Making the hardest trade and remembering some Apple history
Tense morning on Wall Street. And as usual, tense morning on Main Street.
Here’s a note from this morning from one of the best, most-seasoned, and steady-as-she-goes money managers I know –
“Very strange markets for me. My Restaurant Strategies portfolios are outperforming. My Low Volatility/High Dividend Strategies outperforming. My Equity Growth Strategies are underperforming by 6%.”
Cody back now. 6% is a huge underperformance for someone as conservative in their stock portfolio as I know this guy is. That is likely a function of Apple’s underperformance and I can tell you that there are thousands of money managers who have been killed by Apple’s 40% decline from its highs last year.
On that note, here’s a speech I gave back in April of 2012 when Apple was spiking above $600 a share. It was called, “Wake up call for Apple investors.”
Watch the speech for some analysis and explanation of how lock-in, platform, eco-system and other Revolution Investing concepts work and how the apply to Apple and why they are so important to the future of Apple’s stock.
I then go into a discussion of Apple’s financials and why I’ve been saying for two years now that I expect to see the stock hit a $1000 price target, some day.
And then I really hit the audience — Apple investors, all of them, as this was the inaugural Apple Investor Summit — as I go through the biggest risks to Apple’s stock and the single biggest risk to Apple’s business prospects in the years ahead. You’ll have to watch the video to find them out.
Finally, there’s about ten minutes of Q&A — you might want to fast forward past the first questioner, as he sort of rambles on and the audience grows restless before I finally get him off the mike, but there are some great questions and back and forth at the end of the video too. You even see Walter Isaacson make a cameo as he moves up to the front row during the Q&A. To watch the video, click on the link below and enter the password: h42Rtz8HJ
http://vimeo.com/user10962617/review/39874144/a703fbce61
Cody Willard at the 2011 Apple Investor Summit, 38:35
‘Wake up call for Apple investors’
And here’s some advice I was giving to our TradingWithCody.com subscribers about that time too (from: Make the hard trade):
As for the markets, the most remarkable thing is simply Apple’s continued straight up ascent. With it being our long-time biggest position, we’ll take it, and I’ve hardly let go of a share so far as I’d told you I was planning on being very gentle about trimming here. But I do plan on continuing to trim a little bit of that position as it is now at $582, up from the $350 it was at just a couple months ago.
You know how good it feels right now? Remember how bad you felt when the mainstream media and the markets were freaking out about the Greece-EU-Crisis a few months ago?
Another old saying you guys should think about is — the hardest trade to make is usually the right one. How hard is it to sell Apple right now? How hard is it to trim down as the markets are going nuts? Then again, how hard was it to buy when the markets were crashed and the Euro was supposedly going to destroy our US economy? Make the hard trade.
Cody back in real-time here. No trades for me today. This is an ugly and tense market and there’s no reason for you to try to make big money when the markets are wound up like this. Let it play out and be patient. Right now, sitting tight is the hardest trade to make. So make the right trade by sitting tight and not over trading.
And don’t forget to join us for this week’s Live Q&A Chat at http://tradingwithcody.com/chat at 2pm EST or email us your question at support@tradingwithcody.com and I’ll include in the transcript tonight.
