Latest Positions: A No BS Market PLUS Semis And Other Names

This remains the “No BS Market” as any whiff of bullsh*t gets sold. Promises of future growth are starting to be considered folly. That’s part of the process of bottoming. We need some of the most speculative and especially some of the fraudulent companies that came public in the last year or two to go outright bankrupt. But we’re getting closer. Be careful, but don’t be scared. I’m nibbling some W and some GOOG today in both my personal account and in the hedge fund. In the hedge fund, I’m also covering partial positions of yet more shorts today in the today, opening up a little more net long exposure.

Here is a Part 3 of 3 of the list my latest personal portfolio positions and most of the hedge fund positions with updated commentary and ratings for each position.

The ratings for each stock go from 1 to 10, 1 being “Get out of this position now!” and 10 being “Sell the farm, I’ve found a perfect investment.” The positions that are bolded are those that I consider to be “core” holdings and am unlikely to ever sell out of them entirely.

• The Semiconductor Revolution
  • QCOM Qualcomm (7+) – Qualcomm has been trading in tandem with the broader semiconductor indices lately and I think that might be about to change. Qualcomm’s cyclical growth from 5G is probably in about the 3rd inning and I expect it to be a bit more insulated from a broader slow down in chip demand that might be percolating as the economy might just be receding. I’d be a buyer of QCOM near $120 or so and I’m a holder of it right now.
  • NVDA Nvidia (7) – As I’ve noted before many time: “NVDA is never cheap. I bought Nvidia at [a split-adjusted] $7 per share and it was not cheap then on a fundamental basis. You had to be looking out two to three years even then to have the guts to buy it.” Nvda has come down quite a bit from its high, down about 35% but that pails in comparison to most other former highflying stocks, most of which are down 60-70% or more. I’d be a buyer of NVDA near $170 where it’s forward P/E would be below 25.
  • TSM Taiwan Semiconductor (7-) – In the prior Latest Positions, I wrote: “Everybody needs TSM to make more chips. I mean, car companies, stereo companies, TV companies, computer companies, smartphone companies, tractor companies, refrigerator companies, tool companies, etc. I mean everybody. And that’s a great position to be in, especially if your competitors are going to continue to struggle to catch up with your technological advantage and experience.” Intel, has now gotten fully into the chip making business and that’s going to eventually have an impact on TSM’s market share, but that’s still at least, say, two years out. Growing 20% per year and trading at a 15 P/E TSM is cheaper than other semiconductors mainly because it is based in Taiwan and there’s an existential threat of China hanging over it all the time. I’d be a buyer of TSM near $80.
  • INTC Intel (8+) – I like Intel here for all the reasons I keep explaining — it’s cheap trading at 12x earnings. It has a dividend of about 3%. It has a new business line of making chips for other companies that could be a trillion dollar kicker in five years. I’d make Intel a very large position near $40. It’s already one of my largest positions.
• Other Names
  • UBER  Uber (7+) – I like Uber for the long-term, but it’s just now about to turn profitable this year perhaps and the markets hate unprofitable companies. 20% plus topline growth for Uber ain’t too shabby considering its already doing $30 billionish a year. Looking out three years from now, UBER could earn $2 to $3 per share and the stock could be double or triple if it works out. I’m a buyer of more UBER near $25, as I’ve already bought some here near $30.
  • PYPL Paypal (8) – Paypal is yet another former highflyer that is down 70% from its recent highs. I snuck in and started buying some after its recent crash and it’s done mostly nothing but gone down further since then. I’ve been slowly scaling into more PYPL below $90 here and would make it a very large position near $70.
  • PRVB (7) – Believe it or not, I think biotech could be a leader for the markets after they finally find a bottom and start a new cycle higher. Both of our biotech names are smaller cap speculative names and they are small positions that I’m holding for now. I am actively working on some new biotech names that could be big over the next five years.
  • INFI (7) – Believe it or not, I think biotech could be a leader for the markets after they finally find a bottom and start a new cycle higher. Both of our biotech names are smaller cap speculative names and they are small positions that I’m holding for now. I am actively working on some new biotech names that could be big over the next five years.
  • ORGN Origin Materials (7) – The company just signed a deal to provide some packaging for luxury brands from LVMH and that’s a good validation of the company’s potential. Still need to consider this one a Venture Capital-type investment and give it some room while this market is hating on unprofitable start ups like this. I’d be a buyer closer to $5.
  • KD Kyndryl (7+) – I call this stock Kevin Durant and it’s been playing like an old dude on a wannabe super team. I thought the Brooklyn Nets might have a chance to rally during these playoffs but they have failed to find any oomph and their chart looks like KD’s. I like KD for being a completely different kind of stock for our portfolio — a recent spinoff from IBM with tens of billions in revenue, but it’s been ugly so far. I want to hear a couple more quarterly reports to see if this is going to have a chance for working out for us.
  • IONQ Ioniq (7-) – Startup with no revenues, going to be hard to keep its valuation here, but quantum computing is a great growth potential so I hold a small position in this one. I’d buy more near $6.
  • W Wayfair (8) – Watching my new favorite show, Freddie Dodge’s Gold Mine Rescue when my wife and daughter got home last night from a party they went to. They sat down and surprisingly found the show to be entertaining too. But during one of the commercials, my daughter says to me, “You know why people do commercials? Because they need to sell things that are’t selling well. (I think she’s heard me talk about how Tesla doesn’t need to advertise because their product is so good.) And then two Wayfair commercials in a row came on. I wonder if Wayfair’s struggling near-term, but I like the company’s infrastructure of delivering giant furniture. I bought some today, making it a medium-sized position, as a matter of fact, consider this a Trade Alert.
  • SHOP Shopify (6+) – Another name that never bounces since we bought it after it crashed the first time. This is a small position for me and I’m sick of looking at it so I might just blow out of it if it ever rallies again.