Greece debt debacle: Analyis and playbook
My daughter Amaris is a strong warrior princess. She was born with Trisomy-13 and is still in the hospital — she’s stable and comfortable still, but we need her brain to tell her lungs to breath consistently so she can get off the ventilator. Thanks again for all your prayers and well-wishes.
I’m going to be working from Albuquerque this week so expect a usual schedule of posts, reports and other articles from me. Markets are closed on Friday, and then I should be back with a usual schedule of posts, reports and other articles again next week.
As far as Greece and the markets go, I think I want to see some more panic and when you can see the whites of the bears eyes, it might be time to start scaling into some longside trades. Nothing for me yet this morning.
I am always amazed at the extent of which governments will go to preserve the status quo. I’ve argued for five years, over and over again, that the only way a risk of Greece default ever actually gets out of the headlines is through a full restructuring of the debt with the lenders eating most of their losses and/or letting Greece just leave the EU entirely. Instead, we continually deal with this same scenario of governments trying to kick the can down the road by pretending these endless stop-gap measures could somehow become a real, permanent solution.
The whole Greek debt debacle comes down to this — stupid governments and their largest banks lent huge amounts of money to Greece that the Greek government will never be able to fully repay and instead of those government balance sheets and large banks having to eat their losses, they scramble with gimmicky accounting and temporary interest payments. They pretend the loan losses don’t really exist that way. It’s a sham, it’s a shame and the longer they kick the can down the road, the worse the retribution from the economy’s balancing forces will someday be.
Anyway, I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a few more days of panicky kind of selling action in the broader stock markets, if only because so many traders and bullish investors are looking for this to be the near-term bottom today. I’ll likely want to step in and do some scaling into some favorite long-term positions and/or even add a shorter-term long trade here or there if the opportunity to do so in a real panicky sell-off presents itself. We need to let the markets, through time and price movements, dictate what those opportunities are.
You guys know I will be aggressive when I think the time and opportunity are right to do so. Stay steady, stay vigilant and stay objective. We got this.
