Broken Record Stock Market, Masks Suck But So What, CSCO’s My Fav Stock, And More
Cody:
Well, it might be fun at some point to do a musical Trading With Cody Q & A, sample some of each other’s music. I don’t know if I want to hear your guy’s music, but maybe you want to hear mine. I doubt it. Nobody really ever likes anybody else’s music. Do you notice that? It happens all the time with friends and family. You’ve got to hear this song. They play you the song, you’re like, yeah it’s great.
Cody:
Welcome to another episode of Trading with Cody’s live Q and A weekly chat. I am Cody Willard. You guys are Trading with Cody subscribers. Thanks for being here. Markets, markets, markets. Did you guys see Netflix today get down seven percent? We bought the stock a year ago, 18 months ago maybe, a year ago, at $250 a share. It was being slammed because Disney Plus was coming out. Peacock had been announced. A lot of the competition had been picked up.
Cody:
Lot of the competition was heating up, so the stock got slammed and we snuck in and bought it. We’ve held it since then, maybe trimmed a little bit. I assume you guys have. I have, and hit $575 a share the other day in a spike, blow off top kind of action that we’ve been discussion in not just that stock, but many others. Why it’s down 7% today and down $100 from where it hit last week is, I think in this nutshell. Wall Street had extrapolated out the amazing coronavirus crisis acceleration of growth that Netflix experienced. Hundreds of millions of people around the world stuck at home. If you didn’t have Netflix, you probably signed up for it or at least tried it.
Cody:
So they’ve had millions upon millions of people sign up in the last 90 days, 120 days. Wall Street, in its classic extrapolation of the present into the future, took those new accelerated numbers that pulled forward growth from the future and/or included people just trialing things, and decided that that’s probably going to be reality for this year next. Netflix gave them a little bit of a reality check, said hey look, we’re not going to get another five million subscribers next quarter. Cut that in half or do two and a half million. It’s still great growth. Not as good of growth, but about half as many people. But the other problem then is now the bulls are all of the sudden looking at cashflow. The bulls have been ignoring cashflow since forever with Netflix and focusing on user growth.
Cody:
If we’re going to focus on cashflow at Netflix, I’m not sure we should because Netflix also told us that next year they’ll be cashflow negative again because they’re going to accelerate spending again. So look, Wall Street … another problem here. Let’s talk economy, not just market. Main Street is also feeling too stuck because unemployment checks, stimulus checks, PPP and retail is on fire as people just … “Look, I got 2000 bucks in my pocket. I’m 26 years old. I haven’t had $2000 in my pocket to spend since I don’t know when. The government just sent me money. Let’s throw half in the stock market and let’s run over to the Nike store and check out those new Air Jordans, the new sneaks. Spend a little money, stand in line because you can’t even get into the store because they’re enforcing social distancing and mask rules.”
Cody:
So you’ve got somewhat of a perfect storm here. You’ve got economic activity abuzz, you’ve got lots of liquidity in the market, you’ve got the federal reserve giving trillions to the banks and buying corporate bonds, and the Republican federal regime writing checks to anybody who’s unemployed or thinking about being unemployed as long as you’re an American citizen I guess.
Cody:
If you have a green card or you’re one of the millions of people who work every day in this country illegally and you didn’t get any of that welfare, good luck feeding your children this month. I wonder if that’s the policy that we should have. If we’re sending money to bankers, maybe we should send money to immigrant children too in this time of need. If we’re sending money … If you’re okay with welfare, where do you draw the line? Do you want to abolish welfare, well start with making every billionaire stadium owner pay for his own stadium. Make sure that Apple is paying its 30% tax rate. Yeah right.
Cody:
You and I pay 30% tax rates. The big billionaires don’t pay that, corporations don’t pay that. Just small businesses. So if you want to fight welfare, fight that welfare first and then maybe we’ll talk about why children don’t deserve food. Look, I can make the libertarian argument, yeah. Okay fine, no welfare at all, but across the board then people.
Cody:
Let’s wrap up here with a Masks discussion because it’s not only political, but it’s also market related because, look, I’ve mentioned in articles past that not taking COVID seriously, not taking the coronavirus crisis seriously and the risk that this disease poses to your loved ones, not taking that seriously has economic ramifications. The political tensions in this country over things as silly as protecting my daughter. If you could potentially protect my daughter, who has a trache and needs oxygen to breathe right now, if you could potentially protect her by wearing a mask in a time of pandemic, why wouldn’t you do it?
Cody:
Freedom? Fine. Fight border patrol check points on US highways because border control check points are not constitutional either. Income taxes, had to have an amendment created to become constitutional. It’s a violation of your rights. The government says justice should be blind, well, then the tax rates should be flat. No loop holes for anybody, no subsidies for anybody. If you’re against the slippery slope of fascism, then start there. Don’t start with the mask wearing question that risks my daughter’s life.
Cody:
There are freedoms that you don’t have that this government, this Republican Democrat regime has taken from you. It’s not about masks, it’s not about trying to protect your loved ones. I’m down with trying to get our freedoms back. It is a slippery slope. I’ve been preaching about this for 15 years on Fox Business and everywhere else I can about how Republicans and the Democrats take your freedoms all the time.
Cody:
It seems like a strange place to start fighting for freedom, wearing a mask. It’s related to the markets because I don’t know how we get all this toothpaste back in the tube now. If Republicans won’t listen to Democrat laws, Democrats are not going to listen to Republican laws. It is a slippery slope towards anarchy, you people who don’t want to listen to the law that your governor might have mandated. It’s not even a law.
Cody:
Anyway, I’m exhausted. I’m exhausted. It’s hard to take care of a medically fragile little girl. That’s my life. For five years, my wife and I have focused on trying to keep that girl alive, help her grow, and I’m exhausted. I’m tired. I’m tired of fighting it in a normal time. It’s much harder with coronavirus. It’s much harder with COVID. My loved ones don’t want to wear masks. Well, in my household, they all do, but many of my loved ones and my friends think masks are a scam, or that Covid protection mandates are some Democrat conspiracy. Meanwhile, my daughter’s life is at risk. COVID … I know people who’ve died from COVID. It’s not a joke. If you are on oxygen and you get COVID, it’s really dangerous to you.
Cody:
I don’t want to do this anymore. I don’t want to be the mask guy. Look, it’s not like we’re doing this because we want to. It’s exhausting and I just want people to care — if you care enough to stop at a border patrol check point and show them your ID then can you just wear a mask for a couple months so my daughter might not get this COVID until we get a vaccine? Let’s open it up to questions.
Subscriber:
Devax is rocking.
Cody:
Yes, it is. We bought that thing around four-ish. What, did it hit $12 today? It’s not all unicorns and rainbows though. There will be tough times ahead. Hope you’ve trimmed a little of that sucker. Just be cautious. Nothing is easy around here.
Subscriber:
I’ve never seen Cody give such low ratings in his latest positions update. It makes me want to just go to cash.
Cody:
The problem with just going to cash and the problem with even my rating system is you can’t time the market. I mentioned that, in that Tesla analysis, that Tesla was a nine plus when we started buying it at 250. It’s now seven-ish, six plus-ish on a scale of one to 10. You’re right. The ratings are lower across the board than they’ve ever been. Since I’ve been running Trading with Cody, the average rating and the latest positions update has never been as low as it is right now. It doesn’t mean that I’m going to cash though, and don’t necessarily think that you should either. It just means be a lot more cautious, don’t be greedy. Have some cash, put on some hedges if you want.
Subscriber:
A DVAX rating at this moment, please?
Cody:
At $12 per share, I’d rate DVAX a six plus, seven.
Subscriber:
Cody, generally say politics does not affect the market, but the left has moved way left. Green new deal, Medicare for all, free college, social reparations, increased immigration, all seem market challenging. What say you?
Cody:
It depends on your definition of left and right. Is bombing children in the Middle East left or right? Democrats aren’t saying they’re not going to bomb the children in the Middle East. Is a federal reserve and endless welfare for corporations and banks and subsidies for giant businesses in this world, is that left or right? Democrats aren’t addressing that.
Cody:
You remember Solyndra? Is that an Obama era, Republican Democrat regime give away to a private corporation? These days it’s Novavax. Have you heard of all the companies that the Republican Democrat regime is giving billions of dollars to right now in the name of fighting Covid and not disclosing why, not disclosing the contracts. If we’re giving the money, fine. Let’s give the billion dollars to Novavax, 1.6 billion I think it was, to a company that’s never actually delivered a vaccine. But let’s show us the contract, be transparent about it. So you’ve got Solyndra’s going right now. Is that left or right? Who’s giving that money away? The Trump administration?
Cody:
I guess, if you’re right, you’d love to give money to corporations. Wait, no, that’s … we were … Wait, so who’s left, who’s right again? Who moved left? Is the Trump tax code left or right because, if you’re a real estate developer and you have capital gains after the tax code that Trump passed, you never have to pay taxes again on that money. So welfare for giant real estate developers, is that left or right?
Cody:
I think we get lost in the weeds when you start worrying about “left or right,” and Republicans versus Democrats. The magnitude of the money that gets moved around with the great bailouts, the tax code, the military industrial complex, is on the order of trillions of dollars. A new Green Deal, it’s not going to effect you at home. It’s just more corrupt cronyism, just a different brand. If Republicans win, they’ll call it the Trump infrastructure package instead of the green new deal. We’re going to write checks and give subsidies to that segment instead of this segment. None of it’s right or left. It’s all fascist verses freedom.
Cody:
Boy, I’m not the happiest camper in the world today it seems.
Subscriber:
Cash seems stretched and vulnerable, as you have pointed out. I am 72 years old and have an outsized cash position. I have trimmed some big tech and have some minor hedging. Is that the playbook? Any stocks we should be dabbling or just sit and wait for a bit? Thank you.
Cody:
Yeah, that’s the playbook. 72 or 52 or 32, I would suggest having some more cash right now than you did three months ago.
Subscriber:
Everybody is talking about Livongo … I’m assuming that’s probably just way to high for you, but there’s two to talk about.
Cody:
Yeah. LVGO, Livongo Health. Do you own the stock?
Subscriber:
I do.
Subscriber:
I know that they’re involved in telehealth.
Cody:
Good answer.
Subscriber:
Thank you.
Cody:
I’m giving you a hard time, but there’s a message in that hard time of course you know. It seems like even myself, I feel that compulsion right now, like there’s so many stocks moving. “Got to put some money to work.” Why did you buy Livongo? Because it was moving?
Subscriber:
Yep.
Cody:
This isn’t going to work out well in the long run. Everybody is putting money to work because the stocks moving. That ain’t going to work out well.
Subscriber:
Well, part of it too is it’s a sector thing. We’re very heavily in tech. I’m looking for things in other sectors. That’s another thing.
Cody:
Is telehealth not a tech sector?
Subscriber:
Well, more of a health sector. I don’t know.
Cody:
Yeah. Look, I’m not trying … I’m grumpy, I guess. I’m not trying to attack you, nice lovely longterm subscriber.
Subscriber:
Yeah.
Cody:
But the reality is that that underscores the frenzy that’s out there in the marketplace right now. Livongo terrifies me. You’re absolutely correct. I wouldn’t touch it. I don’t even know exactly what it does. The valuations are insane. I don’t like any of this stuff. $500 million is what Livongo is supposed to do in sales next year, and the market cap of course $10 billion, 20 times sales. Company is not profitable and won’t be anytime soon.
Cody:
So could be, if you truly believe in the technology, if you knew the company, if you’re like, “dude, they positioned themselves like this. That’s different than any of the others and here’s why it’s a platform play and I can see it becoming a 10 bagger from here.” Then fine, but I’m not finding any of those right now, any. In this market, I can’t find anything that I think is undervalued. I don’t like anything, the risk reward. I’m holding longs because I believe in my companies, but the risk reward scenario in most any long idea is not tempting to me right now.
Subscriber:
I agree with you on the masks 1000%. It’s a question of respect.
Cody:
Right. Well, even beyond respect, it’s being a caring human being. I thought we were caring human beings, and if we’re willing to follow some laws, then let’s follow the law. We don’t get to pick and choose which mandates from the government we want to listen to. You could just be nice and choose to do it without a government mandate anyway. Good, caring Christian culture I thought we were.
Subscriber:
Yeah.
Cody:
Not just doing Christianity, but other religions you are. I know nice people and ethical people from just dozens of religions. I want them all to wear a mask because they’re nice.
Subscriber:
Cody, current thoughts on Slack work?
Cody:
I’m worried. Look, Zoom, Slack, DocuSign, they’ve got similar setups to the Netflix scenario.
Cody:
They’re in the same setup with Netflix I think here, similar setup. All of them have the risk that Wall Street and analysts, in addition to all the fast money that’s in it. But there’s the risk that the fundamentals themselves, the expectations of those fundamentals have outstripped the reality post COVID. Work, Slack, Zoom, DocuSign, Netflix all benefited from accelerated spending towards their product because of COVID. I don’t think we can extrapolate those numbers out to next year and I’m worried that Wall Street is. It’s not the most bullish setup in my mind. I’m holding my existing WORK position mostly steady.
Subscriber:
Cody, you’ve mentioned more than once that I like Cisco as a cyber security play. Please elaborate what makes Cisco a cyber security play.
Cody:
They’ve got a lot of different cyber security sectors to their business, but Cisco is the infrastructure running in that. Any cyber security is going to have to tie in with Cisco routers, and Cisco is an overlooked fundamental part of technology world right now. I like to buy … there. Cisco, I do like a stock! I like Cisco here at $45 a share. I didn’t even think about Cisco. I’m thrilled. This is great, I found a stock to like!
Cody:
The Trump Administration has threatened at times to delist Chinese stocks or to consider delisting perhaps. Cody, what do you make of this? Serious threat or a more distraction strategy? He has “let’s see what the retraction is model?” Does the administration even have the authority to do that? Then how does this figure into your analysis for JD.com?
Cody:
It’s a distraction. If you sold your Chinese stocks every time the government has threatened to delist Chinese stocks, you wouldn’t own a Chinese stock. It’s all blub. They’re not going to delist JD.com. Maybe they’ll start making these crappy, fake tech Chinese scam IPOs not allowed in this country anymore. That would be great, but I can’t fathom they would delist multi billion … companies that are worth $100 billion from the stock market.
Subscriber:
Cody, Sony and Qualcomm, do we keep a position?
Cody:
Look guys, you know. What kind of question is this? I would tell you I’m selling this. I’m out. There’s nothing changed with Qualcomm. They’re still set up for the 5G revolution and the stocks cheap, and you’re getting a dividend. I liked it a lot better at 65-70 than at 90, but I like that stock still. Not as much as I like Cisco. Qualcomm’s all right, Sony same thing. Loved it at 60. Now it’s at 75. Let’s let it catch its breath, but yeah, Sony’s got the PlayStation 17 or whatever number they’re on coming out.
Cody:
PlayStation four, PS4? Thanks a lot, guys. One of you might have known the answer that could have said something. Do we still like … What is this? Do we still like Cisco, Twitter or Disney? No, we don’t like Disney. Sold it in the Trading with Cody. Latest position update was sent out Tuesday. Cisco, yes. Twitter, yes. Work thoughts, yes, answered. Any thoughts on JMIA, the Amazon of Africa? Are eCommerce companies flying in these COVID times? I own puts on JMIA. I think I own tiny short position in it, but … actually, I think that’s all I have at this point, this tiny short position in JMIA.
Cody:
Yeah. Look, I have friends who are trying to make a ton of money in the markets right now while the making is good. There’s what we call workhorse for example, WKHS. I think it’s a fake Tesla, probably worth a dollar per share, company. It’s gone from a dollar to 20, maybe it’s 13 or 14 right now. It’s bowed back. But my buddies are like, hey I’m buying this thing because I don’t care if it’s a fraud. It’s going higher. I don’t think that ends well. Same thing with JMIA. I don’t think that’s going to end well. Maybe it’ll run to 940 from six or seven, or wherever it’s at at this moment, but I think it’s going back to two.
Subscriber:
Cody, any thoughts on space with new CEO from Disney Star Wars program? Is it ready to bust out? Space, I mean, virgilactic.
Cody:
I think one of the problems with SPCE here is too many people … It’s not crazy enough. It’s not fake enough. There’s so many fake, crappy stocks with low float that are going up 1000 or 2000% and people love that stuff right now. Space is too real, so no. But yeah, it’s gone from 16 to 24. What more do you want? In the last three days, five days, so I’d sell some. I’d trim some. I wouldn’t buy at that 24 because we bought it at 10 originally, right?
Subscriber:
Cody, do you see any robotics companies that could revolutionize longterm care with the rapidly again population in the western world in Japan given the rising costs of healthcare and the paradigm shift in human contact caused by COVID? Is this going to drive a new wave of companies to develop robots that can help the elderly?
Cody:
Yes and yes. I’m not sure there’s much out there I want to put my hard earned capital into at this moment because, again, robotic stocks are through the roof. Parabolic ISRG is the best one. Should have owned that one 10 years ago, 15 years ago. I’ve tracked it, I followed it, I’ve known about it and just don’t … especially back then, I didn’t like companies in the healthcare sector because ISRG depends on government central pricing. So the more you lobby the government, the more money an ISRG can make. I like companies that just sell products at good margins. Change the world.
Subscriber:
Cody, as a reader for the past couple of years, a million thanks, first for your military subscription program, and second for your level headed perspective regarding both politics, markets and the world at large.
Cody:
If you know of an active military member who is serving our country and who is day trading or throwing money around right now because it’s easy, please tell them they can get a free Trading with Cody subscription as long as they’re active military. Last thing we need are military kids and soldiers being scammed and wasting their money on penny stocks.
Cody:
So please, I do give free subscriptions to Trading with Cody to any active military member.
Subscriber question cont’d:
My portfolio is generally unexciting with standard retirement accounts based on broad based indices, liquid emergency funds, etc. My excess money after retirement savings is dedicated to Trading with Cody. Though my Trading with Cody positions are a small percentage of my overall portfolio, my question touches on both. With stimulus expiring this month, it seems that rent payments and mortgage payments may be in jeopardy. On top of that, popular TV host, John Oliver, even advocated for rent strikes on his HBO show. With a chunk of my retirement accounts invested in [inaudible 00:35:48], and as a landlord myself at the single property I’m worried. I’m most worried about the broader implications for the markets. Two questions. Should I be worried, or is this all overblown? If it is a likely scenario of cratering rent and eventual mortgage defaults, how do we hedge against this?
Cody:
Good question, and I don’t know the real answer. This is part of that toothpaste not being able to get back in the tube scenario I was talking about earlier. You guys have heard me say this before, but for 30 years bankers have spent more time focusing on how to gain the government and federal reserve, welfare subsidy gained policy things than they do on banking and making [inaudible 00:36:49] to make the world’s money move around more efficiently. That isn’t going back in the tube.
Cody:
Bankers still don’t bank. It’s still much more profitable to front run the federal reserve corporate bond buying frenzy than it is to divide mortgages to people who are trying to move or refinance. My instinct is that, no, that’s totally overblown. People will pay rent, people have to pay rent. The landlord lobbying, the real estate the banks own, all this real estate and land and rental property, and there’s no way that the banks are going to allow, regardless of whether it’s Republican or Democrat administration. The Democrats aren’t going to go against the banks, so no, the Democrats will not embrace a nationwide rent strike or something like that. I don’t think you need to worry about it too much.
Cody:
You should be worried about rent being paid by people who formally worked at small businesses and no longer do. Millions of small businesses and there are tens of millions of employees that are not coming back to work or probably not going to make their rent payment in the next few months. So I would not be buying rental properties at this moment.
Cody:
Cody, you were right about the masks. I’m a chiropractor and I wear one every time I go out.
Cody:
My best friend, one of my best friends from college and to this day, I mentioned before, he was even on the chat last time. He’s a hand transplant surgeon at Johns Hopkins, and he said it this way. He’s like, number one, it doesn’t effect his breathing or his oxygen levels wearing a mask for 16 straight hours in surgery, connecting molecular nerve endings to each other in people’s hands as he reconnects two hands from a cadaver onto a soldier who has lost his hands in battle.
Cody:
My buddy, the doctor, is wearing a mask for 16 hours and his oxygen levels are staying up. He’s able to actually focus that well and do molecular nerve connections. His other point is he’s not wearing the mask to protect himself. When he goes in to do surgery on molecular nerve endings and reconnecting hands to a soldier who lost his hands, he’s protecting the soldier from his breath, from the germs in his breath. The doctor is protecting the patient by wearing a mask.
Cody:
It’s not about you. It’s about Amaris, my daughter, and about your loved ones. They’ll get COVID because you refuse to wear a mask. Let’s say it turns out in 10 years we’re like, look, the masks didn’t help at all. Number one, I don’t know if I believe them. Number two, I’m still willing to try. If it might help, I’ll do it. Cody, any thoughts on silver? Seems to be acting stronger than gold right now. Is it ready to bust out?
Subscriber:
My daughter and I run a small storefront business in Brooklyn. Many of our neighbors have closed forever. She’s fine because of creativity in making a living without opening. Why should she reopen if she can make money from home without the risk? Nobody questioning that.
Subscriber:
Yeah, we’ve been talking about it. The supplier that she’s using though wants her to have a storefront. So we can be like a lot of the contractors who just open the storefront so people will sell them things.
Cody:
That’s interesting. I didn’t know that. The fact of the matter is, if you’re elderly or at all immunocompromised, you need to try to avoid getting COVID until there’s a vaccine.
Subscriber:
Sure. I don’t believe there’ll be a vaccine.
Cody:
Assuming … Right.
Subscriber:
They’ll just give you medication that gets it under control.
Cody:
That’s where I get worried for someone like my daughter, who’s already on oxygen. Whatever the standard treatment for a COVID person, a person coming in suffering from COVID, is not going to apply well to a trisomi 13 girl with a trache. So assuming that there would be a vaccine at some point, you probably could go back to opening. The flip side is, if there is no vaccine coming in the next year or two, then probably all of us are going to get COVID eventually in the next year or two.
Subscriber:
We might have already been … Almost all of us might already be exposed.
Cody:
I hope and pray that my family has already had it and has the antibodies. But we don’t know the antibodies will help. We don’t know if the vaccine will help. But assuming that there is a way to get to a post COVID reality, then maybe you go back and open a storefront. But until that point, why would you risk … Again, if you’re a 25 year old kid and you’re superman, I can see me back in that day and age being like, look, I’m not too worried about it. I’d hope I’d still wear a mask, that 25 year old Cody would still care enough about people that might die because I spread the disease that I would wear the mask. But I don’t think I’d be really worried even if I didn’t have a mask. Maybe I wouldn’t be so worried. But look, we’re not going to send our healthy kid to school, and neither will most of my family even if they don’t really think COVID is that serious.
Subscriber:
School is a big question right now. School is really a big question. How are we going to educate this generation? Are they going to be another lost generation?
Cody:
No easy answer.
Subscriber:
I know.
Cody:
No easy answer.
Subscriber:
I have no answer.
Cody:
Look, that’s one of those things where it’s not like I’m sitting here saying that we should shut down restaurants, which we are in New Mexico. The brainwashed Republicanites are mad at the people who are brainwashed Democratites, and mad at the Democrat governor because she’s Democrat and she’s putting in a law that is effecting real livelihoods. I’m not saying we should shut down restaurants. I’m saying, if you’re a restaurant and you want my business, you sure as heck better make sure you’re socially distancing and everybody in that establishment is wearing a mask.
Cody:
I will support you. I will be buying stuff from you. I will be ordering from you. I’ll even send you a donation if I thought of it, if you needed it. What I’ve said all along and what I’m still confused about is I’m not saying we should shut down the country.
Cody:
Look, the idea is that we could have at least established standards. Republicans and Democrats together could have put it on industry. The Republicans are supposed to say government shouldn’t do stuff. Industry should do stuff. So the industry, you should have immediately gone to the industries and said, “You’re retail lobbying group. You’re a retail industry group. You set standards for what is okay to do in a retail industry. Let’s go get some scientists, go get some help, and figure out what you guys need to do.” You’re a dental office. Do the standardization of what the dental … It shouldn’t be the governor. It shouldn’t be the government that’s doing that necessarily.
Cody:
There could be an argument to be made that this is a time that maybe we do need the government to protect us. That’s the only job the government’s really got is to protect us. So maybe this is … you could make that argument, but at the same time we could have done all of this without shutting down. Maybe you did a two week shut down to figure it out, but we could have been, early April, late April been reopening the economy. But what we’ve done now is politicized even the masks, politicized even reopening. Forget politicization. It’s even worse. It’s partisanization.
Cody:
Now I guess we’ve got this binary choice you have to make: You’re either for shutting it down or you’re against masks.
Cody:
We can be for both. Don’t shut it down, but let’s wear masks.I am tired, tired of worrying about Amaris and tired of worrying about valuations. I’m tired of telling people to be cautious in the market and everybody telling me, “Cody, I’m in too much cash now.” This has been a replay now for three or four weeks, right? You guys been feeling this? Like a record player going. Pick it up, go back to the first song. Let’s play it again. “I don’t like valuations. You guys should be cautious right now.” Then your song comes on. “Cody, I got too much cash. I got too much cash and markets are moving. I’m not making enough money.”
Cody:
Then my song comes up. “Be cautious. I don’t like valuations.” This is going to be a replay for the next I don’t know how long, guys. Get used to it. We’re probably in a little bit of a blow off top market and it could be this week, it could be a month, it could be two months of this, people. I don’t think the markets are going to quite break out, but you’re going to have all these little spaces and sectors and rotations where people will be making money.
Cody:
Then I’m going to hit replay, rewind, play. “I don’t like valuations. You guys should be cautious.” I’m sick of it, sick of it, sick of it all. I’m sick of COVID, sick of Trading with Cody, sick of the stocks, sick of thinking about it, sick of taking care of Amaris and having to avoid … When I go play golf, I wiped everything down with Clorox wipes. My clubs, the cart. This sucks. I don’t want to be like this anymore. I’m sick of it. Are you guys sick of it? Yeah.
Cody:
Imagine if the markets were crushed. Imagine if you’re losing your ass right now, imagine you’re down 30% instead of up 30%. Then you’re going to be … then you’re really going to be sick of it. Guess what? You guys have seen this before. You’ve been with me for years. There’s times when everything I bought is rocking. 97% hit rate like we’ve got right now. I’m pretty damn smart, aren’t I? There are times when our stocks don’t all go up. Two months, three months after Amaris was born five years ago, it was hard, stressful. It was new then. It was a lot harder then than it is now, even with COVID.
Cody:
And the markets got slammed. Apple down 30%, Google 35, Amazon 40. Every stock we owned down 20 to 40, 50% just relentless selling. One day I’m in the room, the hospital with Amaris waiting for the doctor to come in and tell us if her skull is even going to grow enough or if we’re going to have to go to Dallas to have cranial surgery, spend the next year in Dallas at hospitals. It’s 8:30 in the morning and, as I’m going into that room where we can’t use our cellphones, the market is down 1000 points and I sent out a Trade Alert to buy stocks at that moment . That’s hard and that was the right trade.
Cody:
We don’t have that right now. We feel good, right? It’s hard, but at least the money is good. There’s no difference between five years ago, two months after Amaris was born, and right now, except the psychology of people putting money in the markets is a little different. That psychology changes and it’s going to be really hard, and I’m going to feel really dumb for owning any of these stocks at some point. That’s when I’ll want to buy again. Then I’ll be a record play, rerun, rewinding myself from one side at a time.
Cody:
Let’s just rewind to last year. Tesla, 250. It was the greatest stock I’ve seen in years. This was the best opportunity since I I can’t remember. Apple at a dollar was the last time I saw something like Tesla at $240 last year. The set up there … then Tesla at $220. It’s down 10% and I’m like, “Tesla at $220 is the best opportunity I have seen in my lifetime,: and your song was, “but Cody, I’m already down 10%. This is stupid. Why would be buy more?” Then it’s at $200 and I’m like, “Tesla is my favorite stock of all time. You guys go, but I’m already down 20%. This sucks, man. Cody, can we do something else for a while?” I’m like replay, rewind, replay, rewind. Tesla, Tesla, Tesla. For two, three months that’s all I wrote.
Cody:
Tesla at $200 bucks. You guys buy it. I don’t know what else to tell you. Everything else is okay. Fine, stick with our other stocks, but Tesla at $200 is free. It’s like the best opportunity we’re going to have in a long time.” And I had to rewind and replay, and you guys got sick of it. Something like that is probably happening right now. I’m sick of this. I’m sick of saying be cautious.
Cody:
So I don’t know how to time it, but this is probably a better sell than by moment, and I’m sorry to be a broken record. My wife just texted me and said please call when I’m done. So unless you guys have anything else, I’m going to wrap up. I’ll turn on the air conditioner. I should have done that before this started.
Cody:
That’s it. I don’t have the answers. I have some guidance, I have some ideas that are my own and I’ll share them with you. Sometimes I’ll be a broken record. Sometimes we’ll look back and that will have been the right thing to have been.
Cody:
Thanks. All right, peace, love and happiness everyone. Be careful out there, and I don’t just mean with COVID. I don’t just mean with the stock market. Just be careful and love on everyone.
