Latest Positions: The Final Frontier, Deee-Fence And Little Ol Tesla

Here is a Part 1 of 5 of the list my latest personal portfolio positions and most of the hedge fund positions with updated commentary and ratings for each position, including a couple Trade Alerts.

No surprise that most of the ratings for my long positions are as low as they were back in February when I was worried about the escalating Coronavirus Crisis while the markets, analysts, traders and investors were ignoring the risks it brought. In fact, I employed a new “6+” rating for many of our long positions on our scale of 1 to 10 because I wanted to lower them from a 7-ish level but I don’t think they’re quite as bad as a 6 rating, which would mean I’d consider selling all of that position. The parabolic charts and skyrocketing valuations in many of long positions have me expecting much better buying opportunities in coming days or weeks, even as I clearly still like most of our longs.

The ratings for each stock go from 1 to 10, 1 being “Get out of this position now!” and 10 being “Sell the farm, I’ve found a perfect investment.” The positions that are bolded are those that I consider to be “core” holdings and am unlikely to ever sell out of them entirely.

Longs –

• Forever assets and other permanent holdings –
  • Media, hedge fund and other private investment/business holdings (9+ because betting on yourself and running a business is always a best bet)
  • Real estate, including the office I work out of, some land and the ranch I live on in NM (8)
  • Physical gold bullion & coins (7)
• (Driverless Revolution) –
  • TSLA Tesla (6+) – The market hasn’t been pricing Tesla as a car manufacturer for a while now. Remember when we first bought Tesla last year (2019) while the stock was trading at about 1x the coming year’s (2020’s) revenues estimates. I’d pointed out at the time that if the company traded like a tech company instead of as just a car company that the stock could easily trade at 8-10x the coming year’s revenue estimates. Guess what? The stock is now trading at 12x next year’s sales estimates. That’s not cheap. That’s expensive for a company that’s cranking out 25% gross margins even if it is growing 40% per year topline. I’ve hedged the TSLA position in the hedge fund lately as I do think the risk/reward of TSLA right here right now at at $600 billion market cap isn’t terribly attractive as a buy. That said, we don’t sell Revolutionary companies just because they’re overvalued. Sitting tight.

• (The Space Revolution)
  • SPCE Virgin Galactic (8) – Space, the final frontier. These are the opportunities for the Revolution Investor. Its continuing mission: to envision clear new trends, to seek out new opportunities in new, trillion dollar market places, to boldly go invest no one has invested before. Seriously though, what can I add to that? Look, Space Investing is just now becoming possible. So be patient. Realize that it will take some time for Virgin Galactic and all the other space-related companies to get their technologies perfected, safe and commercialized. But as the costs to get people, supplies, satellites, factories, hotels and other things to space continue to drop dramatically, as more hundreds of billions of dollars start to pour into the private space sector, as the technologies get wildly more advanced in a Kurtzweil-esque exponentially faster way — I want to make sure I’ve got some bets out there in this “space” (sorry, bad pun there) before it goes mainstream. There’s certainly risk in these companies, but I think the huge potential rewards are worth it.
  • SRAC (8) – This is a very early stage company that plans to create revenue by helping SpaceX and other companies navigate around once they get into space. This company should clearly be considered as venture-capital-like investment and not a typical publicly-traded stock like say AAPL.

• (Defensive names) (DEEE – FENCE! DEEE – FENCE!)
  • CPB Campbell’s (6) –  The stock’s been a good defensive play for us, as we got paid a nice dividend and made some nice capital gains since we bought it as the $30s. This is a small position for me and I tend to try to pretend it’s not even there otherwise, I’d probably sell it because I’m tired of this stock. The dividend was over 5% when we bought it, but it’s now at like 3%. I don’t know, it’s hard to like this stock at this level, but I wanted to buy as a forever stock and I’m going to continue to hold a smallish position out of discipline.
  • GLD Gold ETF (7) – Gold looks interesting here as a defensive play and I continue to think it’s a core holding right now. More stimulus, more borrowing, more deficits, more money printing from every central bank around the world are likely to be the main geopolitical trends of 2021, just like they have been for the last, oh, decades?
  • BTC Bitcoin (7) – Well, here’s the long-awaited break above $20,000. I trimmed a little bit of the bitcoin futures (BRR) that I own in the hedge fund today when they hit $21,000 (the futures trade at a light premium to bitcoin). Other than that, this remain the de facto standard cryptocurrency of the world and therefore remains the currency most likely to replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency in coming years.