These markets have been historically crazy for the last month. That's just a fact. Here's the transcript from this week's Live Q&A Chat. Q. Some of our stocks are down below our original basis. Wouldn’t it be better for us to trade with the trend until we have more clarity on the situation? Can’t help but to think we actually should be adding puts. Thanks. A. Most … [Read more...] about Trend Trading, Government “Help,” Bannon vs Bailouts, Buying Bitcoin & More
Trade Alert: Who’s Going to Benefit In This Strange New World
It's a strange new world we find ourselves in. Prayers for everybody affected by the Coronavirus, which at this point, is all of us. This is a human tragedy first. But my job... Look, the US and the whole world are already in a major recession. Revenues at companies like Apple for the next 90 days could be down 20% or more versus what the analysts thought they might be. … [Read more...] about Trade Alert: Who’s Going to Benefit In This Strange New World
Trade Alert: Prepare For Better Times
I'm glad I'm not in NYC this week. Wish I hadn't taken my family there last week. There's no doubt that the developed world has become Coronavirus obsessed. I would imagine a lot of this germ-phobia is going to stay with us, and that next year flu contractions will be down 20%. The stock market headlines are full of fear, warnings and what I might even call hyperbole. Here's … [Read more...] about Trade Alert: Prepare For Better Times
Trade Alert: Don’t Panic When Everybody’s Panicking
I know that governments' actions are almost always incompetent, so I'm not terribly surprised that the government has been totally incompetent in how it has approached the coronavirus breakout, but it is always surprising the ways in which they mess something up. In this case, wouldn't it have been easier to have started manufacturing testing kits as soon as the coronavirus … [Read more...] about Trade Alert: Don’t Panic When Everybody’s Panicking
Recession vs Markets, Is it too late to hedge, What’s up with gold, and much more
Here's the transcript from this week's Live Q&A Chat. Be careful out there, but don't panic. Q. Hey Cody, I agree with your overall take here but I think the concern for many is that it feels like covid 19 wont ebb and get solved or get over a hump for at least a few months, Do you think we are less than a few months away from some sort of longer term bottoming? i.e. as … [Read more...] about Recession vs Markets, Is it too late to hedge, What’s up with gold, and much more
Trade Alert: Flow into the market’s ebb
Over the last five weeks, I've been to NYC twice and visited Austin and Las Vegas too. With the novel coronavirus still growing in the US, I'm going to stop traveling for at least the next four weeks. I got back from NYC early this morning and am back in the office full-speed today. As for the markets, I'm doing exactly as I'd outlined earlier this week -- I trimmed the huge … [Read more...] about Trade Alert: Flow into the market’s ebb
Trade Alert: Seeing more trading opportunities in this crazy market
Was it just yesterday that I wrote: "I’m going to trim down a little bit of my longs into this huge rally and add a few more index puts and rebuild the index shorts a bit when the market rallies like it did today." Well, this morning, the markets were rocking, up 3% or so. I did what I'd said, I trimmed some of our longs and rebuilt some index shorts and bought some index … [Read more...] about Trade Alert: Seeing more trading opportunities in this crazy market
Portfolio Strategies For The Kurzweil Singulary Rate of Change Market
Holy crap, how about that move off the bottoms when we were buying Friday??? The extreme moves in the markets and stock prices and economic activities lately remind me to use my theory of my Kurzweil Singularity Rate of Change which I define as: What happens if it all works out? Even if it doesn’t work out, how low will we go and how long will we be there? I’ve talked … [Read more...] about Portfolio Strategies For The Kurzweil Singulary Rate of Change Market
Recession Chances, V Or U Rebound, Is This A Bear Market, And More
Quite a rebound from this morning's panicky lows where we were buying/nibbling/covering, but the week isn't over yet, is it? Be careful out there. Here's the transcript from this week's Live Q&A Chat. Q. Cody: what are the chances we slide into recession? How small companies will weather the slowdown from the virus? Is there enough capital to borrow for small cap around? … [Read more...] about Recession Chances, V Or U Rebound, Is This A Bear Market, And More
Trade Alert: Here’s the playbook
It's another ugly open, and everybody expects the close to be even worse, since they assume nobody wants to buy before the weekend. I think people were thinking that yesterday already and that means maybe everybody who wanted to sell before the weekend already has. Good thing we aren't trying to game short-term market moves. Here's the playbook for this morning. I'm putting … [Read more...] about Trade Alert: Here’s the playbook