Don’t Fall For FOMO, Softee’s Impact On The Market, Tucker’s Genius Bitcoin Analysis
Here is the transcript for this week’s Live Q&A Chat.
Q. Your last few trade alerts were really good! I have end of year cash I need to put to work. Any ideas?
A. I always tell people that if you feel like you need to put some money to work to do it slowly. Don’t fall for the FOMO (fear of missing out) trade. Maybe nibble a little bit of the stocks that you’ve been wanting to buy more of but give yourself room to do more in the next few days or weeks. This market volatility probably isn’t over and the market probably isn’t headed straight up from here after this recent straight up move that we did catch nicely with my recent Trade Alerts. Thanks for the kind words.
Q. With Microsoft’s earnings out, do you think it gives any insight into the braid market direction or outlook? *Broad* market direction lol sorry.
A. I think the “BraId Market Direction” might be more accurate than a “Broad Market Direction” anyway! I mean, the stocks in the markets braids around themselves like strands of hair on a model’s head. Or maybe we should call it a “Bread Market Direction” because companies like Microsoft are cooking up profits and we want the bread to rise. Anyway, I don’t put too might weighting on any one data point like Softee’s soft guidance from last night’s earnings call but it’s another indication that the economy is not on fire, that’s for sure.
Q. Do you use any sort of technical analysis to time your buying of puts/calls? What is your opinion of TA?
A. I think most TA is worthless but if I’ve done my homework and believe that the stock is going much higher on fundamentals, I do love to buy a terrible-looking chart, the kind that every TA technician says is awful. All that said, I can’t say that TA doesn’t enter my analysis at all, because I do look at charts and stuff.
Q. Can you give us a list of shorts that you keep an eye on? I need a short list to hedge.
A. I’m not sure that there’s a stock that I’ve mentioned as a short/put idea in the last year and half that hasn’t already crashed like 70-99% already. I’m definitely looking into finding great AI short ideas, but it’s probably a little early on that. Bryce has been working on the new and used car dealers as potential short hedges against our TSLA and other longs and I’ve added a little bit of puts on KMX and LAD but am just getting started there. Some other names to put on Bad Stock Watch List might be: AMD, BAC, FSR, BLNK, GM, GH, GDRX, LYFT (to hedge against the UBER long), MSTR (to hedge against bitcoin/crypto longs), RBLX, RUM, EWCZ, DWAC, PHUN, TOST. I’m short most of those names I just mentioned by not all of them. Please be careful shorting because the potential for unlimited losses on shorts is REAL! I’m not short anything in my personal account right now.
Q. Cody those BAC puts have done well, are you still in that position?
A. Those puts were more profitable a few days ago before the rally and I did take some off the table. The company got through the earnings report without a disaster but I’m not sure they’re in the clear yet with their balance sheet. I’ll be adding a few more BAC puts, 10-20% out of the money dated out to March or April at some point. But I’m not in a rush.
Q. Thoughts on shorting BRKB calls?
A. So you want to bet against Warren Buffett? Or at least bet against a huge near-term upside in his Berkshire Hathaway stock? The fact is that Warren and Charlie are very old and have way too much cash to be as effective as they were in the first fifty years. I think you might be the only person on the planet who wants to short BRK, but maybe that’s not a bad thing. Be careful shorting any options though as the potential for unlimited losses is real.
Q. Good morning. I sold half of my Tesla holdings yesterday at $146 not wanting to hold through earnings fully prepared to buy that back if the stock gets hit. In general, what are you thoughts on that type of strategy with so much uncertainty in the market.
A. I sometimes hedge my long-term forever positions like TSLA with some options or something — and rarely I might trim a little of my position before an earnings report if the position has gotten outsized from huge recent gains or something or if I’m particularly worried about that specific company’s earnings report that night. But I trust my long-term analysis on the Revolutions and the trends that I get in front of and I’ve seen enough people miss a huge pop on a surprisingly great earnings report that I don’t take the approach you’re asking about here. Also, I’m not sure the market is in a place of “so much uncertainty” than it usually is. The best time to worry about TSLA crashing was when it was ripping higher and a crash seemed almost impossible. Now that it’s already down 60-70% from its Blow-Off Top Bubbled highs, I think there might less uncertainty out there.
Q. Cody, Was wondering what you thought of Tucker Carlson’s surmising on the possibility that Bitcoin went up right after the airline glitch because the USA traffic control system was hacked the same as Canada and other countries and Bitcoin was the bribe?
A. I wasn’t aware that Tucker Carlson had any credibility as a bitcoin or crypto expert. Does he have a long history of insights on bitcoin and crypto? (Does he have a long history of insights on anything besides partisan polarization?) I’m pretty sure that he spends his day being a partisan pundit who says things to get ratings like most people do on TV.
Q. Ever looked into DEBT BOX. Commodity backed crypto tokens?
A. I just googled it and found their twitter handle and spent a little time on their website and it looks like another silly crypto that’s doomed. Fully diluted market cap is probably upwards of $1.5 billion at the current $30 price for these tokens. I can’t find a white paper, I can’t find how many founder tokens there are and it looks scary to me.
Q. Also, can’t thank you enough @Cody for keeping us up to date with your options/short term trades (when you buy and when you sell).
A. Thank you for being a part of Trading With Cody’s community
Q. Just curious what you think about reti’s and what if there’s any you would invest in.
A. I think you meant REITs. I have been awfully bearish on real estate for the last year and a half and I’m still not a big real estate bull in general, but I bet there are some REITs that have gotten interesting and eventually there will be some great buy in real estate. But I’m not a REIT investor in general. Sorry.
Q. What’s best way to play chat gbt please ??
A. I’ve been mentioning for weeks that I’m working on trying to find some good ChatGPT/OpenAI investment but the fact is that all these repeated questions about it is indicative of how hot AI has become since ChatGPT came out and there are probably dozens of great short ideas to start working in the AI sector at this moment and there will be even more short opportunities to bet against crappy and fraudulent AI companies that are going to try to flood into the stock markets with reverse mergers and name changes and other penny stock, crypto and micro cap scams.
Q. Unless I read it incorrectly, last week you mentioned DOCU when speaking of potential trillion dollar market cap creators (along with SpaceX). Could you expand on that industry (Docusign) thesis a it more?
A. Nah, not sure DOCU can become a trillion dollar company. I think I was saying that it could go up 10x or more from here though. That would make it a 100 billion market cap.
Q. Cody thoughts on SWAV ?
A. Good, fast growing company, not cheap on near-term fundamentals at all but pretty cheap on my model’s numbers 3 and 5 years out from here.
I have a radio station waiting to interview me at 12:05pm ET and it’s 12:03 right now, so that’s a wrap! Thanks all.
I leave you all with a shot of the sunset a couple days ago, taken on my new iPhone 14 Plus Max Magna Supra Super Maximum Additive (Okay, iPhone 14 Plus Max).
