Fear v. Greed, UBER Earnings, HOOD's SEC Problem, And Much More
Here's the transcript from this week's Live Q&A Chat with Bryce:
Q: What are your predictions of where the S&P 500 is going to be at the end of summer, November, and end of the year? What’s your analysis behind your predictions?
A: If I had to guess the S&P ends the year around 4950. Mega cap earnings are good and will probably keep growing (at least for the tech companies), but any company with good fundamentals has a stretched valuation right now. There are basically no "buys" out there. Even our favorite longs (other than Tesla (TSLA) perhaps) look a little stretched to us. As we've completed this big portfolio cleanup over the last two or three weeks or so, we've raised a decent amount of cash, and we have yet to put all of that back to work just yet. We are looking for a pullback to put some of that back to work, but who knows if we get it anytime soon. This market/economy has been incredibly resilient for most of the last 18 months.
Q: Feet to fire: (1) Where does housing go from here over the next 1-2 years? (2) Where do rates go from here over the next 1-2 years? (3) Where do you see the market into year-end (elections) / 1-2 years out? Overall, curious on your take on valuations, general greediness/recency bias (everyone scared of a mass sell-off like 2 yrs ago) across interest rates, stonks and housing etc.?
A: I would say greediness is fairly high, but probably not at all-time highs. Home prices are already starting to come down in some of the hot markets like Austin and Phoenix based on what I've read. In general, I still think there is a lack of fear in almost all Americans. We've had nearly three years of full employment and wages are up for a lot of people, combine that with all-time highs in the stock market and sky-high real estate prices, and I'd say a lot more people are feeling relatively more wealthy right now compared to how they used to live. Obviously, this is a generalized observation and exceptions abound. I don't think rates move much from here and I think the markets could be slightly lower.
