Gray Swans, Gold Outlook, TSLA’s AI, RIP Miel, And Much More
Here’s the transcript from today’s (quite short) live Q&A chat. And don’t forget to follow us on Twitter/X.com @TradingWithCody.
Q. Looking ahead, what black swan events are more probable? China invasion of Taiwan, another bank fiasco, Russia dropping a nuke, global food shortage, critical water shortage, or others?
A. I don’t think we get to call them “Black Swan events” if we are increasing their likelihoods. Maybe call them “Gray Swans” haha. I get what you’re asking though. Hmm, I’d say that all of those things you listed are possible with the water issue probably being the most like an actual Black Swan as few investors would probably list water as a concern. How about the governments at national and state levels running into major financial crises as rates stabilize here and/or go to even higher levels? That might freak the markets out sometime in the next six to twelve months.
Q. Please give some comment on BITO and the eventual (?) approval of other futures ETF or Grayscale BTC-backed ETF.
A. BITO probably won’t really be affected by any approvals of other Bitcoin ETFs.
Q. “In the event of a hard fork of the Bitcoin network, the Sponsor [Blackrock] will […] use its sole discretion to determine, in good faith, which peer-to-peer network […] is generally accepted as the Bitcoin network and should therefore be considered the appropriate network for the Trust’s purposes.” ^ This is worrisome to some crypto enthusiasts. What do you think of BlackRock potentially forking Bitcoin? (The above is quoted from their ETF application).
A. Seems like they’re just saying that they’ll do their best to stick with what will generally be considered to be the main Bitcoin if Bitcoin ever forks again. Seems straightforward that they would have to do that if/when Bitcoin forks again, no?
Q. What is your rating on Gold? What levels would you buy?
A. I’d rate gold a 7/10 right now. I’d buy more SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) for the hedge fund if it drops 5% from here to the $170 level or so.
Q. Your thoughts on GLD over the next year or two?
A. I like GLD and think it’s a good core holding for most people. For the next two years, I’d guess that gold will trade between $1800 and $2500/oz.
Q. Just bought a Tesla, Model Y. So roomy and easy to drive. Probably should have done this a few years ago. Is TSLA still the best way from your POV to play AI? What did you think of the Barron’s roundtable on AI this week?
A. Yes, I think Tesla (TSLA) is one of the best ways to invest in AI. Yes, the Tesla vehicles are so much better than any other car I’ve ever driven. No, I didn’t see the Barron’s round table on AI. All these stock pundits are suddenly self-declared experts on LLM, ML, AI, Nvidia’s pricing power, and which companies are supposedly going to benefit from all of it. Anyway, I’ll check out the Barron’s article.
Q. A few times, Jim Cramer has mentioned his dislike for Rocket Lab (RKLB). I know he’s an old friend of yours. Do you know why he has such a negative opinion on RKLB? (Yes I know we’re looking at where the ball is going and not where it is!)
A. You have to believe that The Space Revolution is going to become a trillion-dollar economy in the next five years if you are going to believe that Rocket Lab (RKLB) is going to be a good investment. I don’t think Jim’s picturing that future. Rocket Lab is certainly a high-risk investment though. I think the potential returns from this stock in five or ten years are high enough that I hold onto it.
Q. Is there little concern about Robinhood Markets (HOOD) losing a million users quarter to quarter?
A. I don’t think they actually lost users. The reported number of MAUs went down but that is just because users were not as active last quarter. Net funded accounts was actually up a little bit and will likely continue to grow steadily as HOOD adds more products and features.
Q. I may have missed the previous comment, but any interest in Archer Aviation (ACHR)?
A. I do think there’s a VTOL (Vertical Take-Off and Landing) future that will create trillion-dollar economies, it’s still going to take a few years before these companies have regulatory approval or commercial products. I still like JOBY better than ACHR.
Q. Any feedback on Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc (FFIE) or Virgin Galactic (SPCE)?
A. Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc (FFIE) is pretty much doomed. Even the bigger and better EV companies like Fisker (FSR) and Lucid (LCID) are going to be hard-pressed to get to a sustainable business model. Rivian’s (RIVN) has its challenges ahead too. Virgin Galactic (SPCE) is also in big trouble. Long-time Trading With Cody subscribers know how many times I wrote about how the company should be raising billions of dollars when the stock was at $70+ and the market cap was more than $20 billion. They waited til the stock went to $7 to try to raise the money and now they don’t have enough money to do all the things they need to do to make their business viable. I’d avoid either/both FFIE and SPCE.
That’s a wrap!
I leave you all with a picture of Miel, our dear Great Pyrenees who passed away over night after a wonderful 13 years on this earth and 11 years in our family. She was a great patriarch for the other pets/animals at our farm. RIP Miel Polar Bear Willard.
