Cody Kiss & Tell: When to Sell, Ciena Price Target and More Cody Coming
Here is the transcript to this week’s Live Q&A chat. Join me next Wednesday at 2pm EST at http://tradingwithcody.com/chat or send me an email with your question at support@tradingwithcody.com.
Howdy folks, let’s roknrol.
Q. Cody, I can buy stocks all day long… selling is an issue.. if I am up, I tend to think the stock will go higher and when I am down I tend to hold for a rebound (unless some real issues are in play). How do you know when to sell your stock?
A. Buying and selling and the timing thereof is always more of an art than a science. I try to “have my cake and eat it too” by using tranches in both my buying and my selling most of the time. I also will make sure to sell whenever a thesis I have has played out, right or wrong — I owned AAPL from $7 and GOOG the day it came public and GLW at $3 and many other stocks that I am glad I didn’t sell though I’ve also learned the hard way that you have to at least trim and take some gains and some losses as they come. Stick with TradingWithCody and we’ll help you make good decisions.
Q. Got my 401K rolled to IRA and ready to begin some small tranches, are there any best values right now?
A. I’ll send out a Cody’s Latest Positions post and it will include a current rating for each stock from 1 to 10 and I would start with the highest rated stocks first.
Thanks cody!
Q. Hello Cody, could you provide some links to your statement that * China, Russian, Brazil and other growing economies want to replace the dollar-as-the-world’s-reserve-currency with gold-backed oil trade? Much appreciated!
A. Great idea. Here’s some to get you started: Thanks, World Reserve Currency, But No Thanks: Australia And China To Enable Direct Currency Convertibility, China, Brazil Sign $30 Billion Swap Accord to Bolster BRICS, China Maneuvers To Take Away U.S.’ Dominant Reserve Currency Status, and this is from a TWC subscriber who shared this with me via Twitter: HACIA LA TERCERA GUERRA MUNDIAL.
Q. How would this play out and how might you be playing this eventual shift beyond buying gold coins to store on the ranch!
A. Ha ha. If the US loses its reserve currency status, here’s what I’d expect – Short-term market panic, dollar collapse, interest rates spike…followed by a market bottom, a reversion to a mean in the dollar value and interest rates. I do expect the dollar to lose its reserve currency status and for all the world’s fiat currencies to collapse at some point in my lifetime. Maybe another 20-30 years. Maybe sooner. No fiat currency has ever kept its value and what the Republican/Democrat Regime and the Federal Reserve and the bankers who own them both are doing to our dollar with bailouts, fraud, gimmicks, ZIRP, etc.
Q. Cody, what are your thoughts on selling out month OTM or ATM Puts, if you’re willing to own the stock?
A. The problem with selling/shorting puts is the same problem I have with shorting anything — you have unlimited loss potential and only a 100% total potential profit. If you shorted 50 AAPL puts back when it was cratering, you’d have ended up needing to put in enough capital to keep your account afloat as you’re converting those short put positions into long common stock. 50 puts is 5,000 shares of AAPL which is $2.5 million which is a lot more than the tens of thousands of dollars you had exposed on the short put options.
Q. A few people have asked the following items the past few weeks. So I wanted to throw it out there. Can you make yourself more available on the site more than the 1 day a week 1 hr sessions as we are now having? Many are seeking your tutelage and insight a little more often. 2nd- what is your take on what will happen if as you had said many times you see interest rates rising and its affect on our stocks and the overall market? Thanks!
A. Yes, I am already planning on being a LOT more active on the daily chat interactions between you and the subscribers here on TradingWithCody.com on a daily or almost daily basis thoughout the trading day.
I think interest rates will rise slowly but surely here for a few months or quarters and then the Fed’s gonna have to start trying to tamp down the inflation/bubbles in the economy about the same time and then they’ll be too late and the bubbles will already be too big to control and then the markets will collapse and then the Fed will start to lower rates again and we’ll want to be on the other side of the Fed most of the way. Make sense?
Thank you
Q. There have been numerous observations recently regarding the amount of time you spend on a daily basis actively involved with the chat room. I understand that you should be spending much of your day reading and researching, as well as constructing what are occasionally voluminous posts via email. In addition you seem to be a couple of hours behind the east coast. I also recognize that Elad Ryba has taken on some of the responsibility for this function, and very ably I should add. However, there is no substitute! Have you considered adding one or more additional one hour chats as an alternative way to respond to the many daily questions that so many of your subscribers have to the constantly changing market?
A. Duly noted and appreciated. I will DEFINITELY be on the site much more all day most every day from now on, cool?
Q. What’s your view on interest rates in 6 months -1 year time?
A. Does this answer your question? I think interest rates will rise slowly but surely here for a few months or quarters and then the Fed’s gonna have to start trying to tamp down the inflation/bubbles in the economy about the same time and then they’ll be too late and the bubbles will already be too big to control and then the markets will collapse and then the Fed will start to lower rates.
Thanks! Couldn’t look at it before. (looking to add some floating rate preferred stocks to the portfolio).
Q. By any chance do you have a range where you think interest rates can get to where they will have the affect for the fed to start easing to lower again?
A. No, it’s not about the range. It’ll be about the magnitude of the moves in interest rates and the coinciding moves in the stock market/economy and we’ll have to navigate it as it plays out.
Sounds like a plan!
Q. Hi Cody, A few months ago you provided me a link to search for breaking news regarding individual stocks. Please provide again. Employer utilizes websense to restrict internet access so I am relegated to an ipad tablet for most investment related web sites.
A. Was it StockTwits.com that you’re referring to? It’s a twitter-based stock site founded by my old buddy Howard Lindzon which you can search/alert/follow by ticker.
Q. What are your latest thought regarding Intel? You had some buy recommendations at around $24 a couple of months ago so just wondering how you see them for the next six months?
A. INTC’s latest announcement today with new cheaper, higher capacity, lower cost, low power consumption chips and optical network are big markets over the next few years and are exactly what we are looking for as INTC investors here. I’m sitting steady on some common and some calls in INTC.
Q. Cody, what’s your top two semiconductor stocks for the rest of the year?
A. Ooh, good one. Let me think of which other semi stock besides INTC, which I think might be getting a groove on back to $30 or so by year end. Maybe XLNX or SNDK would be second.
Q. Hi Cody. Can you comment on the WAGE September put? It has been all over the place, mostly following the ebb and flow of the broader market and is up strong today. You holding steady on that one?
A. I’ve barely got a toehold in the WAGE put position so far and frankly, I don’t like the action today…it looks like somebody big is still building a position here which would and could take the chart to $50. I’ll likely buy more WAGE puts sometime soon on strength like today’s but not today.
Q. WAGE finally seemed to be giving ground yesterday but is rallying today and Sep 45s are in the price range they were at when you first recommended buying them. What are your thoughts with little more than 2 weeks to go to expiration? ; based on the chart $38 seems to be a reasonable goal. What do you think?
A. As noted above, I’m not liking the WAGE action for us shorts here. I’d be patient and definitely would want more than 2 weeks’ time to play it out.
Q. Hi, Cody: Need a general reaction re AAPL. I know you love it for the future, I know you (and we) are hoping for some innovative products to revive the world’s interest in it as a — THE — leading-edge tech company. I know we think wearable computing is the wave of the future. BUT I’ve gotta ask (and i’ve asked it before), with other companies getting the jump on these guys with wearable products, good or bad — Google Glass, two or three others coming out with watches, other — and arguably better — TV products out there ALREADY — has Apple lost its reputation as, and ability to re-generate a reputation as, THE leading tech innovator? Have they devolved to “last with another first”? It’s feeling a little “meh” to me, now. Others (you) too? Thanks.
A. I think a lot of pessimism and very little upside is priced into AAPL right here right now. Lots of new products and product cycles are about to hit into year-end for AAPL and their existing platform and builtin lockedin user base ain’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Q. I know you don’t like targets but what’s your take on the CIEN earnings call and where this stock can reach Stock price wise, based on your valuations?
A. I think estimates for next year’s EPS for CIEN are likely to head upwards from the 90 cents it was at a few weeks ago to $1.10 or so and if the company can actually deliver $1.20 or more in earnings per share over that time frame, the stock could easily be above $30 this time next year or closer to $40 if EPS is even bigger.
Looks like investors on cien are listening already! All the best Cody!
Q. Cody, FSLR drops further. Is it still a good buy ?
A. I do think FSLR will be higher than $35 a share this time next year and in five years too, but I don’t know where it’s going to bottom. Speaking of not liking the action, I don’t like the action there lately, as it seems to steadily drift lower each trading day and close near its lows on higher volume into the close. That’s an idicator that somebody’s unloading and the stock won’t bottom til they are done. When they are done unloading though, the stock will likely pop right back up another 15-20% in a week or two as the selling pressure gives way to new buyers.
Q. Just heard the average US car is 11 years old. Do you think the Ford’s and GM’s are good plays for the next few quarters?
A. I’d rather own a supplier like Visteon to Ford or GM than F or GM themselves. I’d rather own F than GM though.
Q. Would love your thoughts on SI. They are a huge player in wind energy, among other things obviously.
A. SI, out of Duetscheland, is a tough call here. It’s largely a bet on Europe and I don’t want to bet on Europe. Betting and navigating in the US is hard enough. I’d rather own FSLR as my solar exposure. SI is a great conglomerate investment though for the long-run.
Q. Any thoughts on Potash Corp (POT) as a rare-earth investment. Some issues with the break-up of the cartel, but demand should only grow..
A. Here’s a long term chart of POT. I don’t expect that the global potash cartel of which it is a large part is going anywhere anytime soon while the RepublicanDemocrat Regime and their so-called Liberal/Conservative counterparts remain in power. I like that POT is down big from its 52-week highs and near 52-week lows. I might join you in scaling into some POT common stock at some point this year.
Q. Cody, can you give me your thoughts on Cirrus Logic. It appears to have bottomed out.
A. Good catch, I like CRUS’s chart here. I haven’t done any homework on the stock lately though, so let me dig in and we’ll touch base after I make some analysis.
Okay, thanks!
Q. GREAT JOB Stock picking CODY!!! ENJOY the starbucks!! 🙂 🙂
A. Thanks Elad! You too have been killing it on the chat and on the trading flow every day on TradingWithCody.com. All you subscribers who have intraday questions can get great feedback, advice and insights from Elad.
Q. Would you recommend investment property in Taos ski valley? Seems like its still a bit undiscovered compared to CO resorts.
A. Short answer: Hell yea. Longer answer, it’s all about Location, timing and time horizon. If you want to own it forever and leave it to your family then yes, it’s a great place to do that and probably not a bad time to get going on it. If you’re planning on owning it for a few years or a decade or something, I’d make sure you really know the market and the prices out there before making any capital commitments.
Q. Cody, when you start a position then haven’t mentioned about it for a while, can I assume that you’re still in it, i.e., FSLR, MSFT, etc… ?
A. Correct. I’ll let you know anytime I make a trade, buy or sell, trim or cut, load up or nibble. I’ll also do another Cody’s Latest Positions roundup for you guys this week.
Q. Cody, readers can read our chat without paying for. Your trades are revealed in our chat. Do you still want to leave it this way?
A. Sometimes we make the chat available to be read by visitors to help us market and show them the value add they’re missing by not subscribing. I will lock the chat back up entirely for subscribers tonight. Good idea. Thanks.
Thanks, Cody!
tx folks
Thanks Cody!
