Fed Rate Hike, Debt-Ceiling Thoughts, WOLF, QCOM, And Much More

Here’s the transcript from today’s live Q&A chat. Also, don’t forget to follow us on Twitter @TradingWithCody!

Q. Do you think the Fed has to stop raising?

A. I think Powell is completely lost and in over his head and isn’t going to get his shit together ever. From “inflation is transitory” to “the banking sector is fine” to his horrible delivery at his press conferences, the guy’s ability to screw things up is unrivaled (except for prior Fed Heads who were also just as bad). The Fed can’t cut rates but I do think they should stop raising rates for a month or two and see if inflation can drop some more and/or if any other banking crises develop here. It’s insanity that a developed country, one that takes pride in economic freedom, would let unelected bureaucrats who spend their lives in echo chambers and getting rich from their revolving door careers between government and private sector, have the kind of power that these idiots at the Fed have. Das Kapital indeed!

Q. With the debt ceiling fight looming, what would you expect the loss in short-term bond values to be if the U.S. government were to fail to reach a resolution, causing the U.S. to default on its debt?

A. I’m not sure how to game bonds or anything else if the Republican-Democrat Regime actually doesn’t reach a debt agreement. The government plays so many games with funding and revenues and bonds and Treasury buying what the Fed is selling and vice versa, it’s a mess. I don’t expect the debt raise “crisis” to change much in reality other than maybe creating some panic the days before and after the “final date”.

Q. Cody what are your top 5 positions right now?

A. Top 6 positions in the hedge fund in alphabetical order: INTC, MP, RKLB, ROK, TSLA, UBER.

Q. What are your highest conviction buys today?

A. Not buying much today in this big rally. Maybe some MP, SMR, WOLF, UPWK and some of the hated Space Stocks like RDW, BKSY, PL. We did buy more SpaceX in the private markets this week.

Q. Those Sept UBER calls working nicely.

A. Woo woo. Take some profits. We sold a few of our calls and a little bit of common in the UBER as we had made it one of biggest positions when it was near $30.

Q. Plus I have been buying WOLF on each last 5% drop time to stop?

A. We nibbled some more WOLF after its recent sell-off but haven’t bought more in the last few days. Their silicon carbide semiconductors are Revolutionary but they have to execute on building their fabs to make these things. I might buy more near $35.

Q. Any more thoughts after QCOM earnings??

A. They were not good earnings. The company might have lost Apple as a customer almost completely already. I’m going to do some deep analysis and deep weighing of my analysis on this name this weekend.

Q. What low to risk-free investment suggestions would you provide to a risk-averse investor who’s concerned about the fallout from a U.S. debt default?

A. Cash and bitcoin and gold.

Q. What do you think about Stoke Space? https://www.stokespace.com/

A. It’s an interesting company, but still very speculative. Still private and a long way from coming public in this environment.

Q. Morning, I was looking at TDOC and the AI revolution your thoughts?

A. I don’t like TDOC although I haven’t dug into much of its AI push.

Q. Decent rally today, I sold the AAPL puts yesterday for a gain, but now they are looking good again ( if you think so). Same question as last week: any high-ish conviction calls/puts you like here?

A. I like IRDM May $70ish puts, I like AMD May 19 $90+ puts, LCID May 26 $9+ puts, MP Jun $25 calls. That’s enough for now.

Q. Cody just to confirm, you are buying in-the-money puts??

A. Yes, sometimes and yes right now.

Q. Do we like CVNA puts here, or do you believe they are actually turning it around?

A. No, I don’t think the company has a chance. Their quarterly update yesterday was a study in bullshit. I like CVNA May 12 or May 19 puts, $11 or $12 strikes. But be careful with options!

Q. That CVNA comment was gold. Careful as always, thanks for the inputs!

A. I told one of my hedge fund investors, who’s also a friend of mine and who used to run a giant car dealership chain, that he would have fired anybody who came in and said the bullshit the CEO printed in that quarterly update. He laughed and agreed 100%.

Q. What are the pluses and minuses of using Thomson Reuters for evaluations?

A. I don’t use it at all, but I do like their products when I see them.

Q. On the SKTLS website, it says that the free airdrop was a taxable event. Does anyone know how we were supposed to calculate the dollar value to report to the IRS (for the airdrop)? And where to find that information online? Vincehap1 Vincehap1 May 3, 2023 – 2:01 pm @david10035: Not sure if this is relevant to SKTLS airdrop but I read on Coinbase that unless the profits (or losses) are more than $600, they would not send any 1099 tax info out. Vincehap1 Vincehap1 May 3, 2023 – 2:04 pm Same with jackpots from some casinos. If the jackpots are less than $600, there wouldn’t be any 1099 or W2G papers. Vincehap1 Vincehap1 May 3, 2023 – 2:16 pm I also believe it’s up to them to issue or inform us, the recipients of any 1099 that they would be required to report to the IRS. As a poker pro that plays in multiple casinos, unless I’m issued some paperwork on any jackpot I won right then, I don’t have to worry that they would report them to the IRS. Some Indian reservation casinos report jackpots less than $600 but they would issue related paperwork right then.

A. The airdrop was for 35,000 or so tokens at a price of less than a penny, so that’d be about $350 so maybe that doesn’t reach the $600 threshold. I’m not a tax accountant tho and so I would talk to your accountant.

Q. Cody? Just wondering how your rehab is coming along?

A. We actually spent the first three days of this week at the hospital in Albuquerque because Amaris had a minor surgery that’s the first step in hopefully getting her trachea tube out in a few months. As for me, I’m feeling very healthy and have lots of energy since my heart attack. I’ve been eating healthier, hardly ever drink beer now (I do like red wine though and a little bit of that is allowed) and get some walking and/or rowing in as much as possible. The only real effect I notice is that the maximum speed of my golf drives has dropped from 160 mph to 150mph or less. Not sure how or if that’s actually related to my heart attack, but it is annoying.

That’s it for now folks. Rock on!