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Latest Positions: Meta, Apple, Google, Amazon

Cody Willard

Cody Willard

— 3 min read

Markets got ugly this morning and as planned, I nibbled a little of two of our names that hit new 52-week lows today, PYPL and RKLB. I’m still just in nibbling mode, not buying outright full-sized tranches. We have to let the markets throw the pitches they’re going to throw and we respond accordingly. We can’t control the markets or the prices they give us, of course. But we can navigate the course as it comes.

Here is a Part 2 of the list my latest personal portfolio positions and most of the hedge fund positions with updated commentary and ratings for each position.

The ratings for each stock go from 1 to 10, 1 being “Get out of this position now!” and 10 being “Sell the farm, I’ve found a perfect investment.” The positions that are bolded are those that I consider to be “core” holdings and am unlikely to ever sell out of them entirely.

Longs –

  • The Social/VR/AR Revolution –
    • FB Meta (8) – It’s pretty simple with Facebook…er Meta’s set up here: The stock is trading at about a 13 P/E, making it one of the cheapest stocks on the planet right now. It’s even cheaper when you consider that they have about $40 billion or about $16 per share of net cash. It’s even cheaper when you realize that even as Meta’s topline growth rate has slowed from its blazing years past, that it’s still possible to grow 5-10% per year…without assuming any success from Oculus in The Metaverse and VR Revolutions. I’ve made FB a large position again and likely hold it for another year or two as we see if Oculus and the platform its built can maintain its leadership position and maybe end up with some mainstream traction.
    • TWTR Twitter (6) – I sold TWTR out of the hedge fund and expect that Elon will end up buying the shares I’ve owned in my personal account from me somewhere about 10-20% above Twitter’s current quote.
    • SNAP Snap (6) – I sold Snap out of the hedge fund back in early February and I only hold a small position in my personal account because we bought it at about $7 per share originally Snap’s got a Tik Tok problem on top of its Apple security tracking problem and it could be a tough road for them to figure out how to get the business back turned around from here.
  • The Trillion Dollar Club –
    • AAPL Apple (7+) – In the prior Latest Positions write up when Apple was at $175, I wrote: “I could see this stock trade back at 15-20x next year’s earnings, which would mean it could hit $100-120ish levels. Wow, that sounds bearish as I type it and maybe it won’t decline quite that bad, but the upside potential from here seems constrained. I hold AAPL for 18 years now in my personal account, but I don’t own it in the hedge fund right now.” Well the stock did get down to the $120ish level and I’m likely to start adding some AAPL back into the hedge fund near these levels and on down near $120.
    • GOOG/GOOGL Google  (7) –Google’s trading at about a 18 P/E and is growing faster than any other megacap tech stock this year and probably next year too, with a 15% topline. Google’s YouTube is battling the same Tik Tok problem that every other social network has, but Google’s primary ads business is still booming and Android is still the de facto platform for the world. I’m a strong buyer of Google for the hedge fund if it hits another 52-week low.
    • AMZN Amazon (7-) – Amazon’s retail business is not in a good spot as Wal-Mart and every other retailer have run into supply chain, inflation and maybe even some demand problems. Amazon’s got a 30+ P/E ratio here, but if you drill down into the numbers and make some probably very conservative estimates for growth and profit margins, the stock is probably trading at about 17x profits three years out and 13x profits five years out. I’d be a strong buyer of Amazon in the $80s and below if it gets there.

Part 3 coming tomorrow.

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