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Latest Positions Part 5: The Remaining Longs, Shorts, Crypto (plus TSLA earnings)

Cody Willard

Cody Willard

— 5 min read

Here is a Part 5 of 5 of the list my latest personal portfolio positions and most of the hedge fund positions with updated commentary and ratings for each position. Let’s do this week’s Live Q&A Chat today at 1pm ET Friday. Come directly to the TWC Chat Room or just email us your question to support@tradingwithcody.com (video chat will return next  week).

After hours today, Tesla delivered another strong quarter, including earnings. Now all the buzz will be about it maybe being soon included into the S&P 500. That’s nice and all, but in the end, I don’t think you want to try to game what the stock will do as that does or doesn’t happen in the next few weeks. There are other factors that will matter more to the stock than just the S&P 500 technicality. It’s still my largest position, but there’s nothing wrong with catching our breath here. Rock on.

Longs –

    • SPLK Splunk (6+) – SPLK has doubled since the last time I did a Latest Positions when I wrote: “It sure is a lot cheaper now at $100 than it was at $150” even though not much has changed for the company’s long-term prospects. Then again, Work-From-Home is a trend that accelerates much of Splunk’s business as companies look to spend ever more figuring out how to monetize their data. With a $33 billion market cap, the stock is trading at 10x next year’s sales estimates and 200x next year’s earnings estimates when Splunk should really turn sustainably profitable for the first time. Growing 25% topline next year makes this still expensive here. I’m sitting mostly tight with this one too right now.
    • AMD (6+) – I’f I’d written about AMD yesterday, I probably would have had it rated at a 7 instead of a 6+. But the stock popped nearly 10% today to new all-time highs on news that the company is releasing chips that combine the GPU with the CPU. That’s cool and probably going to big another big seller for AMD. I’m holding AMD steady for now after trimming a little bit into today’s pop.
    • ROKU (6+) – Shocker, I know — here’s a stock that’s done very well for us since we bought and it’s also a stock that I think looks extended and a little bit overvalued here. Relative to other stocks, this company trading at 9x next year’s sales estimates isn’t too outrageous, but I’m not in any mood to chase this name up here right now. On the other hand, the fact that Roku can sort of become a bundler of the unbundled streaming networks makes it a good long-term Revolution Investment holding.
    • QCOM (8) – On paper, the consensus for next year’s revenue growth to be well into the double digits but I’m not sure Wall Street’s believing that number quite yet. But with The 5G Revolution rolling full-steam ahead, that kind of growth could be possible and then some. Trading at less just 15x next year’s earnings estimates, I like QCOM here quite a bit here for the near-term and the long-term.

Shorts –

  • Primary short portfolio
    • QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF (7) – Just like with my longs, I’ve reduced my short hedges over the last few weeks but I’ll continue to hold some short hedges and puts.
    • SMH Semiconductor ETF (7) – Just like with my longs, I’ve reduced my short hedges over the last few weeks but I’ll continue to hold some short hedges and puts.
    • IWM Small Cap ETF (7) – Just like with my longs, I’ve reduced my short hedges over the last few weeks but I’ll continue to hold some short hedges and puts.
    • SPY Small Cap ETF (7) – Just like with my longs, I’ve reduced my short hedges over the last few weeks but I’ll continue to hold some short hedges and puts.
    • EWU and EWUS British ETFs (7) – I put a little more of each of these short hedges back on, but they are still small short hedges.
    • Tiny short hedges, rated about a (7) – in ENPH, PLUG, WKHS, CVNA, GM and others. We’ve had some huge homeruns in our small shorts this year. I might cover these at any time and I’m not expecting to make much money on these shorts. They’re just hedges for the hedge fund and I’m not sure any of these are no-brainer shorts. Please don’t just go around blindly shorting these for your personal portfolio.

Cryptocurrencies/tokens –

    • Bitcoin (7) – Bitcoin’s looking like it could break out in the next few weeks, both from a fundamental perspective (US and other developed countries’ governments are printing money) and from a technical analysis perspective (it’s one of the only assets that hasn’t gone parabolic but has built a nice base here).
    • Stellar Lumens (6) – I think it’s best not to group all cryptos together and that over time, each will trade on its merits and perceived/accepted values.
    • Ethereum (6) – I think it’s best not to group all cryptos together and that over time, each will trade on its merits and perceived/accepted values.
    • Ripple (6) – I think it’s best not to group all cryptos together and that over time, each will trade on its merits and perceived/accepted values.

Disclosure: At the time of publication, the firm in which Mr. Willard is a partner and/or Mr. Willard had positions in some of the positions mentioned above although positions can change at any time and without notice.

Remember: I wouldn’t rush into a full position all at once in any of these stocks or any other position you’ll ever buy. Patience and allowing the market and time to work to your advantage by buying in tranches is key. Maybe 1/3 or 1/5 of whatever you  might consider to be a “full position” in any particular stock. And I wouldn’t ever have more than 5-15% of your portfolio in any one stock position at any given time. The younger you are and/or the higher the trajectory of your career income, the more concentrated and risk-taking you can be with weighting in your portfolio. But spread your purchases and your risk out over time and over a several positions no matter your age or risk-averse level.

Scaling into a position using an approach of buying 1/3 or 1/5 tranches over time is how I build my personal portfolio positions, but there’s no scientific way to go about investing and trading. Sometimes you have to pay up for the latest tranche but I try to be patient and wait for a temporary sell-off to add to the existing position.

** NOTE FOR NEW SUBSCRIBERS:

If you’re new to TradingWithCody or if you’ve been a subscriber for a while but haven’t acted on much of my strategies yet and/or if you haven’t been in the markets, but you’re sick of getting 0% on your CDs, Treasuries, savings, checking, etc while the markets have been continually hitting all-time highs this year, what should you do now?

Before you ever make any trade, step back and catch your breath before moving any money anywhere. Rank your positions and your whole portfolio and make sure you’re not about to make any emotional moves with your money.

If you haven’t yet read “Everything You Need to Know About Investing” then spend a couple hours doing so, please. It’s a quick read but chock-full of important ideas, concepts and strategies that amateurs and pros alike should understand.

Then, take a look at my own personal portfolio’s Latest Positions and slowly start to scale into some of the ones you like best and/or the ones I have rated highest right now. I’d look to start scaling into a few of the many stocks in the Latest Positions that are at all-time highs along with a couple that we’ve recently featured in our Trade Alerts that I’ve personally been scaling into.

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