Latest Positions: Tesla’s Lead Continues, Space And Cryptos
Here is Part 1 of the list my latest personal portfolio positions and most of the hedge fund positions with updated commentary and ratings for each position.
Back in April, I started off our Latest Positions with this note: “Nice bounce in the markets today, especially in the most speculative and beaten-down names. I’m not making any moves in the personal account today and not doing much of anything trading-wise in the hedge fund either. Homework is the name of the game 90% of the time.” That’s still the name of the game. Here’s more homework.
The ratings for each stock go from 1 to 10, 1 being “Get out of this position now!” and 10 being “Sell the farm, I’ve found a perfect investment.” The positions that are bolded are those that I consider to be “core” holdings and am unlikely to ever sell out of them entirely.
Longs –
- Forever assets and other permanent holdings –
- Media, hedge fund and other private investment/business holdings (9+ because betting on yourself and running a business is always a best bet)
- Real estate, including the office I work out of, some land and the ranch I live on in NM (6)
- Physical gold bullion & coins (8)
- (Driverless Revolution) –
- TSLA Tesla (7) – I’d mentioned in a post yesterday that I finally received my Tesla Model S. I ended up with a Model S Plaid, which goes 0-60 in less than 2 seconds. When I wrote about the Model S yesterday, I hadn’t yet tested out the car in Plaid mode, much less having tested out the Cheetah Stance in Drag Strip mode when you’re in Plaid mode. I’d seen videos of people being blown away by the experience and it doesn’t do it justice. Frankly, after having driven around in Plaid mode (there are three Driving settings on the Plaid Teslas: Comfort, Sport and Plaid), I have a whole new respect for Tesla’s technological and engineering advantage over every other car maker. By the time GM or Volkswagen figures out how to make their cars move this fast, it’ll be several years into the future and Tesla’s cars will have new engineering feats that the others will then try to catch up to again. You can buy a fancier car than the Model S or X Plaid — a Mercedes and high end BMW sedans that I used to ride around in all the time when I was almost famous on TV in NYC have nicer leather and interior lighting and fancier wood paneling than the high end Tesla’s do. But much driving around in the Model 3 for the first time back in 2019 made me realize how far Tesla was ahead of every other car manufacturer back then, so too does the driving experience of a rocket ship-like moves in the Plaid make me realize how far Tesla is still ahead of all of the competitors. That doesn’t mean the stock goes straight up and this quarter’s delivery numbers could be tough to hit, but longer term, this company will continue to sell millions of cars and take share as they roll out new form factors for these computers on wheels they call electric vehicles.
- (The Space Revolution)-
- SpaceX (9) – Seventy days have passed since wrote that: “SpaceX is a monopoly and in case you ever forget just how amazing it is that a privately-held company can become a monopoly in the sending people to space business, just look at all the problems that the United Launch Alliance, made up of Aerojet Rocketdyne; Northrop Grumman; Boeing, is having just getting their pre-launch testing done.” Well, ULA finally got their testing of their pre-launch done although it really didn’t get all the way done, they just decided it was close enough for government work. RocketLab is seemingly the only other private space launch company that’s quickly growing and developing new ships for bigger payloads other than SpaceX and I suppose Blue Origin. I continue to think that Starlink’s going to be worth hundreds of billions of dollars when it finally goes public in another year or two, I do believe and that will be a good way for the general public to invest in a great Space Revolution company.
- RKLB Rocket Lab (8) – These are the estimates for Rocket Lab for this year and next:
Revenue Estimate Current Qtr. (Jun 2022) Next Qtr. (Sep 2022) Current Year (2022) Next Year (2023) No. of Analysts 7 7 8 7 Avg. Estimate 49.24M 54.4M 206.23M 322.75M Low Estimate 26.94M 26.94M 107.76M 246M High Estimate 53.5M 68M 257.41M 370.3M Year Ago Sales 11.28M 5.29M 62.24M 206.23M Sales Growth (year/est) 336.50% 928.90% 231.40% 56.50% I bolded the topline growth rates for 2022 and 2023 — 231% and 56% after that. This is the type of growth we’re looking for, even if the markets hate speculative SPACs. I added to it today and will buy more if it drops closer to $3 but slowly. Long-term, I still love this company’s business prospects.
- (Defensive names)–
- Gold/GLD Gold ETF (7+) – Last time, I wrote: “Gold’s been a better inflation hedge than bitcoin has for the last year and I expect gold to remain in a bullish market for the next year or two but I’m not sure the upside potential is big enough to make it a great play other than holding onto physical gold bullion and coins.”
- BTC Bitcoin (7)– Last time: “That will be good for crypto in general, but we still have about 18,000 silly, stupid and/or fraudulent cryptocurrencies that need to be washed out of the system. Crypto remains over-owned by retail investors. Meanwhile, the transparency inherent in bitcoin and other cryptos has made it so the US and other regulators are now able to track criminal payment flow through the blockchain. Bitcoin is increasingly becoming the one crypto that no criminal wants to use. That’s good for bitcoin.” Well, Coinmarketcap now lists more than 20,000 cryptos, meaning that there are 10% more cryptos on Coinmarket now than there were back in April. Despite the higher total number of cryptos, the total market cap of all listed cryptos on Coinmarketcap have dropped by more than half since April. I expect that the Space-Debris Cleaning Crypto that I helped create, SKTLs, will be one of the few of the current batch of cryptos that exist that will still be around in five years.
Part 2 tomorrow.
