Triangulating Truth From News, Cody’s Top 8, Sister’s Sunglasses, and More

Here’s the transcript from this week’s Trading With Cody Live Q&A chat.

Q. Cody, today’s rally has completely evaporated. Do you think we should be looking for another leg down to (hopefully) make a bottom?

A. Market remains precarious but much of the downside has already been worked through. I wouldn’t be surprised if the markets bleed lower for a while, and I would be surprised if the next leg down is vicious and quick, though it wouldn’t really shock me either. I’d sell more of my puts and scale into more long exposure if we do get a big leg down here.

Q. Cody, you said “Market remains precarious but much of the downside has already been worked through. I wouldn’t be surprised if the markets bleed lower for a while.” For “a while?” I was going to ask how much that is, but I suspect there are too many variables and there is no answer.

A. Maybe a year or two? I don’t know. Too many variables. Haha.

Q. Cody, “Maybe a year or two? I don’t know. Too many variables. Haha.” A year or two to “bleed lower”? Seems like an awfully long time frame for that; what happened to Kurzweil? I was thinking maybe a month or two.

A. The stock markets have literally gone decades at a time doing a slow bleed. I was applying the Kurtzweil-Rate-Of-Change concept to that and reducing decades to years. Haha.

Q. Cody, you’re saying “The stock markets have literally gone decades at a time doing a slow bleed.” I guess it also depends on what you mean by a “slow bleed”…literally.

A. Well, I definitely don’t mean that the markets will literally slow bleed, because they might have animal spirits, but they aren’t animals.

Q. Cody, do you think it’s even possible for the market to form a bottom with Putin’s nuclear threat and Taiwan/China issue hanging over us?

A. Yes, but at what level is a different question. There’s a certain level in the markets where it would everything but outright destruction of the markets and our civilization is more than priced in. But it’s probably a lower level than here.

Q. Who do you “trust” for market/stock news? Is there anyone who you follow in terms of respecting their shared opinions/viewpoints in public?

A. I trust no news source outright. I read every day, the NYTimes, WSJ, NY Post, sometimes the Washington Post, sometimes I watch clips from RT (Russian Television), I read press releases from companies, I read earnings call transcripts, I have an interesting and diverse twitter feed as I follow random people who tweet interesting things from all perspectives on Wokeness and Trump and BIden and those who espouse passionate partisanship from “both” sides and others like me who strive to be anti-partisan, etc. Then we triangulate some truth.

Q. Does anyone know Cody’s top 5 positions?

A. Top 8 in the hedge fund right now are, in alphabetical order: GOOG, INTC, META, QCOM, RKLB, ROK, TSLA, UBER.

Q. Codu, why do you like ENVX?

A. It looks like they’ve done some real innovation in battery technology and if they can scale it up successfully, it could be applied to the following markets and others: wearables, earpieces, glasses, any other small form factor you can think of and then also lots of large form factors like EVs.

PS. Codu seems like a cool name for a Star Wars character by the way. Like, Mason Codu, a small shop keeper on planet Endor who dabbles with the Force to help protect the Ewoks hundreds of years before the Return Of The Jedi’s time.

Q. @Cody: Q. @Cody: A. The stock markets have literally gone decades at a time doing a slow bleed. ….I guess it also depends on what you mean by a “slow bleed”…literally A. Well, I definitely don’t mean that the markets will literally slow bleed, because they might have animal spirits, but they aren’t animals. . . . .Not bulls and bears?

A. Snakes, bulls, bears, spiders, (and Ewoks who play with shopkeepers) exist in the stock market spirit worlds, that’s for sure!

Q. Cody, regarding INTC, it seems like a great long-term idea but one without near term positive catalysts. In fact, continued loss of share in data center, PC just seems like an endless drip drip of distressing news. Have you bought any good private sources of analysis and intelligence on next gen device releases that are rumored to be more competitive, and can you share the results with us? Would be nice to know that sometime soon Intel‘s actually going to start releasing competitive parts again.

A. I’ve read a lot of reviews of the latest Intel vs AMD chips and Intel seems to win on most performance metrics but still lags on battery and heat efficiency. I have a new Surface Pro 3 with Intel chips and it’s very quiet and cool, for what it’s worth. Agreed, Intel could be a bummer without a catalyst for the next few months or quarters unless they can take marketshare.

Q. Cody, I’m surprised with the Great Space Revolution that not one of your top 7 right now are space related stocks.

A. If you count my investments in private space companies, SpaceX and Relativity Space would be in the Top 5 positions. RKLB is the best publicly-traded space company. There will be dozens of great Space Revolution Stocks to choose from in two or three years, I think.

Q. Hello Cody, do you think ARKKs buy in RKLB is a curse or a blessing?

A. Thanks for the heads up. Looks like she just started buying some RKLB today? Anyway, can’t it just be irrelevant if she’s buying it or not?

Q. Terran Orbital (LLAP) has halved nearly since it was last discussed. Did anything change fundamentally? I would assume its a better investment now than when it was much higher, but it hasn’t been brought up in some time now.

A. I bid on some LLAP this morning and it moved up as I got filled on about just 20% of my order so far. No rush, it’s a very risky stock and it’s not as good as RKLB, which is a much bigger position for me than this one.

Q. Cody, any updated thoughts on SPCE, BKSY, and RDW at this time? I still own some of each.

A. They’ve been off my screens, but now that the markets are tanking everything to new lows, I should take another look at them. I will let you all know if I buy any of them back.

Q. Any catalyst for META?

A. It’s cheap, that’s for sure. If they take any market share from Tik Tok, that would amaze everybody, because it IS unlikely. That said, what if Apple and/or Google and/or some Western nation governments decide to ban Tik Tok (they should! I have never let anyone in my family download or sign into Tik Tok because of the Chinese government’s ownership in it). Someday, maybe in two years, Meta will roll out a real small and usable VR/AR headset and that would also be a catalyst. For now….zzzzzz.

Q. Any news on Immersed?

A. No, but I’ve been meaning to reach out to the CEO and will do so soon.

Q. Hi Cody. I really liked your numbering system on your stocks as a quick guide to where your thinking is at. Could you please do another one soon? It is especially helpful when you include names like LLAP. I think it is most valuable to know which stocks you are pinning lower numbers on. Thanks for your expertise.

A. Yes, now’s a great time to do a Where’s I’d Buy More spreadsheet because many names in our portfolio are finally getting compelling valuation-wise!

Thanks all, that’s a wrap!

I leave you with a shot of Amaris in her sister’s sunglasses (that’d be a great name for a jam band, no?). May all us be so cool as Amaris just naturally is.