scenarios even though the COVID 19 trails may not work out for them as we thought? Thanks for all you do.

A. I still like DVAX but I’m a bit sick of the stock to be frank. I’m holding my remaining shares steady for now. Not buying more or selling.

Q. I think its time for latest position update. Can you send it please?

A. Yea, I’ll start on one next week and send it out in batches.

Q. What is up w CRSP. Time to add to..?

A. I’m not personally adding more CRSP right now but I can think of worse ideas than nibbling on some CRSP on this pullback. https://www.investors.com/news/technology/crsp-stock-plunges-after-patient-dies-crispr-therapeutics-clinical-trial/ Mostly steady as she goes for now.

Q. Good morning Cody, SNAP looks to have had a good earnings report? I had it in my IRA and sold it a couple of weeks ago. How does it long term to you? Thanks Cody.

A. SNAP’s valuation is no longer compelling but I think it’s a great company with lots of good growth ahead of it, so I’m sticking most with my common stock though I trimmed some yesterday.

Q. Any interest in buying puts or shorting GM here? Up almost 25% in a month… bump today on some EV factory news…

A. I think GM will fail to deliver on its very low bar of EV promises, but I’m not sure the stock will tank anytime soon. I’d rather be short than long GM though as it has made a nice short hedge against our TSLA long homerun.

Q. Will you tell us when you going to buy second tranche of FVAC? I feel like lately we did not have guidance from you as you build a position. Does this mean you tell us a name and then it is up to us how we want to build a position? Or do we still wait for trade alerts as you adding? Can you please clarify? Thank you, as always!

A. I’ll send out a Trade Alert when I nibble another tranche of FVAC. I haven’t bought any more FVAC since I sent out the Trade Alert.

Q. I know slack is already in the dog house , but does that report about them not taking advantage of the work from home space give you further pause or just another analyst that know nothing.

A. Yea, I’m struggling to hold onto WORK at this point. Need to see their business accelerate.

Q. Cody, Time to nibble on CRSP here?

A. See answer above.

Q. I also like the zoom video chat calls as well maybe we can do one once a month or once a quarter?

A. Sure, we’ll do a zoom video Live Q&A chat next week.