IPOs, Constitutional Crisis, Anti-Trust, Timing A Thanksgiving Rally, Etc

Here’s the transcript from this week’s Live Q&A Chat. Now that it’s done, I’m going outside to walk up the hill and find some of my golf balls up there and hit some balls. I don’t mind sacrificing getting to play actual golf for the next few weeks to try to help stem the spiking case loads of Covid in NM, since the governor has shut down golf and retail shops and other activities. That said, it does piss me off when I see people still gathering and partying and shopping in retail stores as if there’s no pandemic out of control in our community and our state. And anyway, it’s so stupid that the government never bothered to partner with scientists and industry experts to set safety and reopening standards for golf, restaurants, etc. Instead we get this ad hoc shut down where I sacrifice the one thing I do outside of my house and my office (where I work by myself) and half the population says they won’t change their behavior to help stem the outbreak. Meanwhile, if you live a Republican-dominated county in NY or NM the sheriffs say they won’t be enforcing the mandates anyway which I guess means we’re living in an anarchy state during a pandemic. I’ll quit whining about golf and complaining about the government and let’s jump in to the transcript.

Q. Cody. If there is a constitution crisis, is there any chance of violence outbreak? Who would the military back since they all sworn an oath to uphold the constitution? I am letting my imaginations running wild. What if generals disagree on who is the legit president?

A. Yes there is a chance of more violence breaking out. (We are already living in violent time, no?) Don’t let your imaginations run wild, but do be cautious and prepared for the worst case scenario, including this time. If Trump doesn’t choose to leave, it’s going to be get confusing.

Q. Cody did you buy JMIA for the hedge funds or personal or both?

A. Both. It’s usually just the hedges and/or options that are mostly in the hedge fund. I did buy some BLNK puts in my personal account today though, for example.

Q. Any thoughts on JMIA?

A. Not much to add since yesterday’s analysis as not much has changed since then, at least: “Jumia is straight up since we sent out the Trade Alert about it a couple days ago. I don’t know why. The chart is now parabolic and I’d have a hard time buying any more than just the tiniest of nibbles for now. Maybe it will keep going straight up, but I’d venture a guess that we’ll see this stock below $20 again at some point in the coming weeks. If not, we’ll have to pay up a bit to scale into more. Let the pitches come as they may.”

Q. HI Cody-thoughts on TWTR?

A. Same ol, really. Long-term, it seems to me that it’s won as the de facto standard way for celebrities and companies to communicate with the public. Shorter-term, Jack needs to figure out how to grow and monetize better.

Q. How about thoughts on SPCE with the COVID launch delay, just hold tight?

A. Yea, it doesn’t matter. We need them to be safe.

Q. Cody, there were so many IPO’s that hit at the same time this year like SNOW, U, FROG, etc.. is there any one particular IPO that hit this year that you have your eye on should the opportunity present itself?

A. Maybe SNOW, but the good ones like it are so overpriced that it could be a while before I get interested.

Q. Any thoughts on DVAX with all the vaccine news and the stock not moving?

A. Yea, it’s probably getting to be time for me to move on from DVAX as a vaccine play. Seems they failed to win.

Q. Cody, any cannabis plays you’re interested in right now?

A. CGC as usual and I’ve flipped from bear to bull on VFF.

Q. Bull on VFF but not to the point you’re willing to add to your portfolio?

A. Yea, cannabis just isn’t revolutionary enough for me it seems.

Q. FVAC is now MP and seems to have taken off – do we just nibble here?

A. Yes, probably I guess maybe? I mean, as usual, if you don’t own enough, I’d suggest nibbling a little here and giving yourself time to add more later.

Q. Any thoughts on Corsair (CRSR)?

A. I’d never heard of it til just now. ” The company offers gamer and creator peripherals, including gaming keyboards, mice, headsets, and controllers, as well as capture cards, studio accessories, and others. It also provides gaming components and systems comprising power supply units, cooling solutions, computer cases, and DRAM modules, as well as prebuilt and custom-built gaming PCs.” Sounds like a low margin, highly competitive business to be in.

Q. Any concerns about various state, federal antitrust lawsuits against FB? Does it change long-term anything? Good time to add to FB position on weakness?

A. I’ve never seen the Republican Democrat Regime ever punish a company in a meaningful way for anti-trust stuff in my lifetime. I highly doubt FB will be the first. If you don’t own enough FB, maybe nibble some here. It’s just a hold for me right now.

Q. Cody, I know timing the market is not the way to go. But, there is a lot to be said for buying stocks the week of Thanksgiving. Do you ever take that into consideration when you are making buying decisions?

A. No.

Q. Cody. F2F, how do you think the market would play out in the coming months with 95% efficacy vaccines and the fall/winter virus wave converging?

A. Not sure what you mean. Did you see my prior answer about the market’s set up for the next two months?

Q. Can you please comment on last earning reports from JD and NVDA? Thank you!

A. JD was strong, consumer user base for them growing even faster than China’s consumer base overall and I think the trajectory looks promising for the business. NVDA saw strong growth in the important sectors and the ARM acquisition is my favorite acquisition at an incredibly low price by a company in a long-time.

Q. Hey Cody, (or is it spock?) Thinking about more revolutionary stocks….Energy Storage is going thru the roof with massive projects throughout the US. Tesla is in that game, but so is Samsung, LG Chem, and integrators of the products. Do you have any companies that you think are going to be interesting to invest into?

A. I’m working on the energy storage sector but don’t have any stocks for you yet. Scottie.

Q. Your thoughts on GOOG here? It has become a big position for me and I’m thinking to trim a bit at these levels.

A. Great quarter last quarter. Android, Youtube, Google Search still dominate. Stock’s not terribly cheap but not wildly expensive. I’d trim some if you are worried it’s too big and it sounds like you are since you asked the question. Q. Cody, after your last post suggesting we trim some longs, I would like to know your thoughts on how the markets might move the next couple months. A. Feet to fire guess for the markets for the next 40 or so trading days (two months): Markets stabilize and churn for November and then get choppy up and down with 1-2% daily moves in December and then in early January, if Trump is still acting like he ain’t leaving, the markets tank 10%ish. If, in January, Trump looks like he’ll leave on his own volition, the markets rally 5-10% out of relief.

Q. Hi Cody: What are your thoughts on UBER? is it a sell here? I’m new here so not sure if you still hold it. Thanks!

A. I don’t own UBER any more, but sometimes I regret that. It’s a great company, but I like everyone else, got worn out of some of my favorite names during The Coronavirus Crisis including UBER and DIS.

Q. any thoughts on LGVW, medical whole body imaging company as revolutionary play?

A. Not yet, but I’m digging in on that one.

Q. Cody: I want to scale more into BTC. What’s the strategy? Dollar cost averaging? So much info out there from analysts saying it will go to the moon and saying it will soon correct. What would Cody do?

A. As always, when I want to buy something, I would buy some now and give myself some time and patience to buy more in coming weeks.

Q. Cody – what would be long term potential of JMIA if all things you looked into the company work out?

A. I could see JMIA going up 10-fold or much more than even that from here over the next decade if they pull this off.

Have a great and safe weekend out there, everybody!