Cody Kiss & Tell: Footage from my drone, Valuing the China Amazon, concentrated portfolio advice and more
Cody: You guys ready for this week’s Live Q&A chat? I’m here. Let’s rock n roll. Check out the footage from my second successful flight of my DJI Phantom Vision drone last night. It goes even higher, but I stopped at 500′ because I’d already lost it on my own ranch earlier in the day on my first second flight. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_ypKIjZho0
Q. Cool drone video, does it record sound as well and all saved on memory card or real time video can be seen on a screen / other device?A.This particular camera doesn’t record sound, but I do have a GoPro Hero3 that I plan on putting on the drone next. This camera does use a Wifi booster that comes attached to the navigation controller that streams a live feed from the drone to your smartphone which also attaches to the controller. It’s awesome, but the drone needs some bumpers and buffers to keep it from getting damaged when it does crash, and it does crash.
VERY cool and VERY clear hi def like image looks like a great camera comes with that $500 toy U bought.Oh, to be clear, the drone I’ve ended up using for this footage is actually a $999 drone from Amazon. It’s an upgrade from the DJI Phantom 1 to the DJI Phantom Vision that uses the Phantom 2 platform, which is slightly more robust than the original. The first one I got was not fulfilled by Amazon directly and it was clear it was a refurbished or broken model in the box when it got here and I tried to fly it to no success. Sent it back and got credit and had Amazon send a higher grade one directly and it was perfect. http://www.dji.com/product/phantom-2-vision
Comment: Yes the image quality on a clear day is HI DEF like at least that how it looked on the video. They showed these being used in GOLD RUSH on last seasons and the footage is just unreal camera angles, close up, fly overs ONLY with a drone were they possible.Q. Yesterday you announced that you were locking in the gain on half of your July $APPL 550 calls. My mindset was that Apple’s price would move in an upward direction through the June 2 record date for the split. Was there something that triggered your decision to close-out half of your position?
A. Do you remember a couple weeks ago when $AAPL was at $575 or so and people were asking me why I wasn’t trimming yet? Well, it’s up another $50 since then, and with a 250% gain in the call options bet I’d made back in March, plus with $AAPL common already being one of my biggest three positions, it was prudent to take some profits now. I still have half and I’ll be looking to sell them on further strength, if you are right about $AAPL’s continued ascent. I’ll have my cake and eat it too no matter what happens with $AAPL in the near-term now.
Q. U had said last week or so the Scutify chatter got VERY emotional and heated and at times such as that you have seen 5% likes moves but in what direction you were unsure. Do U still feel that way and or know the direction? we have seen individual beaten down stocks move in 5-10% moves higher. Do U still feel a 5% move is in the works and to the upside?
A. I think we’ve gotten a couple percent of that probable 5% move up already. Path of least resistance seems higher for now.
Q. Looks like my question got lost in chat. Do you think that we can add $FB right now right here? Do you see higher prices into year end for $FB? Is it too late to add $YELP?
A. $FB has become a four-horsemen of tech, along with $GOOG, $AAPL and $AMZN, exactly as I’d predicted back in a Live Q&A Chat with you guys two years ago. I do expect it goes higher if the markets hang tough or go higher into year end from here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcz-OrCOJ-o
Q. $NFLX has gone up striaght up from 300 to 400 in a month time. Because of the $NFLX expanding in other countries, do you think higher prices into year end for $NFLX?
A. Netflix is a momentum driven stock and its valuation at $30 billion is higher than Sony’s, which is something to think about it. I still think $NFLX could get to $1000 before this app bubble pops, but I’m not on that train. Meanwhile, I do think if $YELP weren’t still a buy, I’d be trimming or selling my own already. I think $YELP gets close to a $10 billion valuation before I look to sell all of mine, though I’d take partial profits before then.
Q. Cody, are you going to add to $TWTR because of the recent upgrade?A. You’re asking me only about social/app stocks, you do realize? $NFLX, $FB, $YELP and now you’re asking me about $TWTR. You got too much exposure to this kind of sector? Just asking. As for $TWTR, I still think of my own $TWTR calls as a short-term trade (and one that’s a loser so far) and I don’t plan on buying the actual stock for an investment any time soon. I have plenty of $FB and $YELP in my own portfolio for now anyway. Comment: Yes I only have all the social/app stock and all options for now. Yes I think I need to diversify and should invest in stocks as opposed to options, but I am stuck in options right now and need to come out of it as soon as I can. Have Jan 2015/2016 options most of them. Cody: That’s a HUGE risk to undertake, keeping too concentrated in any one sector and using options to do it to boot! Be careful and realize that even if you do get out of these options and this position you’ve put your portfolio in with huge profits and success this time…that doing that kind of trading/betting isn’t what works out over the long-term, the next 10,000 days or more. Make sure you’re investing sustainably!
Q. In your May 13 “Weightings and ratings” you gave the $IBM short a rating of 7. $IBM closed at $192.19 that day and today it is trading below $183.50. Is there still substantial room for $IBM to move down?A. I think $IBM will be lucky to get over $200 again in my lifetime. I think the stock could get closer to $100 before I cover it entirely though.
Q. $JDSU is buying back shares. If a company decides to buy back shares, does it seem reasonable for the stock price to go up with them buying consistently?A. Not necessarily. If there’s more sellers at a given price than $JDSU’s brokers are can stay up with on any given day, the stock will do what it will do. I don’t trade or invest off company buybacks as a strategy.Q. Cody any opinion on $GRUB?
A. $GRUB’s sorta the poorman’s $YELP, no? Grub’s market cap is already $3 billion at this level, and YELP’s just about a billion or so more at this level and I think YELP is a much better way to play the same kind of industry. Furthermore, $YELP’s got double the revenue that GRUB does right now and will grow revenue faster than GRUB will this year.Q. I know you are not particularly fond of foreign stks., but am wondering about $JD- Do you see any opportunity there?
A. If $JD is the China $AMZN and I analyzed $AMZN with a base/bottom near 1x sales, then I think you could apply a similar logic to $JD, which is currently trading at .7X sales. Maybe $JD is a buy for the aggressive trader up to 1x sales and then its a hold anyway for a long-term aggressive investor.Q. Cody, have you evaluated Sierra Wireless as a play for the Drone Rev. portfolio?
A. I hadn’t thought of $SWIR as a potential drone play yet, but I’ll add it to my list of stocks to research on this sector. It’s more fun to fly my new drone than to research the components and markets that go into drones, but it doesn’t pay as well. Ha.Q. I know Liquidmetal Tech is a penny stock and therefore not in your trading horizon, however, what do you think of Apple doing business with such a small company?
A. I don’t think of Apple doing business with such a small company. I couldn’t care less about $LQMT or its hyped up but never-delivered upon prospects. How sure are you that $AAPL’s ever bought more than a couple samples from $LQMT? Sure is ugly revenue growth there, huh? Period Ending Dec 31, 2013 Dec 31, 2012 Dec 31, 2011 Total Revenue 1,026 650 972
Q. Any thoughts on Wi-Fi namely $RKUS Ruckus Wireless they are rumoured to be the Google partner for managed networks.A. Great suggestion, like $SWIR, $RKUS might be a good drone play. If any of the rest of you have some ideas for Drone Revolution plays, let me know!Q. Cody: whats your take on the move back to 1250 for GOLD? Plus your take on the 10 year bond yield now at 2014 lows 2.438%
A. Nothing new with gold. The longer it stays near $1200 or even $1000 an ounce, the more coiled it is on the upside when the jet finally takes off again. Yields are manipulated by TBTF banks, the Fed and the RepublicanDemocratRegime and they keep at the trough as long as they can. Treasury rates are coiled and getting more taut with each day that goes by with 0% rates and QE Infinity.
Q. Cody: Did you buy $FEYE?, I don’t remember… If you did, please, how are you seeing it?A. I did buy $FEYE, along with $FUEL and $YELP a couple weeks ago near their recent bottoms. I like the revenue growth prospects for $FEYE a lot but I need to get more comfortable with management and their quarterly reports before I make it a full-sized position as I did with $YELP. I bought a lot more $YELP than I did $FEYE and I bought more $FEYE than I did $FUEL.Q. Hi, Cody: I’ve been sharing your pessimistic view of $BKS ad kind of a broken model, etc, and lamenting the “missed” opportunity to short it. With Barron’s strongly positive assessment and projected pricing, and $BKS’s 10% jump as a result… How do you see it now? still a short opportunity )even a better one)? Or did any of what Barrons said resonate?
A. The only thing that would save $BKS from bankruptcy sooner rather than later is that they probably could go out and leverage themselves up even more and pay out borrowed money to shareholders like a Romney/PrivateEquity thief would, but that would make the stock an immediate and even better short. I wouldn’t want to short it just yet or just now. Maybe if it gets back above $20 where I’d first started flagging it as a short.
