Is The Bubble Over?, Tesla FSD Improvements, HOOD v. RKLB, And Much More

Also, as previously discussed, we are now completely out of DallasNews (DALN).

Q. Would you categorize this current bull market as a part of the 2011-2020 bubble-blowing bull market, or would you categorize it as a separate new bull market due to the short-lived recession in March 2020 and the new paradigm of higher interest rates?

A. I love this question. I’ve thought a lot about this and I don’t consider this the same Bubble-Blowing Bull Market that I wrote so much about from 2010-2021 when I called the Blow-Off Top at the market top in late 2021 as the 0% interest rates/QE paradigm/low inflation regime ended and we entered a new phase for the economy and markets with higher rates, higher inflation and a post-Covid world. If The AI Revolution hadn’t accelerated and impacted the economy and especially the animal spirits in the markets like it has over the last 16 months, I think the stock markets and crypto markets and the economy would be struggling.

Q. Would you say we are in another blow-off top phase that you referred to in 2021 or are we not at that level of greedy optimism just yet?

A. I think it feels a bit Blow-Off-Top-Ish but I can’t say that my spider senses are going off like they were at the Blow-Off Top At The End of The Bubble-Blowing Bull Market in 2021.

Q. Looking for your recommendation on where to best invest $1000 weekly considering the current state of the market?

A. Not sure what you mean by “considering the current state of the market” but my answer to your question would be something like this in just about any market: Buy a little Tesla (TSLA), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), TransMedics (TMDX), Bitcoin and/or some of the other highest-rated names in our portfolio each month. Easy does it. Don’t be greedy. Don’t be scared. Be cool and build your wealth slowly but safely over many years.

Q. Seems like you were saying Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Apple (AAPL) could sit here for years a few months back but now poised to run because first innings of AI. Also seems like NVIDIA (NVDA) has no competition. Feet to fire (FTF), where are these in 5 years?

A. Correct. Meta and Apple for sure seem ready to benefit from AI. Amazon too, but that’s partly priced in here I think. Meta and Apple also have The VR/AR Revolution kickers with their Oculus and Visor Pro road maps ahead. Seems like Nvidia’s the only game in the AI town that matters. Feet-to-fire, in five years: META could be at $1200, AAPL at $350, Amazon could be at $250 and Nvidia could be at $939,928 per share. Just kidding. Nvidia could be a $2500.

Q. Can you please let us know how far you are in building positions on latest recommendations like TransMedics (TMDX), Adobe (ADBE), Crowdstrike (CRWD) and Autodesk (ADSK)? Thanks!

A. We’re about 2/3 of the way building up the TXDX position. ADBE is about 40% of the way built up. CRWD is about 1/2 built up. ADSK is about a full position.

Q. Are you sticking with your Intel (INTC) $35 Jan. 2025 calls?

A. We have some of the INTC $35 January 2025 still. We were buying those when the stock was in the $20s. Bryce will include a link to that Trade Alert in the transcript. By the way, we did just now get filled on some INTC common stock at $40.44 and we have another limit order a couple percent away from here too.

Q. How are you handling your Tesla (TSLA) and Intel (INTC) calls? Are they all longer dated other than the May $200 Tesla calls?

A. We’re mostly sitting tight on our calls. Bought a tiny bit of INTC common today when it hit our $40.44 limit. Would buy more TSLA common in the $150s if it gets there.

Q. I know you predicted a rough first half for Tesla (TSLA). Do you think we’re in buy territory here or do you think the market still needs a bigger dip?

A. Not sure. Maybe both? Perhaps nibble a little if you don’t own enough TSLA and leave room to buy more 10% lower and/or in a month.

Q. Feet to fire, how confident are you that Tesla (TSLA) will solve Full Self Driving (FSD)? How much did that change after seeing V12?

A. I am much more confident that Tesla will solve autonomous driving and sooner rather than later after having been driven around by Version 12. It really is so much better than the old human-programmed FSD versions that we’d been suffering though for the last five years that I’ve been driving a Tesla with Full Self Driving technology. V12 is so much better than Bryce has started borrowing my Tesla every chance he gets so that he can use the FSD. I just got a call during this chat from another friend who has had a Tesla for years and suddenly got the free FSD V12 trial for this month in his car and he couldn’t believe how good it is now. He’s probably going to end up getting the $199/month deal after the trial ends. I was worried that Level 5 autonomy wouldn’t happen for Tesla before V12. Now I’m extremely confident they will get there in the next two years or so.

Q. What are people driving??? Honda announced its March sales volume in the Chinese market as 60,441 units, a year-on-year decline of 50.8%; GAC Toyota’s March sales volume was 55,387 units, a year-on-year decrease of 31.9%.

A. Used cars? Those numbers make Tesla’s 8% Y/Y drop seem bullish haha.

Q. Which is the better risk/reward right here at these current levels Rocket Lab (RKLB) or Robinhood Markets (HOOD)? All the things going on with HOOD, are they setting up for huge numbers/metrics for next earnings in May?

A. There’s probably less risk with HOOD. We have about 1/2 as much exposure to RKLB as we do in HOOD right now but I am looking to nibble a little more RKLB while it’s below $4 here.

Q. How committed are you to adding to STMicroelectronics (STM) at this price?

A. We haven’t added to it yet. I still like it but with Tesla and other EV customers of theirs struggling to move units, there’s some downside near-term risk in STM. We’ll probably nibble a little more at some point around these or lower levels in coming weeks and will let you know if/when we do.

Q. How long will it take Disney (DIS) to prove the activists are not needed to right the ship?

A. I still don’t know what the activists wanted changed.

Q. Any thoughts on Iris Energy (IREN) – Australian bitcoin miner; is this a way to play bitcoin on the cheap?

A. I don’t understand the need for publicly-traded bitcoin miners. Seems like all they do is dilute shareholders to raise more money to buy equipment to mine bitcoin and use the public stock as an ATM for executives to sell their own shares. I’m betting against several of the bitcoin mining stocks using puts whenever I see them spike like crazy for a few days and am currently long some puts on several of the bitcoin miner stocks as noted last week. Since I mentioned that in the Trade Alert/chat last week, they each have gone down as follows: IREN -3%; Bitfarms (BITF) -7%; Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) -16%; Hut 8 (HUT) -20%; Terawulf (WULF) -18%. Moreover, the greed and cockiness from the bitcoin miner stock bulls is out of control on Twitter. I’d stick with bitcoin and not take the additional risks that come with buying a bitcoin miner which can lie, cheat, steal and/or just not execute.

Q. What do you think of Gigacloud (GCT)?

A. I think it looks very fishy.

Q. With regards to bitcoin hitting your forecast of 100k next year and possibly 1 million if it is adopted as reserve currency, do you see a potential liquidity issue if most holders are long term investors and just don’t want to sell until they have to?

A. Not really. The less that bitcoin is available to sell, the higher it will go and those who are trying to buy bitcoin at $1 million (if it were to actually get there) would be measuring the amount of bitcoin they are buying in Satoshis. represents one-hundred-millionths of one Bitcoin, which can also be expressed as 0.00000001 BTC. That means there are 100 million Satoshis, sometimes called “sats” for short, in one Bitcoin. Even with how much Bitcoin has increased in value over the years, a Satoshi is still worth a very small fraction of a cent. But if bitcoin were at $1 million a Satoshi would be worth 1 cent. So those buying, say, $1000 of bitcoin at $1 million would be buying 100,000 Satoshis.

Q. I guess that makes sense for bitcoin prices rising, as opposed to stock prices rising and being unable to sell fractional shares unless your broker allows it!

A. Yes, exactly. I suppose it’s not unlike someone on Robinhood putting $1,000 into a fractional share of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). We could call one-hundred-millionths of a Berkshire Hathaway stock price one Warren. LOL

I leave you all with a picture of my backyard from last night.