Latest Positions: Tesla, Space, Gold and Crypto (PLUS: See How ChatGPT Rewrites My Analysis)

Here is Part 1 of the list my latest personal portfolio positions and most of the hedge fund positions with updated commentary and ratings for each position.

The ratings for each stock go from 1 to 10, 1 being “Get out of this position now!” and 10 being “Sell the farm, I’ve found a perfect investment.” The positions that are bolded are those that I consider to be “core” holdings and am unlikely to ever sell out of them entirely.

Longs –

• Forever assets and other permanent holdings –
  • Media, hedge fund and other private investment/business holdings (9+ because betting on yourself and running a business is always a best bet)
  • Real estate, including the office I work out of, some land and the ranch I live on in NM (6)
  • Physical gold bullion & coins (8)

• (Driverless Revolution) –
  • TSLA Tesla (8) – Elon’s distracted with Twitter. There’s no arguing that he’s spent the last couple months less focused than usual on his two most important and valuable companies — Tesla and SpaceX. You know I always try to “flip” conventional wisdom, and I guess you could argue that he’s probably learning a lot about how to building critical mass and monetizing traffic and I’d imagine that over the next ten years or so both Tesla and SpaceX will have revenue streams that are built around having critical mass of traffic and monetizing it. Imagine in five years when a Tesla robotaxi is driving you around with location and individually-tailored content and ads playing. Or in ten years when you’re spending seven months on a SpaceX spaceship on your way to Mars with lots and lots of time on you hands and limited physical space. You’ll be a valuable target for advertisers. I don’t expect you’ll have to endure a commercial at every corner in your Tesla or at every window in the SpaceX ship, but you can imagine there’s some value in learning how to deliver effective traffic and ads to a targeted audience of your customers. The good news is that with Tesla’s stock finally having this big pull back is that there’s a case to made that Tesla’s a decent value just on its car and semi and cyber truck sales over this year and next. If Tesla sells 2 million cars or more in 2023, the stock will likely be higher than it is right now by 50-100%. If they sell less than 2 million, the stock could be down 20-30% from here. I do think Tesla will sell 2 million vehicles next year and that double potential reward on the upside compared to the downside makes this a pretty compelling stock at $170 or below.

• (The Space Revolution)-
  • SpaceX (9) – SpaceX is by far the most dominant company in the space industry and if it gets the Starship successfully and fully into orbit this year, it’s going to leap the entire space industry into a new trajectory. I also expect that its Starlink business will do an IPO in 2023 or early 2024 and that Starlink will be worth tens of billions when it does the IPO and will then double and be worth a hundred billion or more soon thereafter. That will likely be the match that gets the Space Revolution Bubble started which will enable thousands of space startups to start getting funded at increasingly higher lever until eventually in about five years the whole Space industry dominates the discussion on CNBC and there are hundreds of space companies trading on the public markets for billions or tens of billions of dollars and a few of them will even be worth a hundred billion or half a trillion. And then the bubble will probably pop for a while, but that’s another story.
  • RKLB Rocket Lab (8) – This remains a very speculative but exciting investment. The market hates speculative stocks right now. That’s just the way it is and that might not change for a few months or even longer if the recession and downturn and end of the Fed Put paradigm last long. Then again, Rocket Lab’s developing its rocket ships to be ever larger and the company is making some smart acquisitions to become ever more vertically and horizontally integrated. It is one of the few companies/countries in the history of the planet (at least the recorded history of the planet) to have repeatedly launched rockets and satellites into orbit. The company is likely to grow its topline 50-100% per year for the next two or three years margins will slowly increase if their rocket ships and payloads get bigger and their own plans for a company-owned and operated constellation of satellites become reality.

• (Gold and Crypto Revolution)–
  • Gold/GLD Gold ETF (8) – Gold can be a compelling investment here again for the first time in several years for several reasons: 1) Though the Fed and most central banks are in a tightening phase, it’s quite telling that the Fed’s still not stopped all forms of quantitative easing even as its raising rates. You can’t change human nature and as long as the money supply is controlled by a central body of fallible human beings, it’s going to endlessly devalue its fiat currency. As bitcoin has tanked from $67,000 to $17,000 and as most cryptocurrencies have dropped 90% or more in the last year, the idea that gold’s time as a store of value had passed has passed. I bought some GLD for the hedge fund a few weeks ago and I am increasingly bullish on gold again.
  • BTC Bitcoin (7)–  In the 13 months that it’s been since I helped found the SKTL Space Debris-Cleaning Cryptocurrency because I wanted to learn how 18,000 cryptocurrencies listed on coinmarketcap.com had been created, coinmarketcap.com has added another 4,000 tokens to its list. That’s up from from the 20,000 cryptos that were listed on Coinmarketcap the last time I wrote about this back in April. Despite the higher total number of cryptos, the total market cap of all listed cryptos on Coinmarketcap have dropped by more than 80% this year. I still expect that the Space-Debris Cleaning Crypto that I helped create, SKTLs, will be one of the few of the current batch of cryptos that exist that will still be around in five years.

I thought it’d be interesting and perhaps even value-add to see what ChatGPT says when I tell it to write more based on my above analysis. So…

Cody Willard Input:
Write an article about how Elon’s distracted with Twitter as he’s spent the last couple months less focused than usual on his two most important and valuable companies — Tesla and SpaceX. Argue that he’s probably learning a lot about how to building critical mass and monetizing traffic and imagine that over the next ten years or so both Tesla and SpaceX will have revenue streams that are built around having critical mass of traffic and monetizing it. Imagine in five years when a Tesla robotaxi is driving you around with location and individually-tailored content and ads playing. Or in ten years when people are spending seven months on a SpaceX spaceship on their way to Mars with lots and lots of time on their hands and limited physical space. Those people going to Mars on Starship will be a valuable target for advertisers. Talk about how the good news is that with Tesla’s stock finally having this big pull back is that there’s a case to made that Tesla’s a decent value just on its car and semi and cyber truck sales over this year and next. If Tesla sells 2 million cars or more in 2023, the stock will likely be higher than it is right now by 50-100%. If they sell less than 2 million, the stock could be down 20-30% from here. Make sure include any information, data or analysis that will make your article more insightful to the reader.”

ChatGPT Output:
It’s no secret that Elon Musk, the CEO of both Tesla and SpaceX, has been known to be active on Twitter. In recent months, however, it seems that Musk’s presence on the social media platform has been even more prominent, with many speculating that he has been less focused on running his two companies as a result.

This has raised concerns among some investors and analysts, who argue that Musk’s distraction with Twitter could be detrimental to Tesla and SpaceX, both of which are critical to his long-term vision for the future of transportation and space exploration.

One of the key areas of concern is the fact that Tesla and SpaceX are both in the process of building critical mass and monetizing traffic. For Tesla, this means ramping up production of its electric vehicles and expanding its network of Supercharger stations, while also working on its ambitious plans for a fleet of self-driving cars. For SpaceX, it means developing its reusable rockets and building out its network of satellites to support global broadband internet access.

Both of these initiatives require a significant amount of time, effort, and resources, and it’s crucial that Musk is fully focused on overseeing their progress. However, with his recent activity on Twitter, some are worried that he may be neglecting these important tasks.

But despite these concerns, it’s worth noting that Musk’s experience on Twitter may actually be beneficial to Tesla and SpaceX in the long run. For one, he has likely learned a lot about how to build critical mass and monetize traffic through his interactions on the platform. This knowledge could be valuable as both companies seek to grow and generate revenue in the coming years.

Furthermore, as Tesla and SpaceX continue to develop and expand, there will be ample opportunities to monetize their traffic and user bases. For example, in the future, a Tesla robotaxi could offer location-based and personalized content and advertisements to passengers, while a SpaceX spacecraft on its way to Mars could provide a captive audience for advertisers to target.

In addition to these potential revenue streams, it’s worth considering that Tesla’s stock has recently pulled back, making it a potentially attractive value proposition based on its current and expected car, semi, and cyber truck sales. If Tesla can sell two million or more cars in 2023, the stock is likely to be higher than it is currently by 50-100%. However, if sales fall short of this goal, the stock could potentially be down 20-30% from its current level.

Overall, while Musk’s recent activity on Twitter may be cause for concern among some investors and analysts, it’s important to keep in mind the long-term potential of Tesla and SpaceX and the ways in which they could monetize their traffic in the future. With the right leadership and focus, both companies could continue to thrive and deliver on their ambitious goals.

Cody Willard Input:
Write an article about how SpaceX is by far the most dominant company in the space industry and if it gets the Starship successfully and fully into orbit this year, it’s going to leap the entire space industry into a new trajectory. Talk about how its likely that SpaceX’s Starlink business will do an IPO in 2023 or early 2024 and that Starlink will be worth tens of billions when it does the IPO and will then double and be worth a hundred billion or more soon thereafter. Explain how that will likely be the match that gets the Space Revolution Bubble ingited which will enable thousands of space startups to start getting funded at increasingly higher lever until eventually in about five years the whole Space industry dominates the discussion on CNBC and there are hundreds of space companies trading on the public markets for billions or tens of billions of dollars and a few of them will even be worth a hundred billion or half a trillion. And then briefly mention how the Space Revolution Stock Bubble will probably pop for a while, before eventually making a handful of space companies the most valuable companies in the history of the solar system.

ChatGPT Output:
SpaceX has established itself as the dominant player in the space industry, with its reusable rockets and ambitious plans for exploration and colonization of Mars. If the company successfully launches its Starship into orbit this year, it will mark a significant milestone and could potentially leap the entire space industry into a new trajectory.

One of the key reasons for SpaceX’s dominance is its Starlink business, which involves launching a constellation of satellites to provide global broadband internet access. This initiative has the potential to be incredibly lucrative, and some analysts speculate that the company could potentially go public through an initial public offering (IPO) in 2023 or early 2024.

If that were to happen, it’s likely that Starlink would be worth tens of billions of dollars at the time of the IPO. But that’s just the beginning. Many experts believe that once the company goes public, its value could potentially double and even reach a hundred billion dollars or more in the near future.

This could be the “match” that ignites the “Space Revolution Bubble,” enabling thousands of space startups to receive funding at increasingly higher levels. In just a few years, the space industry could potentially dominate the discussion on financial news networks like CNBC, with hundreds of space companies trading on the public markets for billions or even tens of billions of dollars. A select few of these companies could even be worth a hundred billion dollars or more.

But like all bubbles, the Space Revolution Stock Bubble will eventually pop. This could lead to a downturn in the space industry, with many companies struggling to survive. However, it’s likely that a handful of the most successful space companies will emerge from this period as the most valuable companies in the history of the solar system.

Overall, SpaceX’s dominance in the space industry, combined with the potential for its Starlink business to go public and generate significant value, could potentially spark a revolution in the space industry. While there will likely be ups and downs along the way, the long-term potential for growth and innovation in this field is enormous.

Cody Willard Input:
Write an article about how Rocket Lab remains a very speculative but exciting investment but that the stock market hates speculative stocks right now. Talk about how that might not change for a few months or even longer if the recession and downturn and end of the Fed Put paradigm last long. On the other hand, explain that Rocket Lab is developing its rocket ships to be ever larger and the company is making some smart acquisitions to become ever more vertically and horizontally integrated. It is one of the few companies/countries in the history of the planet (at least the recorded history of the planet) to have repeatedly launched rockets and satellites into orbit. Include a couple paragraphs about how the company is likely to grow its topline 50-100% per year for the next two or three years margins will slowly increase if their rocket ships and payloads get bigger and their own plans for a company-owned and operated constellation of satellites become reality.

ChatGPT Output:
Rocket Lab, a space technology company that designs and manufactures small launch vehicles, remains a highly speculative but exciting investment. Despite its potential, however, the stock market has been wary of speculative stocks in recent months, which could be a potential barrier to the company’s growth.

The current economic climate, characterized by recession and downturn, as well as the end of the “Fed Put” paradigm, has made investors cautious about taking on risky investments. This trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, potentially making it difficult for Rocket Lab to attract investors and raise capital.

Despite these challenges, Rocket Lab is making progress in its efforts to develop larger rocket ships and become more vertically and horizontally integrated through smart acquisitions. The company has already demonstrated its capabilities by launching rockets and satellites into orbit, making it one of the few companies or countries in history to have achieved this feat.

If Rocket Lab continues on this trajectory, it is likely to experience rapid growth, with its topline potentially increasing by 50-100% per year for the next two to three years. Additionally, as the company’s rocket ships and payloads become larger and its plans for a company-owned satellite constellation come to fruition, its margins are likely to increase as well.

Overall, while Rocket Lab remains a highly speculative investment, it is also an exciting opportunity for those willing to take on some risk. The company’s progress in developing its technology and expanding its capabilities make it an interesting prospect for the future of the space industry.

Cody Willard Input:
Write an article about how Gold can be a compelling investment here again for the first time in several years for several reasons: 1) Though the Fed and most central banks are in a tightening phase, it’s quite telling that the Fed’s still not stopped all forms of quantitative easing even as its raising rates. You can’t change human nature and as long as the money supply is controlled by a central body of fallible human beings, it’s going to endlessly devalue its fiat currency. As bitcoin has tanked from $67,000 to $17,000 and as most cryptocurrencies have dropped 90% or more in the last year, the idea that gold’s time as a store of value had passed has passed.

ChatGPT Output:
Gold has once again become a compelling investment for several reasons. First, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve and most central banks are in a tightening phase, the Fed has not yet stopped all forms of quantitative easing. This suggests that the money supply will continue to be controlled by a central body of fallible human beings, which could lead to an ongoing devaluation of the fiat currency.

In addition, the recent decline in the value of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has led many to question the idea that gold’s time as a store of value has passed. As bitcoin has fallen from $67,000 to $17,000 and most cryptocurrencies have dropped by 90% or more over the past year, it has become clear that gold remains a stable and reliable store of value.

Furthermore, the geopolitical climate is increasingly uncertain, with tensions rising between various nations and regions. In such an environment, investors often turn to gold as a safe haven asset, which can help to protect their wealth and hedge against potential economic instability.

In conclusion, gold has once again become a compelling investment for those looking to protect and grow their wealth. Its status as a store of value, combined with the ongoing devaluation of fiat currencies and the uncertain geopolitical climate, make it an attractive option for investors.

— *** —

Man, that ChatGPT is crazy. Part 2 tomorrow.