Cody Kiss & Tell: Oil vs gold, Apple Pay, Zillow and more
Here’s this week’s Live Q&A Chat transcript from TradingWithCody.
Howdy folks, you guys ready to rock? Ask me anything for the next hour.
Q. Do you still feel that something like a bankruptcy of a major player is the catalyst for a permanent uptick in oil prices?The fundamentals all point to higher gold prices in coming years as the 0% interest rates, QE, and all the other funny money games the Fed and RepublicanDemocrat Regime have played with our money. But while the dollar remains the “go-to safe” currency in a world where every major country is trying to devalue their citizen’s money could keep a lid on it for a while. Compound the fact that miners aren’t producing much gold these days at these prices and you’ve basically got the exact opposite set-up for gold that you do for oil. I’d sure rather own $GOLD than $OIL over the next five years. (Or at least an entry point for equities?)
A. I wouldn’t say that a major oil company going bankrupt would be “the catalyst” for a permanent uptick in oil prices and/or a great entry point for investing in oil/energy stocks. I simply want people to understand that oil/energy/commodity cycles can take years or decades to play out and that bankruptcies are part of being in business, especially in cyclical commoditized industries.
Q. Gold has been all over the place — 1325 ceiling 1150-1200 floor and thus range bound. whats your take on the swings and what will help break it out one way or another?
A. The fundamentals all point to higher gold prices in coming years as the 0% interest rates, QE, and all the other funny money games the Fed and RepublicanDemocrat Regime have played with our money. But while the dollar remains the “go-to safe” currency in a world where every major country is trying to devalue their citizen’s money could keep a lid on it for a while. Compound the fact that miners aren’t producing much gold these days at these prices and you’ve basically got the exact opposite set-up for gold that you do for oil. I’d sure rather own $GOLD than $OIL over the next five years.
Q. If apple has been leading this market higher and u are concerned doug kass talking about 1 Trill market cap is the feet to fire market direction that is next a 3-5% decline vs move higher?
A. I think the stock markets are set to make a 3-5% move higher unless there’s a geopolitical or Black Swan worry kind of event that takes the move out from under it. Path of least resistance is higher. Kass being bullish on $AAPL and isn’t a factor in that analysis tho.
Q. How BIG is the apple pay space in terms of helping apples bottom line?
A. ApplePay could be as small as 3% or as much as 10% of $AAPL earnings in 2020.
Q. Regarding Apple Pay — man, it seems like I just have started using that more, and it is so incredibly easy. With wearables, we’ll be just paying with a wrist band on that knows your biomechanics… My question for you is this – is AAPL’s IP sufficient to give it the coren on the market, or can others duplicate that technology, ie Google, Samsung, etc.? What is AAPL’s competitve advantage other than first mover.? Thanks.
A. The biggest advantage that Apple has with Apple Pay vs its competitors is that its the only one that’s ever caught traction and now is hitting critical mass and none of the others can say that. Once Apple Pay hits a critical mass of users, it’ll be one of the primary means of paying for years and maybe decades to come.
Q. Cody, Do you see Twitter slowly grinding higher from here? Or is this a “prove it” situation and it will take another quarter of good results to move the stock. Thanks
A. Well-phrased question. $TWTR‘s recent strong earnings report certainly cuts back on the public pressure on the CEO. But $TWTR‘s still developing its business models and needs to keep delivering topline growth next report too. Feet to fire, I think $TWTR grinds above $50 before the next report as long as the broader stock markets remain near these highs.k
Q. With what you say about TWTR “grinding above 50 before the next report,” do you think it’s time to consider cutting back on March $44 calls? Is time going to become a factor soon– or now?
A. It’s a good idea to trim call options that you’ve got nice gains on anytime you’ve got them. I have no idea how $TWTR will trade for the next 15 trading sessions which is how many you’ve got before those March call options expire. I’m not being aggressive with options at all right now, mostly using common stock, tho my $TWTR positions a’rocking obviously and I am going to trim some of my call options there very soon myself.
Q. If you’re concerned with AMBA into earnings whats another chip name that will be prevalent in wearable and or apple handhelds to get interested in? SWKS? CY? other
A. $SYNA is another one that’s likely to benefit big-time from wearables. $INTC too.
Q. Wondering your thoughts on $Z acquisition of $TRLA and where you think $Zgoes from here? Huge surge in $Z today. I initiated short position today for a trade and have cost basis at $131. I envision a pullback from here perhaps in the short term only, but maybe this acquisition will thrust the stock much higher.
A. $Z removed its only competition as the GO-TO real estate app. I use Zillow whenever I travel to get an idea of real estate prices in each market. I still kick myself for highlighting $Z as a great App Revolution investment but never having pulled the trigger personally. I still think there’s a lot of Social Capital being created by companies like $Z and they are now going to be much more profitable than they would have if the DoJ had done its job of enforcing anti-trust laws, but that’s a different topic.
Q. Google founders looking to sell 4.4B in stock. is this why they are finally interested as they stated in their most recent CC to see the share price move higher after floundering stock price for 2 years now?
A. I think $GOOG $GOOGL founders have long explained that they don’t care about short-term results, giving guidance and so on. I don’t think Larry and Sergei are trying to game a 10 or 20% move in their stock, no matter how many shares they’re selling. They both want the stock as high as possible over the long-run and they have plenty of shares left to make it worth their while.
Q. @CodyWillard – whats your take on Sony’s news today?
A. Seeing Sony $SNE split off some of its businesses is a lot like what Dan Loeb had asked the Sony board to do when he’d built up his big stake back in the teens, only to sell it when Sony’s board told him it was in no rush. Well, the stock’s up 50% into this announcement and I like to see Sony streamlining to focus more on its growth businesses. So, all good for now.
Q. Do you think that deep in the money LEAPS on SNE ,e.g., Jan 2017 $22s would be a good idea here? There is very little premium so they should trade up with common.
A. Not a bad idea, if the premium’s aren’t bad. Gives you a built-in stoploss.
