Latest Positions: Bitcoin/Crypto, Space, Robin Hood, Disney, Rockwell, TenCent, More

Here is Part 4 of the list of my latest personal portfolio positions and most of the hedge fund positions with updated commentary and ratings for each position.

The ratings for each stock go from 1 to 10, 1 being “Get out of this position now!” and 10 being “Sell the farm, I’ve found a perfect investment.” The positions that are bolded are those that I consider to be “core” holdings and am unlikely to ever sell out of them entirely.

• The Space Revolution
  • SpaceX (9) — SpaceX just doesn’t slow down. The company which is already the only company on the planet that can send astronauts to the International Space Station is hard at work developing the Starship which will Revolutionize the space industry in ways that no entity has done since, well, when SpaceX Revolutionized the space industry with their Falcon ships. The first launch of Falcon 9 took place on June 4, 2010. In 2012, Falcon 9 launched its first commercial resupply mission to the International Space Station (ISS). In 2020, Falcon 9 became the first commercial rocket to launch humans to orbit. Starship is taller than the Statue Of Liberty and about half the size of the Eiffel Tower. Let’s think about that for a moment. When it was inaugurated for the Paris World’s Fair on March 31, 1889, the Eiffel Tower, originally called “The 300-meter Tower,” had a total height of 312 meters, making it the tallest tower in the world. It proudly held that title until 1931. Let’s think about this for a moment. Here we are just 93 years later, and mankind is sending space ships half the size of what was the tallest building on the planet less than a century ago, up to space and soon into orbit and soon to Mars. It took millions of years of mankind to build a structure that was 300 meters tall. It took less than 93 years for mankind to send a structure that is 150 meters tall INTO SPACE! This amazing acceleration of innovation is a prime example of what I am talking about when I talk about The Kurtzweil Acceleration Of The Rate Of Change.
  • RKLB Rocket Lab (7+) — Bryce and I met with Rocket Lab CEO, Peter Beck, over Zoom yesterday and came away very impressed. We spent about 40 minutes talking to him about the space industry and his company. He told us among other things that one of the reasons Rocket Lab raised money was so that it can eventually start sifting through the many space start ups out there that are struggling to survive. When we asked him about the stock price, he basically just told us that all he and Rocket Lab can do is to execute and that he is supremely confident in their ability to continue to do so. He said he agrees that it’s strange how launch itself isn’t a higher margin business but that their ability to do launches means that they will eventually create services and business plans around new space applications in a few years. Another thing we thought was impressive and smart was how Rocket Lab tries to let their customers pay for the development of new satellites and services that are strategically important to Rocket Lab’s long-term road map. I expect that if we see some more cool space/lunar/NASA landings that Rocket Lab could get hot again. If/when Starlink ever files to go public that would probably really get this stock juiced. In the meantime, I plan to buy more RKLB below $4 anytime we get the chance and to mostly sit tight on the existing position.
  • LUNR Intuitive Machines (7-) — Well, we darn near traded this stock perfectly around its recent lunar landing, having bought it in the $2s and trimmed it on down as it ran to $12 over just a few week’s period. The company has more than $800 million in backlog, mostly from NASA, and the stock is trading at about a $500 million market cap and I’m going to keep a small position on the sheets for now.
  • HOOD Robinhood Markets (7) — We met with Robin Hood when we were in NYC and went on a stroll through Central Park with some of their team. My single favorite thing about Robin Hood is that they just seem to try to provide a great product and to not nickel-and-dime their customers the way that Wall Street brokerage firms typically do. They also do a good job of constantly trying to innovate and provide new products and services that they think retail investors and traders would want. The crypto boom right now is probably going to be very good for Robin Hood’s trading revenue in the coming quarter or two. The stock has been on fire rallying from $8 to over $17 in the last few months and it could use a bit of a rest here. We’ve trimmed it down a bit in the hedge fund as it got to be a bit too large but, again, mostly sitting tight here. I’d trim more near $20 and I’d consider buying a little back near $13 or $14.
  • SEDG Solaredge (6) — I’m sick of Solar Edge but I want to keep a little bit of solar in the portfolio so we have a tiny position in this name. Solar is the future of energy but Tesla is the best solar company.
  • DIS Disney (6+) — Disney’s got the best IP on the planet, but like Netflix, there’s a threat that Generative AI video creation will bring on a whole new level of competition for these content creators. We snuck in and bought Disney when it was at multi-year lows and was one of the most hated stocks in the market. Disney is indeed doing as I hoped when I wrote that: “I expect that Disney will end up spinning off/selling some of these assets in coming months and years and that the company won’t be letting those assets go cheaply. When we made our financial model for Disney using our proprietary WiNR Ratio algorithm, we find that Disney is trading for about 5 or 6 times its likely profits for 2028 even if it doesn’t spin off/sell any assets over the next four years. We expect that the stock would probably be trading at about 15x those profits in 2028 which would put the stock at more than $250 per share which would be a more than 30% annualized gain.” It won’t come as a shock to any of you that we trimmed a little Disney since it rallied from the low $80s where we bought it to above $110 now. We’re now mostly sitting tight and we’d probably buy a little back if it got close to $90.
  • NET Cloudflare (7) – Cloudflare reported a solid quarter with small beats across the board and the stock immediately jumped over 30%, but quickly gave back about 10% of that move and now has settled in around $100/share. Cloudflare is still really expensive (trading around 20x sales) but it is expected to grow about 28% per year for the next two years. Cloudflare is in the right place at the right time with the AI Revolution with its edge servers, combined with its comprehensive cybersecurity and data management platforms. Cloudflare is partnered with Meta and will do a lot of the inferencing for Meta’s LLaMA model, which is far and above the most widely used open-source LLM on the market. Additionally, it is working with SpaceX’s Starlink to improve the speed and reliability of its internet.  We are building out the entire AI tech stack and Cloudflare is uniquely positioned (it’s only real competition is Akamai AKAM) to do what it does. If the company continues to grow at this rate or even accelerate, it will be a great forever position for us. However, any weakness in the growth rate and this stock could collapse, like we have seen with several other cloud names recently like Snowflake SNOW, Palo Alto Networks PANW, etc.
  • TCEHY Tencent (7+) – Not much has changed with Tencent since we wrote about it in January. However, a lot of news has come about the deteriorating Chinese economy and the various efforts from its communist government to try to fix things since the start of the year. Apple, Tesla, Starbucks, and BYD are all telling us there is a big slowdown in China. The CCP has now essentially banned short selling in the Chinese stock market and has threatened to arrest anyone who does it. This recent action from the CCP is just more evidence of how corrupt and evil and manipulative communist regimes are. The CCP likes to pretend that it is encouraging a free market until the free market doesn’t go in the direction it likes. However, one of the main reasons we are in Tencent is because of the extreme negative sentiment toward Chinese stocks and most if not all of the negative economic news is likely close to being priced in at these levels. And Tencent remains the biggest and baddest tech giant in China and it has a lot real, valuable, unique products and the stock is trading at a really attractive multiple, so we want to stick with this one.
  • ROK Rockwell Automation (6+) – Rockwell’s report was not the greatest and the company is essentially predicting that 2024 will be a year of no growth. After several amazing years where the company was growing the topline 15% annualized, that growth is starting to slow down in tandem with the slow down in the domestic factory buildout. All of those companies that are planning on bringing factories back to the US are still doing so and we think they will continue to do so for the next several decades, but the rapid rise in interest rates last year probably caused some of those companies to delay those re-domestication plans temporarily. As with most industrials, Rockwell’s business is cyclical and it is common to expect some periodic flattening or even downturn in sales for a year or 18 months. However, Rockwell is still as Revolutionary as ever and it is the only pure-play on automation and re-domestication of manufacturing in the US. Additionally, Rockwell could be a major player in the AI Revolution as it is already at the cutting edge of machine learning and automation. Analysts are expecting essentially no growth for the next two years and if Rockwell can start to integrate AI into its products, that could obviously juice the sales again and the company would handily beat those low estimates for growth.
  • BTC Bitcoin (7-) — The Crypto Bubble Is Back (and you know it’s gonna be whack!). Look, I like the bitcoin and showed you dear subscribers how to buy it back in 2013 when it was almost impossible to buy it. It’s now as easy as buying a bitcoin ETF in your retirement account. All fiat currency roads lead to bitcoin and its limited supply. Even gold could end up having way more supply in twenty or thirty years when SpaceX or others are mining asteroids with robots. You won’t find bitcoins on asteroids. We trimmed a little bitcoin in the hedge fund when it hit new all time highs earlier this week and are now mostly sitting tight once again. I’m sorry to say that I think the crypto market is about to have another broad wipe out at some point in the next few months and that most cryptos are again ready to drop 90% or more the next year or two. Bitcoin will probably get hit in that scenario too and I’d probably look to buy some back near $50,000.