Latest Positions Doo Wop, Analysis and Ratings

doo-wop: noun – a style of pop music marked by the use of close harmony vocals using nonsense phrases, originating in the US in the 1950s.

Ever notice how some analysis is sort of like doo wop, wherein the analyst tries to harmonize with other analysts and all of them are using nonsense phrases? Just sayin’.

Here is a list of my latest positions with updated commentary and ratings for each position. I added a spot for my two cryptocurrency holdings in there again too.

As usual, the Revolution Investment Ratings for each stock collectively reflect my overall feeling about the market. That is, the ratings are slightly higher than they were six weeks ago when the markets were about to fall a bunch and I was rather bearish and cautious. I’m still far from being outright bullish about stocks as I was from 2010-2016 or so, but I’m still net long.

I’ve broken the list into Longs and Shorts. And from there, I’ve broken down each list into refined categories in order from the largest positions within each category to the smallest. I also give each stock a current rating from 1 to 10, 1 being “Get out of this position now!” and 10 being “Sell the farm, I’ve found a perfect investment.”
Longs –

• Forever assets and other permanent holdings –
  • Media and other private investment/business holdings (9+ because betting on yourself and running a business is always a best bet)
  • Real estate, including land and the ranch I live on in NM (8)
  • Physical gold bullion & coins (8)
• Primary stock exposure portfolio
  • AAPL Apple (7) – Apple is at new all-time highs, one of the few megacap stocks that are right now. Remember all the worries about peak iPhone? We’ve been hearing that same line since the iPhone launched more than ten years ago. That said, Apple’s lack of innovating is indeed worrying me. I can’t tell you how much I hate my new Macbook Pro. It’s so bad that I really do prefer to use the six year-old one that it replaced. Also, I wish Apple would just issue a $100 billion dividend and pay out 5% annually rather than buying back all these shares they’re buying all the time to reduce their float. Regardless, as I’ve been saying since the dawn of The App Revolution ten years ago, Apple’s services business is extremely high margin and fast growing and a multi-billion dollar business already.
  • AMZN Amazon (8) – I’ve been thinking a lot lately about all ways that Amazon is a platform and is creating new platforms for companies and people to use. Amazon Web Services, for example, and all the millions of apps, sites, streaming technologies and other things that are built on top of it. And I’ve been pointing out for years now that Amazon is eventually going to start offering enterprise package delivery services after they perfect their own logistics complete with fleets of airplanes, drones and drivers. I’ve long predicted that Amazon could become the first trillion dollar market company and I still think that’s true, though I doubt it will be this year and more likely in a few more years.
  • FB Facebook (7) – It seems that Facebook has weathered what might be the worst of the privacy/data crisis it brought upon itself. The EU and the US governments and other governments around the world have created new regulations for social media companies. That means there will be few if any new social media type networks and apps that can afford to comply with those new regulations. Facebook (and Twitter) is now free to roll up or kill any and all remaining competitors. Counter to everyone’s logic, I’m actually raising my rating on Facebook back up to a 7 in large part because of the increased regulatory environment.
  • GOOG/GOOGL Google (7) – Google’s stock been struggling a bit, to the point where it just ceded that #3 most valuable company title back to Microsoft, which Google had first passed in market cap size six years ago. Android, search, Android, ads, Android, driverless, Android, iOT, Android, AI and Android are good reasons to hold onto this stock though. Did I mention the importance of Android as a platform for wearables, iOT, AI, and other technologies of the future? Read The Best Way to Invest in the Wearables Revolution for more on that.
  • NVDA Nvidia (6) – Nvidia remains such a darling, remains overbought, overvalued and overloved. Such is the lot of a company that’s positioned to drive the AI, Driverless car, Highest-end servers, virtual reality and other major Revolutions of the next five to ten years. We bought this stock when it was around $30 two years ago and I’ve trimmed it a few times over the last couple years, but I’m holding my remaining shares steady for now.
  • AXGN Axogen (6) – I’m quite frankly awed by this company’s execution and even more so by the stock’s performance since we bought it. Axogen’s cutting edge Revolutionary nerve repair solution are gaining traction and new applications. The stock, at this valuation, has priced in a lot more growth ahead. As I’ve said since the first time I bought it, it’s possible the company gets acquired by a bigger player in the medical equipment/science field, and that’s probably helping the valuation be propped up here. I’ve trimmed some near these levels with the stock up 10-fold from where we bought it but hold my remaining shares steady.
  • SEDG SolarEdge (7) – I wouldn’t shy away from buying Solar Edge at $55, but you’ve got to remember, I mean, I bought a bunch of this stock when it was at $14. And I think I even did a few nibbles even below $14 when it fell a little bit after we initially bought it. Now it ran all the way to $70. I trimmed a little bit. Anyway, for me personally, I’ve got other stocks I’ll probably buy before Solar Edge personally. But, yeah, I think it’s probably a decent trade, a good long term investment here at $55. I do think Solar Edge, the digital technology that they use versus analog that most existing solar panels use provides a lot more upside, potentially.
  • SNE Sony (8) – I get bored with Sony sometimes since we bought it about four years ago when it was in the mid-teens. Now with it close to $50 per share, where it’s been for months now, I’m starting to get bored. But then I went and looked at when the annualized returns on our Sony stock has been and I see that at nearly 30% annualized, I remind myself the importance of sitting and not being greedy or anxious to make moves just because the stock stalls sometimes. I do think Sony is headed to triple digits in the next year or two.
  • FSLR First Solar (7) – I own two solar stocks and I don’t think either one depends on more or less subsidies from Republican Democrat regimes and other developed economy regimes around the world in the EU and their laws forcing solar demand. Such subsidies and forced demand and other government protections around the world certainly boost near term results and provide welfare for shareholders like you and I. But the grand scheme of things, I would prefer there be no subsidies. I can’t imagine that a bunch more states could possibly follow in California’s footsteps of legislating that all new homes have solar panels. California is per capita very wealthy compared to say Arizona or New Mexico. And obviously forget per capita — just gross economy, California’s what like the 5th largest in the world or something. Anyway, as I often say, First Solar’s the best of class in solar.
  • TWTR Twitter (7) – Twitter’s had an amazing run here from the low teens where we bought it to the mid $30s. When I bought it, I praised how the platform has become the de facto standard outlet for celebrities, news organizations and large organizations. Nowadays, teens are back embracing it and using it to have public back and forths. Here’s a funny example of such, as I bantered with a 14-year old nephew of mine on Twitter. If IF if revenue growth can get above 20% or so for the next couple years, the stock could get to $50. Longer-term, I want to own this de facto standard platform.
  • INTC Intel (8) – Intel, like Microsoft, lost its monopoly status years ago when The PC Revolution gave way to The Smartphone Revolution. But like the aforementioned Microsoft stock having a big run in the last three years as its cloud business has caught fire, so too do I expect Intel’s stock to continue the run its had since we bought it a few months ago in the mid $30s. Driverless, IoT, servers, cloud and other Intel initiatives could really take off if the company delivers on its vision.
  • UA Under Armour (7) – Whoohoo, what a run UA is on, as the stock has nearly doubled since we bought it a few months ago at what has turned to be just a couple percent above the lows it put in. UA revenue growth is expected to be just mid single digits this year and next and the company will have to deliver higher growth than that if the stock is to continue its run.
  • Palo Alto Networks (8) –Analysts expect this best-of-breed network cyber security company’s revenue growth to slow from 25% in 2018 to 20% in 2019. I think those analysts will have to raise their estimates as spending from corporations on network cyber security is, like, through the roof, man.
  • VZ Verizon (9) – If Verizon can stay focused on 5G and not overspend billions of dollars trying to become a content company, there’s a good chance this stock can run to $100 or $150 in the next three to five years. The 5% dividend is a good reason to hold it anyway.
  • TST The Street (7) – TST is kicking off nice cash now and that cash flow trend appears to be trending nicely. Now if the company can just get revenue growth trending higher, the stock will keep running. Steady as she goes for now.
  • CALX Calix (7) – Calix is a binary bet — the stock can go up 10-fold if they win traction at a reasonable price at Verizon and the other major carriers. If we don’t see some wins translating to real revenue growth in the next couple quarters, I’ll probably move on from this name.
  • WDC Western Digital (8) – Will storage prices run the way DRAM price have recently? Maybe not quite as strongly, but I do expect pricing for WDC to remain strong in coming quarters and that the stock could easily double if that’s the case.

• Primary short portfolio
  • S&P 500 SPY ETF (6) – A couple weeks ago I mentioned that I didn’t think puts we’re going to be a great bet anymore, and that’s been the case. I’d locked in some gains when we had them but most of my remaining put hedges, are likely to expire worthless or already have. That’s okay, they were just smallish hedges. I might add some more soon, but am sitting tight for now.
  • DJIA DIA ETF (6) – See SPY write up above.
  • Nasdaq 100 QQQ ETF (6) – See SPY write up above.
  • P Pandora (8) – Pandora’s had a bounce as Wall Street analysts are drinking the kool-aid that the company is pouring. I’m not. I’m holding this short steady as I continue to think Pandora can’t sustain its business against the likes of Amazon, Google, Spotify, Apple, YouTube and other music streaming services.
  • IWM Small cap ETF (6) – See SPY write up above.
  • Biotech ETF IBB (7) – I’m planning to add to my Biotech IBB short sometime soon.
  • EWY SouthKorean ETF (6) – South Korea’s stock market has been volatile recently and I’m likely to finally just cut my losses on this hedge too.
• Cryptocurrencies/tokens
  • Bitcoin (5) – I’ve owned bitcoin for years and have sold most of my bitcoins but still hold some. I think there’s more near-term crash ahead for bitcoin and most any cryptocurrency but that bitcoin could be a survivor/thriver long-term.
  • Stellar Lumens (6) – I just started buying Stellar Lumens recently and I’m likely to nibble a few more soon even though I think there’s more near-term crash ahead for Stellar Lumens and most any cryptocurrency but that bitcoin could be a survivor/thriver long-term.

Remember: I wouldn’t rush into a full position all at once in any of these stocks or any other position you’ll ever buy. Patience and allowing the market and time to work to your advantage by buying in tranches is key. Maybe 1/3 or 1/5 of whatever you  might consider to be a “full position” in any particular stock. And I wouldn’t ever have more than 5-15% of your portfolio in any one stock position at any given time. The younger you are and/or the higher the trajectory of your career income, the more concentrated and risk-taking you can be with weighting in your portfolio. But spread your purchases and your risk out over time and over a several positions no matter your age or risk-averse level.

Scaling into a position using an approach of buying 1/3 or 1/5 tranches over time is how I build my personal portfolio positions, but there’s no scientific way to go about investing and trading. Sometimes you have to pay up for the latest tranche but I try to be patient and wait for a temporary sell-off to add to the existing position.

** NOTE FOR NEW SUBSCRIBERS:

If you’re new to TradingWithCody or if you’ve been a subscriber for a while but haven’t acted on much of my strategies yet and/or if you haven’t been in the markets, but you’re sick of getting 0% on your CDs, Treasuries, savings, checking, etc while the markets have been continually hitting all-time highs this year, what should you do now?

Before you ever make any trade, step back and catch your breath before moving any money anywhere. Rank your positions and your whole portfolio and make sure you’re not about to make any emotional moves with your money.

If you haven’t yet read “Everything You Need to Know About Investing” then spend a couple hours doing so, please. It’s a quick read but chock-full of important ideas, concepts and strategies that amateurs and pros alike should understand.

Then, take a look at my own personal portfolio’s Latest Positions and slowly start to scale into some of the ones you like best and/or the ones I have rated highest right now. I’d look to start scaling into a few of the many stocks in the Latest Positions that are at all-time highs along with a couple that we’ve recently featured in our Trade Alerts that I’ve personally been scaling into.

You can find an archive of Trade Alerts here.