Cody Kiss & Tell: I’m running for President, Tech M&A, IBM, and more

Here is the transcript to this week’s Live Q&A Chat. Visit the Trading With Cody Chat room on the Trading With Cody iPhone App, the Trading With Cody Android App or at https://twc.scutify.com/members/. If you have any questions about our service, just email us at support@tradingwithcody.com.

Q. Hello Cody. How do you feel the stock market will react if it “appears” either Hillary or Bernie were to get elected? The thought of either of them makes me sick but the media wants who they want and they usually get their pet.

A. I don’t think Bernie has a chance against Clinton. Hillary is so pro-corporation that I don’t think her being elected as our next president, which I frankly expect to happen, would be a catalyst in and of itself for a stock market sell-off.

Q. I find it interesting if not a little depressing that it is assumed if you’re successful in business (Trump) or politics (Hillary) you must be really smart. Maybe if all else were equal but of course it’s not. There are equalizers like effort and risk and even luck. There are also bad equalizers like corruption, the ability to lie without shame, the complete lack of conscience or empathy for other human beings coupled with the ability to mimic behaviors that look like empathy. I’m fairly certain “trumpllary,” or maybe “hillarump,” fall into the latter category. Bernie Sanders is a delusional useful idiot so we’re left with one legitimate option… whoever believes in our constitution – Ted Cruz.

A. Hmm, I’m afraid that I do not believe for one minute that Ted Cruz is driven by his love for the Constitution and/or what’s right. I see him as yet another lackey for big corporations and giant banks. For example, Cruz’s wife was a long-time Goldman hot shot and Cruz got in trouble for not disclosing how Goldman basically funded his first run for public office. Goldman and their like still fund Cruz today. Sorry, I do not believe that we can see positive, meaningful change inside the RepublicanDemocrat Regime.

Cody comment: Okay, I’ve decided to act and I wrote this up while we were discussing the Presidential Election in various questions during today’s Q&A. So here you go: For me, the thought of Clinton and/or Trump, or as I call them collectively, “Clump” getting into the White House scares me. The thought that a so-called “Conservative” candidate, an oligarch who has used the system to enrich himself through financial trickery, repeated corporate bankruptcies/recapitalization and real estate subsidies/zoning is somehow called a “Populist” in today’s main stream political realm is astonishing. Equally astonishing is the thought that the so-called “Liberal” candidate is another oligarch who has used the system to enrich herself through revolving doors and corporate/political/subsidy horse-dealing and who was instrumental in bailing out the banks, creating the corporate profiteering system of publicly-paid-for, sort-of-private, sort-of-socialist health care system (aka Obamacare which was based on Romneycare), has been pro-war and so on. I refuse to let my vote be held hostage to those two people and the parties they represent. I will write in my own name, Cody Willard, for President and I invite you to at least think about writing in my name or the name of someone you think would actually be a good alternative to these Republican Democrat Regime candidates. You can choose to waste your vote on one of those two candidates that clearly do not have yours and the country’s citizens’ best interests at heart. Or you can choose to write in “Cody Willard” or someone you think would be a good leader for this country. If enough citizens join us in the write-in, we’ll be igniting a true political movement that will grow in coming years and will drive true change from outside the control of the corrupted two party political system. I created a Facebook Group called “Cody Willard, Write-In Candidate for the 2016 US Presidential Election” that you can visit here.

• Subscriber Follow-up: OK, so two questions to start: how many write-ins did you get in 2012?
• I have no idea how many write-ins I got in 2012, but I’ll be shooting for millions this time around.

Q. I’m surprised there hasn’t been much M&A activity in tech land recently, could we expect to see some soon?

A. I’m not terribly surprised that we have seen a slow tech M&A scene since stocks were hit so hard and tech stocks in particular were hit hard — corporate acquirers typically get scared in bear markets and then end up overpaying in bull markets. As stocks have rebounded so strongly off their lows, we might see some M&A activity in the tech sector heat up again… networking and network security look ripe for some consolidation, for example.

Q. Cyber security stocks have gotten killed recently. I see that $FEYE is on your watch list as a potential buy. Thoughts?

A.  Yes, the very fact that cyber security stocks got crushed so hard in the last year is exactly why I’ve been sifting through the wreckage for some buys in the sector, including potentially $ANET, $FEYE and others.

Q. Hi Cody. Thanks for the info on $MU. Which networking & network security stocks do you think look ripe for consolidation? Thanks.

A. $FFIV is a potential target, but really anybody in the networking/network security sector except for $CSCO is a potential target.

Q. What is moving $IBM in a straight line up from $120 to $150? I bought puts in the $180 range a while back and rode it down 20 points. I am thinking this might be good place to short or buy puts again after the run up. $IBM continues to miss each quarter and usually has a good drop after. I guess I am possibly not informed as to what would justify this large move? I would love your take on $IBM.

A. $IBM has got some really neat chipsets based on human brain architecture and other very cool technology. $IBM is trying to make Watson the Xerox of the AI sector. Most anything tech-related that’s got decent fundamentals has bounced strongly off the recent lows, much like $IBM, though $IBM has been even stronger than the broader stock market. I just can’t get past $IBM‘s debt and long-time financial engineering games.

• Subscriber Follow-up: Just to follow up, would you be more likely to buy long dated puts against $IBM here or just let it go to see what direction it does take?
• I’d hesitate to bet against $IBM while the AI Revolution could brew into an AI Bubble with $IBM as the poster child.

Q. What happened to $FIT today?

A. I have no idea why $FIT was hit so hard today, other than the fact it had spiked off its recent lows. The best way to find the latest news, Tweets and StockTwits about any stock is on their respective Scutify Stock Quote Page. Click on $FIT, for example, to see everything in one place in real-time.

Q. Hi Cody: I missed the initial buy signal from you on $NVDA. I am patiently waiting for a pull back to buy in around $32. Any thoughts on an initial tranche price?

A. I’m not sure I’d want to wait for the first tranche because there’s always a chance that $NVDA doesn’t drop back to $32 again. Maybe do a 1/5th sized first tranche to get started and then give yourself some time for the next tranche.

Q. Hi Cody. Would your opinion change on $QCOM if you knew for sure that Apple was going to use the $INTC baseband chip in some of their iPhone 7’s?

A.  Yes, probably, but it would also depend on just how much business $INTC actually takes… I would imagine Apple might be sampling some Intel chips to test them out.

Q. Have your done any further work on $GWPH? My recollection is that your latest thought was that you would not short it and were going to “do more homework on it”

A. Yea, $GWPH still looks like a pretty good short so I’m continuing to hold my short there steady.

Q. When on Scutify is there a way to view both sides of the various conversations being posted?

A. Click on the blue conversation box at the bottom-right of the Scuttle. For example, in the picture below if you had clicked on that blue box it would have taken you here.

• Subscriber Follow-up: Thank you Cody; I had no idea what this button was for. Many of the buttons have balloons that provide an explanation for their purpose, (e.g., click to agree, click to disagree, reply to this scuttle, etc). The two on the right do not provide explanations, at least not on my screen.

Thanks folks, I gotta go eat. See you on the FlipSide.