Market FOMO, INTC’s Dividend Cut, Holding MP, And Much More
Here’s the transcript from today’s live Q&A chat:
Q. Looks like the bottom just fell out of this market.
A. It got ugly yesterday for sure. You can probably guess that we trimmed some puts yesterday, as they got very profitable in a hurry since I sent out this note last week: “I’m not sure I’m out right bearish or anything but I’m definitely not an outright bull right now like I was back at the end of December when I was putting money to work on common and calls. I like puts on AI, RBLX, RIOT, LYFT, CVNA, SI, PLUG, BE and a few others like that but BE CAREFUL if you’re going to buy puts or short anything. I do this for a living as a HEDGE fund manager, meaning my job is partly to make sure I’m hedged when I”m not outright bullish.” Not sure the market is going straight down. But I’m still pretty cautious.
Q. Cody it seems this market is in greed fomo. And monetary policy now is awful for this market? Could we crash another 30 % here?
A. Yes, it’s possible. I’d say there’s a 80% chance that the markets struggle for most of this year. I’d say there’s a 60% chance the markets drop another 10% in the next few months. I’d say there’s a 15% chance the Nasdaq drops 20% from here this year or next.
Q. You making any trades today?
A. In the hedge fund: I bought some COIN puts earlier when it was up. I bought a little GOOG earlier at $91. Doing a little ebbing and flowing on FSR puts and RIG puts. Nothing big today though. Last time I made big moves was back in late December on the buying side and last week on the shorting/puts side.
Q. What is your prediction on bitcoin? Would it test the bottom again?
A. I think bitcoin will test $10,000 or $12,000 sometime this year or maybe next. Gotta wash out 99% of the silly, stupid and fraudulent cryptos before the bitcoin market bottoms.
Q. Cody, a rating on each of our stocks would be very much appreciated, along with some target prices you would buy.
A. Let’s run through some of our positions and give the rating and where I’d buy more: TSLA 7+/10 I’d look to buy more near $150 (recall I sent out this: “I bought some TSLA calls in the hedge fund and am even buying a little TSLA common around $122 here.” The stock went to $103 a couple of days after that note and is now over $200. UBER 8/10 I’d look to buy more at $33 or so. I’d get aggressive buying more below $30 if it gets there. ROK 7/10 I’d look to buy more near $250. RKLB 7/10 I’d look to buy more near $3. GOOG 8/10 I’d look to buy more around $90 and get aggressive near $80. INTC 7/10 I’d look to buy more near $22. MP 8/10 I’d look to buy more near $25. QCOM 7/10 I’d look to buy more near $110. META 7/10 I’d look to buy more near $130. AMZN 7+/10 I’d look to buy more near $85. Recall that I was indeed buying most of these stocks at or below these “Where I’d buy more” prices back in late December. They might retest those levels in the coming weeks.
Q. Hi Cody, Anything on Immersed? I won’t ask anymore about it. Also, would you buy TSLA here?
A. I just texted the CEO and asked him if there’s any updates he wants to share. As for TSLA see my comments from earlier. I’d rather buy than sell TSLA right now but I was buying common and calls when the stock was $120ish and lower. Not doing much with it right now.
Q. We finally got that dividend cut in INTC. Current take on it and is there a level you’d look to add?
A. They needed to cut the dividend to help fund their major fab building. I’d look to add more near $22.
Q. INTC cuts dividend by 66%.
A. Something we’ve been expecting and I’ve been writing about. Doesn’t change anything in our long-term thesis.
Q. Does INTC’s stake in MBLY factor into your thesis at all? If I’m not mistaken it’s around $30 billion in value currently? Thanks.
A. Yes, I like the MBLY stake but it’s not the main reason to be in INTC
Q. Hey y’all is Cody still holding MP?
A. Yes, Bryce is doing a ton of work on MP this week and we’ll send out an updated write up on it soon. It’s still got to execute but they are very well positioned to grow.
Q. SWAV’s recent quarter was pretty darn good, no? I take it you’re looking for another one or two after this one?
A. Yes, agreed. I want to see a couple good quarters or three in a row.
Q. Morning, I am sending prayers for your health. Looking to add some more SWAV your thoughts?
A. I am holding a SWAV position steady and would like to add more at some point but I’m sitting tight for now. I want to see a good quarter or two out of the company.
Q. I hope this finds you healing up and your family well Any opinion on Oracle?
A. It’s a great company and they are starting to gain some traction in the cloud business with a recent win from Uber and others. I’d rather buy than short ORCL.
Q. Ffie. Any feedback?
A. It blowtorching cash. It’s trying to compete with TSLA, LCID, GM, Stellantis and every other car maker on the planet. It’s probably not going to survive.
Q. Welcome back – best wishes for continued health – back to work – LLAP jumped 83% on new award – any interest for us here?
A. Not right now.
Q. What’s the Cody-Bat-Computer say about TOST?
A. I mentioned it as “bad stock” that I’d look to short in the Trading With Cody Live Q&A Chat on January 25. It’s down about 15-20% since then. I don’t like their lending to crappy restaurants part of their business model.
Q. Awesome article about how “Everybody Thinks They’re An Expert On Everything.” I want to send it to a bunch of blowhards, but they’ll tell me how you and I don’t know anything but somehow, they know it all. Lol. Hope the recovery is going well.
A. Thank you. Blowhards usually do know everything tho! LOL.
Q. WARNING!!! I received an email saying my Metamask account was suspended unless I upgrade my wallet. It’s a phishing email.
A. Wow, thanks for the heads up for everybody. I haven’t gotten anything like that but it makes sense that scammers are sending that kind of phish out.
That’s a wrap. Thank all!
