Latest Positions: Tesla, Space Stocks And Defensive Names

Here is Part 1 of the list my latest personal portfolio positions and most of the hedge fund positions with updated commentary and ratings for each position.

Nice bounce in the markets today, especially in the most speculative and beaten-down names. I’m not making any moves in the personal account today and not doing much of anything trading-wise in the hedge fund either. Homework is the name of the game 90% of the time.

The ratings for each stock go from 1 to 10, 1 being “Get out of this position now!” and 10 being “Sell the farm, I’ve found a perfect investment.” The positions that are bolded are those that I consider to be “core” holdings and am unlikely to ever sell out of them entirely.

Longs –

• Forever assets and other permanent holdings –
  • Media, hedge fund and other private investment/business holdings (9+ because betting on yourself and running a business is always a best bet)
  • Real estate, including the office I work out of, some land and the ranch I live on in NM (6)
  • Physical gold bullion & coins (7)

• (Driverless Revolution) –
  • TSLA Tesla (7) – Do any of you reading this have an EV that’s not a Tesla? Can you actually get one yet? In another two or three years, it’s quite likely that Tesla’s going to sell more cars than any other manufacturer. At higher margins as they sell every car (and truck and semi) that they can make. And Tesla still spends almost nothing on advertising and PR. Will buying Twitter distract Elon and hurt Tesla? Heck, Elon’s got a lot on his plate already with SpaceX, Tesla, Boring Company and everything else he does, so what’s another company to run matter? Seriously though, Tesla remains an incredible company leading an EV Revolution but one that is still overvalued. I mostly hold my shares steady.

• (The Space Revolution)-
  • SpaceX (9) – SpaceX is a monopoly and in case you ever forget just how amazing it is that a privately-held company can become a monopoly in the sending people to space business, just look at all the problems that the United Launch Alliance, made up of Aerojet Rocketdyne; Northrop Grumman; Boeing, is having just getting their pre-launch testing done. Starlink’s going to be worth hundreds of billions of dollars when it finally goes public in another year or two, I do believe and that will be a good way for the general public to invest in a great Space Revolution company.
  • RKLB Rocket Lab (8) – The best space company not-named SpaceX is probably just as likely to develop the ability to send people to space in the next three to five years as the United Launch Alliance is. Rocket Lab is executing and should be able to deliver nearly a quarter of a billion dollars in sales this year, up from $60ish last year. The problem is that the stock is still trading at nearly 15x this year’s sales estimates, so it’s not cheap. Revenues are likely to approach half a billion dollars in 2024, and that could move earnings up to be topping nine figures in 2024 or 2025. So we’re looking at a stock that’s not cheap. I think this company could be worth tens of billions of dollars in a decade from now but it’s not going to be easy getting there.
  • BKSY Blacksky (7-) – What a mess this stock has been. With the Ukraine/Russia War, the demand for space surveillance in ever closer to real-time with ever greater clarity at ever smaller focal points is growing exponentially. I’ll give this company one more quarter to deliver some results or I’ll have to move on and cut large losses here. This has become a small position as the stock has collapsed. What a terrible investment this has been, and mea culpa.
  • RDW RedWire (7-) – Redwire’s a bit of a pick-and-shovels Space Revolution stock and it needs this industry to keep growing quickly if its going to become a good investment. I’m holding a small position in this name.

• (Defensive names)–
  • Gold/GLD Gold ETF (7+) – Gold’s been a better inflation hedge than bitcoin has for the last year and I expect gold to remain in a bullish market for the next year or two but I’m not sure the upside potential is big enough to make ti a great play other than holding onto physical gold bullion and coins.
  • BTC Bitcoin (7)–  I’ve said since 2013 that bitcoin is and remains the de facto standard cryptocurrency of the world and therefore remains the currency most likely to replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency in coming years. It seems clear to me, at least at this point, that the US is definitely, as usual, in the lead on this, mostly because of the fact that it is here in the US where security laws are mostly enforced — and while the banks and giant corporations definitely do their job to erode the rule of law being applied equally to everybody here, the US is still the cleanest shirt in the fiat laundry. More clarity will make more institutions use more cryptocurrency in coming years. That will be good for crypto in general, but we still have about 18,000 silly, stupid and/or fraudulent cryptocurrencies that need to be washed out of the system. Crypto remains over-owned by retail investors. Meanwhile, the transparency inherent in bitcoin and other cryptos has made it so the US and other regulators are now able to track criminal payment flow through the blockchain. Bitcoin is increasingly becoming the one crypto that no criminal wants to use. That’s good for bitcoin.

Part 2 tomorrow.