Cody The Magnificent’s Fortune Telling For 2021
Some predictions for 2021 then.
1. Small caps underperform, especially the most speculative small cap stocks that are up huge already.
2. FANG or FAANNG (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, NVDA, GOOG) trades in disparate ways, with FB, AAPL, GOOG have a good year, NVDA trades flattish, while AMZN and NFLX underperform.
3. Oil trades down to $25 at some point, spends most of the year in the high $30s.
4. Real estate prices stabilize, as urban area prices stop falling while suburban and rural prices lose momentum.
5. Interest rates creep up all year and the cost to borrow money for businesses, homeowners and the US government are up 50-100% after bottomming at the current historic levels we are at.
6. China’s communist government continues to clamp down on its giant corporations, on Hong Kong and pushes the limits of its power on the geopolitical scale. Governments around the world will continue to feign dismay but will continue to do nothing about it but send out press releases about their dismay.
7. Biden and the Democrats pass some form of new tax code which will include thousands of pages of new loopholes, subsidies and protections for giant corporations, banks and special interests, just like Trump and the Republicans did. Real tax rates will go down for most giant corporations, banks, special interest groups and people who make millions but will go up for the middle class and poor people, just like they did under Trump and the Republicans. Republicans will pretend to hate the tax bill but it will pass anyway while Democrats will pretend that it will do lots to help their base, just like how Democrats pretended to hate Trump’s tax bill but it passed anyway while Republicans pretended that it did something to help their base.
8. Green stocks, including alternative energy and cannabis stocks, will pull back hard at some point early to mid 2021 and then Bubble Up again into a giant unbelievably big Bubble which will crash soon after the Biden administration passes its aforementioned tax package which will of course have shifted the billions of subsidies, welfare and protections that Republicans prefer for oil/natural gas companies to the alternative energy companies that Democrats prefer.
9. Bitcoin trades in a stable bullish pattern for most of the year, ending somewhere around $38,739.92 per bitcoin or so.
10. The Space Revolution gets more hyped as Virgin Galactic and other burgeoning Space companies pull off a succession of successful launches.
11. SpaceX’s Starlink changes the world for its customers, especially those in rural areas who will suddenly have faster Internet than their urban neighbors on old fashioned cable/DSL or 5G.
12. I’m going to put a lot of pressure on myself to keep outperforming, to find the next Tesla at $50, to avoid painful losses, to be disciplined.
Happy New Year to each and all of you and let’s be prepared for whatever the market and economy might throw our way next year. Let’s rock!
